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6 types of action on the day immediately on the day of post earnings report
I actually don't think this is true. If you study all the triple digit % earnings/revenue beat, there are 6 types of action on the day immediately on the day of post earnings report.1. gap up, trade higher to close (this is ideal, but not often the case)2. gap up, trade lower to close (this is stop loss killer if it claim ORH intraday)3. gap down, trade higher to close (this is the sort I can see an edge if there's a intraday overblown sell off)4. gap down, trade lower to close5. gap up, close within intraday range (this can be a stop loss killer)6. gap down, close within intraday range What happens a few days post ER after volatility settles down is another type of setup, another type of trade. I do agree this can better control risk, and size appropriately. This earnings, there are 173
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Understanding the Infeasibility of '1% Risk to Equity' and Benefits of High ADR% Securities
I’d like to clarify why aiming for a 1% risk-to-equity ratio is often unrealistic due to position sizing constraints. I’ll also compare lower ADR% products, like $SPDR S&P Retail ETF(XRT)$ at 1.41% ADR, with higher ADR% products, like $Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3X Shares(RETL)$ at 4.06% ADR (a 3x leverage of XRT, sharing the same price structure on intraday timeframes).In the example below, I simulate an entry price and stop-loss price based on XRT and RETL high and low range and automate the calculation of position size % required for a “1% risk” approach relative to account equity (excluding existing unrealized gains/losses of other positions).Using a 1% risk model, you would need to allocate almost
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Breakout Review - SOXS, AMZN, MBLY, TRN & AFG
1. $Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bear 3x Shares(SOXS)$ SOXS - Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear X Shares - smalecap company performance since short breakout: -5.64%.2. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ AMZN - Amazoncom - megacap company performance since long breakout: 3.68%.3. $Mobileye Global Inc.(MBLY)$ MBLY - Mobileye Global Class A Common Stock - largecap company performance since long breakout: 9.26%.4. $Trinity(TRN)$ TRN - Trinity Industries - midcap company performance since long breakout: 13.02%.5. $American(AFG)$ AFG - American Financial Group - largecap company performance since long
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Breakout Review - RUSHA, GPC, UNH, EYE & HAFC
1. $Rush Enterprises(RUSHA)$ RUSHA - Rush Enterprises A - midcap company performance since long breakout: 16.18%.2. $Genuine Parts(GPC)$ GPC - Genuine Parts Co - largecap company performance since short breakout: -12.86%.3. $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ UNH - UnitedHealth Group orporated - megacap company performance since long breakout: 12.40%.4. $National Vision(EYE)$ EYE - National Vision Holdings - smalecap company performance since long breakout: 14.87%.5. $Hanmi(HAFC)$ HAFC - Hanmi Financial Corporation - smalecap company performance since long breakout: 25.42%.
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Option Trades (Week 46 - 2024) Sold 1 lot of the following $HOOD 20241213 31.0 PUT$ $CLSK 20241213 15.0 PUT$ as part of the weekly income strategy. It is difficult to make any move when the stock price is moving fast but the increase in IV provides for the premium even at lower delta. This would require a fair bit of risk management with the run up in prices. However, I continue to bet on this being the start of the rally. Do exercise caution. Lets Freaking Go Please! (LFGP)
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$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$
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$DraftKings Inc.(DKNG)$
TOP黑豹钻石拳: Let’s go 🚀🚀🚀
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$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Tesla stock (TSLA) gained nearly 9% on Monday, sending shares to their highest level since early 2022 and giving the company a market cap north of $1.1 trillion amid optimism that the electric vehicle maker will be a big winner under the Trump administration.
TOPImpressive surge! Congrats on the gains! [Wow]
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$Amprius Technologies Operating Inc(AMPX)$ Surprised but happy at the gain in the last few days. They're not doing anything new as far as I'm aware, only news is submitting a battery sample for tests.
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$Zoom(ZM)$ 📈🔺🅱️🆄🅻🅻🅸🆂🅷🔺📈 📈📉📈 Zoom Escapes the Doom Loop! 📉📈📉 Kia ora Tiger traders! $ZM (Zoom Video Communications) is finally showing signs of breaking free from the notorious “doom loop” that’s had it trapped for months! As a short-term swing trader focused on the 50-Day MA, I’m seeing strong signals of a potential breakout. Let’s unpack this exciting setup! 🚀 Breaking Free from the Doom Loop! • Chart Insight: The chart is showing Zoom emerging from a prolonged downtrend, teasing a breakout pattern that could spell the end of its “doom loop” cycle. • Current Price: $84.11 (Pre-Market) with a recent high at $85.58, suggesting renewed upward pressure. 🧭 🔑 Key Levels & Targets • Support: Around $76 – acting as a solid floor for buyers to re-enter.
TOPBased on the available news and relevant information, there are a few key points that may explain the recent movement of Zoom Video Communications (ZM) stock: Zoom Emerging from Downtrend: The chart analysis suggests that Zoom is breaking free from a prolonged downtrend, potentially indicating a breakout pattern that could end its "doom loop" cycle. Positive Volume Surge: There has been an uptick in capital inflow, indicating increased buying interest from larger market players who may anticipate a breakout. Technical Indicators: The focus for swing traders is the 50-Day Moving Average (MA). If Zoom maintains its position near this mark and momentum builds, it could trigger further buying interest. Analyst Sentiment: While analysts remain cautious with a majority "Hold" sentiment, current technical indicators suggest potential upside for investors who look beyond analyst hesitation. However, it's important to note that market movements can be influenced by various factors and are inherently uncertain. It is always essential to conduct thorough research, consider other fundamental factors, and carefully manage risks before making investment decisions. *Risk disclaimer: The information provided is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in stocks involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. It is important to consult with a qualified financial professional or advisor before making any investment decisions.
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$Twilio(TWLO)$ 📈🔺🅱️🆄🅻🅻🅸🆂🅷🔺📈 🤑🚀 TWLO Set to Launch: Big Breakout After Hibernation! 🚀🤑 Kia ora Tiger traders! Twilio Inc. ($TWLO) is taking off after a long accumulation, like a rocket warming up on the launchpad! This is the kind of breakout swing traders dream of, especially around the pivotal 50-Day MA. Grab your trading glasses and let’s dissect TWLO’s breakout potential, the highlights, and the heavy-hitting numbers to know: 🔥 Quick Market Stats & Performance Highlights • Current Price: $95.55 (Pre-Market) 🚀 • Daily Change: +1.59% 📈 • Volume: Spiked to 3.15M, showing serious interest! 💡 Analyst Insight: Buy-Hold-Sell Ratings • 🟢 Buy: 13% (Top analysts give it the green light!) • 🟡 Hold: 42% (Some prefer the sidelines…) • 🔴 Sell: 10% (A rar
TOPTwilio Inc. (TWLO) Analysis Company Overview: Twilio Inc. is a cloud communications platform that enables businesses to engage with their customers through various channels, including voice, messaging, and video. The company operates in the cloud technology industry, which is expected to grow rapidly in the future. Earnings and Forecast: Twilio's earnings forecast shows expected growth in the coming years. For the fiscal year 2024, the forecasted EPS is $3.63, with a gross income of $4.42 billion and an estimated EBIT of $693.86 million. The company's earnings forecast for the fiscal year 2025 and 2026 also shows steady growth. Trend Analysis: Support Price: As of November 11, 2024, the support price for TWLO is $80.05. Resistance Price: As of November 11, 2024, the resistance price for TWLO is $94.15. Average Cost: The average cost for TWLO as of November 11, 2024, is $76.03. Capital Flow: The 5-day capital flow data indicates fluctuations in flow, with both positive and negative values observed. However, the 1-day data shows a net inflow of $9.283 million. Analyst Recommendations: Out of the total analysts surveyed, 4 recommend, 11 buy, 13 hold, and 3 recommend underperforming the stock. Analyst Target Price: The mean target price estimated by 27 analysts is $80.62, with a low estimate of $50.00 and a high estimate of $110.00. Earnings Result: For the 2024 Q3 earnings report, EPS was reported as -$0.06, with a net profit margin of -0.86%. Capital Flow Update: UBS and Goldman Sachs have increased their price targets for TWLO, indicating renewed confidence in the stock. The recent capital inflow, alongside hedge funds showing interest, suggests positive sentiment toward TWLO. Stock Price: As of November 12, 2024, the stock price of TWLO is $94.05. Outlook Twilio's breakout suggests the potential for significant upward momentum, similar to Amazon's breakout in 2015. The positive capital flow from UBS and Goldman Sachs, as well as hedge funds, further emphasize the potential growth of the stock. However, it's important to note that investing in the stock market carries inherent risks, and stock prices can fluctuate. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. It is recommended that investors conduct their own research and analysis before making any investment decisions.
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$Alibaba(BABA)$ 📈🔺🅱️🆄🅻🅻🅸🆂🅷🔺📈 🐉📈🐉 Baba’s Dragon Awakens: Ready for a Roar? 🐉📈🐉 Kia ora Tiger traders! Alibaba ($BABA) has been in the hot seat, with recent price action indicating a suspenseful setup. Here’s the rundown on the latest market pulse and why this chart has my short-term trader instincts on full alert! 🚨 Latest News & Performance Highlights • Current Price: $95.42 (+1.31%) 📈 • Pre-Market Action: $92.20 (-3.37%) 📉— Volatility alert! • Earnings Countdown: Mark the date—Baba’s earnings drop on Nov 15, with high expectations across the board. Anticipation is mounting for China’s e-commerce titan to deliver. Source: CNBC $BABA LAUNCHE
TOPAlibaba (BABA) Stock Analysis Please note that the following analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Business Overview: Alibaba is a leading Chinese multinational conglomerate specializing in e-commerce, technology, and retail. The company operates through various segments, including Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media and Entertainment, and Innovation Initiatives. Alibaba has a dominant position in the Chinese e-commerce market, with its platforms serving millions of consumers and businesses. The company continues to expand its reach globally and is a key player in the digital transformation of retail and technology. Earnings and Future Growth: Alibaba's latest earnings report is scheduled for November 15, and there are high expectations across the board. Analysts forecast strong growth in earnings per share (EPS), gross income, and EBIT for the next few years. 2025FY Forecast: EPS of 62.29 CNY, gross income of 1,005.95 billion CNY, and EBIT of 162.94 billion CNY. 2026FY Forecast: EPS of 70.88 CNY, gross income of 1,088.73 billion CNY, and EBIT of 178.53 billion CNY. Trend Analysis: The chart for Alibaba shows a descending wedge pattern, which is nearing breakout potential. This pattern is historically significant and suggests a potential reversal. Analysts are leaning bullish on Alibaba, with a majority of them recommending a buy or hold position. Target Price and Recommendations: Analysts have provided target price estimates for Alibaba stock. Mean Target Price: $120.21 (USD) Low Target Price: $85.00 (USD) High Target Price: $148.00 (USD) It's important to note that target prices are subjective and can vary among analysts. It would be wise to assess these estimates alongside your own analysis and risk tolerance. Recent News and Capital Flow: Alibaba recently launched an AI-powered search tool called Accio, designed to help small businesses source supplies more efficiently. Initial tests show promising results, with a 40% boost in purchase intent compared to traditional searches. This development could have a positive impact on Alibaba's growth potential. In terms of capital flow, Alibaba has experienced both inflows and outflows over the past few days. Capital flow data can be indicative of investor sentiment and can influence short-term stock price movements. Conclusion:Based on the analysis, Alibaba is positioned at a crucial juncture. The descending wedge pattern on the chart suggests a potential breakout, pending confirmation post-earnings. Analysts are generally optimistic about the stock's prospects, with a majority recommending a buy or hold position. However, it's essential to note that investing in the stock market carries inherent risks, and stock prices can fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct thorough research, evaluate your risk tolerance, and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Disclaimer: The above analysis is based on available data and does not constitute investment advice. The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions. Investing in stocks involves risks, and it is important to understand the potential risks and rewards before investing.
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A Golden Entry Opportunity?
On Tuesday, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) announced its plan to offer $425 million in Convertible Senior Notes due 2030, subject to market conditions. This private placement, aimed at qualified institutional buyers, includes an option for initial purchasers to buy an additional $75 million in notes within a 13-day period following issuance, bringing the potential total to $500 million. Announced pre-market, the notes will be senior unsecured obligations, with semi-annual interest payments and a maturity date of November 15, 2030, unless converted, repurchased, or redeemed earlier. They may be converted into cash, shares, or a combination, at Upstart’s discretion, with terms like interest rate and conversion rate to be set at pricing. This article is written by Shernice, if you like
TOPThis could be a solid chance for a rebound. Keep an eye on the conversions and market reactions
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$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$
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$PYPL 20241129 90.0 CALL$ Hopefully it continues the upward trend
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$AEM SGD(AWX.SI)$ AEM - Spotted some buying activities today that saw the price edging up 8 cents to 1.38 looks rather interesting! The volume seem quite high which is a positive signal! If she can stay above 1.37 and rises up further to 1.48 we may see a reversal trend. Crossing over 1.48 smoothly, she may continue to rise up to cover the Gapped at 1.55 to 1.60. Pls dyodd. https://sporeshare.blogspot.com/2024/11/aem-spotted-some-buying-activities.html
TOPYou’re onto something! Watching for that upward momentum could really pay off if the trend holds.
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$Singtel(Z74.SI)$ SingTel - First Half results is out! Underlying Net Profit is up 6 percent to 1.19b. INTERIM dividend increased from 5.2 cents to 7 cents plus 1.9 cents a total of 8.9 cents , superb! This is much higher than my expectations of 5.2 cents. Nice sets of financial numbers! Total operating revenue of 6.992b seem quite stable. EDITA increased 9% to 1.95b. NCS and Optus achieve EBIT growth of 40% and 58%. Singtel expects its EBIT growth for the current FY ending next March to be in the range of low double digits, an upgrade from the range of "high single digits to low double digits" EX 20th Nov. 8.9 cents x 2 = 17.8 cents. Yield is about 5.65% at 3.15. Pls dyodd. https://sporeshare.blogspot.com/2024/11/singtel-first-half
TOPWow, fantastic results indeed! 🎉❤️
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Summary of Allianz's Global Insolvency Report (2024-2026)
This is the summary of Allianz’s Global Insolvency Report dated 15 Oct 2024. The source can be found in their website. Observations: 2024 looks to be an uptrend for insolvencies. Allianz Research is expecting the insolvencies to reduce over the following years. Summary: Global Insolvency Outlook 2024: Significant increase in insolvencies: Expected to rise by 11%, surpassing pre-pandemic levels in two-thirds of countries. Key sectors affected: Construction, retail, and services have seen the most significant impact. Large insolvencies are on the rise: Particularly in Western Europe, especially in the manufacturing sector. 2025-2026: Continued high insolvency levels: Slowing growth, geopolitical tensions, and tighter financing conditions will contribute to this trend. Job losses: Over 1.6 mi
TOPIt’s wise to stay cautious as insolvencies rise.
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