To The Moon

My Investing Muse (25Nov24) Layoffs & Closure news Northvolt chief warns of faltering green transition after battery maker’s bankruptcy Europe’s best-funded start-up raised $15bn but was left with just $30mn in cash - FT Layoffs continue across the freight and logistics industry, with companies announcing 1,277 job reductions and six distribution facility closures across the country. - FreightWaves Norway's Equinor is trimming 20% of the staff from its renewable energy division and will compete for a smaller number of new projects as it streamlines the business unit, the company told Reuters on Thursday. - Reuters Bay Area tech company AppLovin announces layoffs a week after skyrocketing to $97.7B value - SF Gate Government Waste & Inefficiency Here are some posts about Government

Public Holidays There will be no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, or China in the coming week. America celebrates Thanksgiving from 28 Nov 2024 and here is wishing all a blessed Thanksgiving. Economic Calendar (25Nov24) Notable Highlights The most watched news in the coming week is the Core PCE Price Index - the main reference used by the Federal Reserve to reference inflation in the US economy. A lower figure can rally a bullish market that is hoping for more rate cuts. There will be an update on America’s GDP (Q3) estimated at 2.8%. China’s Manufacturing PMI will be announced in the coming week. The last reading was 50.1, which represents growth in the sector. China is one of the global factories and if the manufacture continues to expand, this implies the growing demand of the r

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!TECHNICAL: Gold prices opened today's trading in a distinctly positive stance close to the $2700 handle, reinforcing expectations for a continuation of the bullish trend on an intraday and short-term basis, and opening the way for the attainment of my next awaited target of 2710, the breach of which is key to continued gains to visit the recently recorded all-time high of 2790! $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ Therefore, the bullish trend will continue to be suggested for the next period of time and a break below 2665 will stop the bullish rally, push prices lower and test the major bullish trend line around 2628 before any new upside attempts.Expect today's trading range to be betwe

The article by Ray Dalio on LinkedIn titled "What's Coming: The Changing Domestic and World Orders Under the Trump Administration" discusses the anticipated changes in policy and approach under a second Trump administration. Here are the key points: Domestic Policy Reforms: Trump's approach is likened to a corporate raider executing a hostile takeover, aiming for efficiency and productivity in government operations. This includes significant changes in personnel, reduction of costs, and integration of new technologies. The focus will be on industrial policies to enhance productivity, potentially at the expense of environmental concerns, poverty alleviation, and social equity issues like diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI). Economic and Financial Policies: There will be a push towards bu

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Someone explain market movements. If a company has strong earnings, raises guidance , breaking profit records, breaking analysts expectations , why does the stock go down dramatically, if it’s in an industry such as retail, cloud, and AI ? Why a $10 drop.Such was 2021 to 2022 when AMZN was $185 and fell to $80 as the NAZ did the same thing that year was 16,000 fell 6000 points to 10,000. Now banks, airlines, oil, all went down with the market, yet AMZN continued to grow and make money while losing 100 points makes no sense[Lovely][Lovely][Lovely]

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ Technical: Gold prices opened today's trading session with a clear upward move, close to testing the previously broken bullish trend line which now turns into a key resistance level at 2615, noting that the EMA50 meets this level adding more strength to it, while the stochastic indicator has clearly lost its positive momentum.These factors prompt us to suggest continuing the bearish corrective trend in the upcoming trading session, mainly waiting for a test of the 2513 support, noting that a break above 2615 will stop the negative scenario of the downtrend and lead the price back to the main bullish track again.Expect today's trading range to be be

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 18Nov24 Observations: The MACD indicator is about to complete a top crossover. This implies a potential downtrend coming up. Moving Averages (MA). Both the MA50 line and the MA200 line are on an uptrend. Both MA50 and MA200 lines are below the last candle. Thus, it could be read as bullish for both the mid and the long-term. The 3 Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are on an uptrend but looks to converge soon. This implies a potential change of the current trend. Chaikin’s Monetary flow (CMF) shows a downtrend. This implies more selling momentum than buying. The CMF seems to be moving sideways - applying similar momentum by both buyers and sellers. From the 18 indicators, 9 point to a “Buy” rating (using daily intervals) and 9 point to a “Sell” rati

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (18Nov24) Notable Highlights S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI. The last update came in at 48.5, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector. S&P Global Services PMI is expected to expand following a strong previous showing at 55.0. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is a good reflection of the manufacturing sector. Existing Home Sales is a good reference for real estate’s health. Initial jobless claims will be announced. The Federal Reserve uses this as one of the key macro data references as it balances inflation and employment in the economy. Crude Oil Inventories can be seen as forward indicators of market demand and consumption. If the tren

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ 190 to 200 after earnings200 to 210 after Trump's victory210 to 220 after the next 0.25 rate cut[Grin][Grin][Grin]I believe it’s a good stock for long term investment!!!Getting stronger everyday. Two days left to trade this week can we clear $220

Hello everyone! Today I want to share some macro analysis with you!1.After the release of today's CPI data, gold rose in the short term, but it still could not break through the key resistance of 2620! XAUUSD sell orders continue to make profits! Gold will continue to fall in the short term! Waiting for the arrival of 2547! Have you entered the sell market? $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ 2.XAUUSD continues its strong downtrend as sell orders continue to take significant profits! Bears are coming! Sell orders continue to be traded today! If 2547 breaks down along the way, gold will reach the next support near 2525-20!Follow me to learn more about analysis!!

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading analysis with you!1. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ in disagreement with INDEX: (1) With all major indexes hovering around ATH, VIX refuses to budge--staying well above the previous low. (2) that said, the current setup of VIX also doesn't point to any major correction or selloff for indexes. (3) expect range-bound for a weekFollow me to learn more about analysis!!

This is the summary of Allianz’s Global Insolvency Report dated 15 Oct 2024. The source can be found in their website. Observations: 2024 looks to be an uptrend for insolvencies. Allianz Research is expecting the insolvencies to reduce over the following years. Summary: Global Insolvency Outlook 2024: Significant increase in insolvencies: Expected to rise by 11%, surpassing pre-pandemic levels in two-thirds of countries. Key sectors affected: Construction, retail, and services have seen the most significant impact. Large insolvencies are on the rise: Particularly in Western Europe, especially in the manufacturing sector. 2025-2026: Continued high insolvency levels: Slowing growth, geopolitical tensions, and tighter financing conditions will contribute to this trend. Job losses: Over 1.6 mi

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you!1.All-Green Set-up with $.SPX(.SPX)$ closed over 6K for the first time. A small red doji on the daily chart, but with the strong bullish momentum, today's top will be tested a few times before any tangible corrective moves.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!!

News and my thoughts from last week (11Nov24) Image Spending within our means is basic prudence. It's not just about what is accomplished but how it is managed. What we need is a realistic mix of news so that we can best navigate and take advantage of the different opportunities presented. Image The average American household spends $270 a week on Groceries - X user Visual Capitalist Supply chain has always benefited from global crisis. Coming to first principal, we must be ready to change on my when a different set of key information is presented. Thank you The All in Podcast and Chamath Container ships continue to line up outside Canada’s busiest import gateway as carriers wait for a lockout of union longshore employees to end. - FreightWaves The mortgage rate has risen by nearly 1% sinc

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (11Nov24) Notable Highlights Consumer Price Index (CPI) should be the most watched macro news for the coming week. CPI is typically the indicator used to capture inflation. We are expecting CPI YoY to be 2.4%. This should bring some volatility to the market as this will form of Fed’s considerations coming to the next interest rate adjustment. PPI shows the inflationary pressures that affects producers. If this figure goes up, there is a good chance that the producers would pass on the inflation they faced onto the consumers. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales figures will be released in the coming week. This is a good indication on consu

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (11Nov24) Notable Highlights Consumer Price Index (CPI) should be the most watched macro news for the coming week. CPI is typically the indicator used to capture inflation. We are expecting CPI YoY to be 2.4%. This should bring some volatility to the market as this will form of Fed’s considerations coming to the next interest rate adjustment. PPI shows the inflationary pressures that affects producers. If this figure goes up, there is a good chance that the producers would pass on the inflation they faced onto the consumers. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales figures will be released in the coming week. This is a good indication on consumer demand. Initial joble

Commercial Real Estate Crisis? The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices spiked to 9.4% in October, the highest in 11 years. The delinquency rate of office CMBS loans has now risen by 5 TIMES over the last 2 years. Delinquencies are officially rising at a pace only seen after the 2008 Financial Crisis. This puts the office CMBS delinquency rate on track to surpass an all-time high of 10.3% seen in July 2012. Meanwhile, the overall US CMBS delinquency rate rose to 6.0%, the most since the 2020 pandemic. The commercial real estate crisis is real. X user The Kobeissi Letter Can the wheels come off the CMBS soon? This should be owned by the current administration. Other News: Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to 9.4%, Highest Since Worst Months after th

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical ideas with you!1.Technical analysis can always fit your imagination: $.SPX(.SPX)$ Follow me to learn more about analysis!!

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with u!1.2024, the Year of Bull: (1) for the last year, the Bull-Bear Spread has been consistently positive, except for one week in April 2024. (2) the largest gap is 32%--meaning there are 32% more bulls than bears. (3) now, the difference is 8.5%, a healthy spread for remaining days. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Follow me to learn more about analysis!!

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you!1."Trump is not good for China because of Tariffs"Let's look at this objectively on $JD and $BABA before we come to any conclusion outside of hard data. $JD.com(JD)$ & $Alibaba(BABA)$ charts below.2.I fully stick to this thesis. If you don't understand the timeframe or logic, just move on & look at the 100+ other charts/thesis' that I post about, extremely simple stuff. $Alibaba(BABA)$ $JD.com(JD)$ $HSI(HSI)$ $KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$

Public Holidays There will be no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, or China in the coming week. America celebrates Thanksgiving from 28 Nov 2024 and here is wishing all a blessed Thanksgiving. Economic Calendar (25Nov24) Notable Highlights The most watched news in the coming week is the Core PCE Price Index - the main reference used by the Federal Reserve to reference inflation in the US economy. A lower figure can rally a bullish market that is hoping for more rate cuts. There will be an update on America’s GDP (Q3) estimated at 2.8%. China’s Manufacturing PMI will be announced in the coming week. The last reading was 50.1, which represents growth in the sector. China is one of the global factories and if the manufacture continues to expand, this implies the growing demand of the r

My Investing Muse (25Nov24) Layoffs & Closure news Northvolt chief warns of faltering green transition after battery maker’s bankruptcy Europe’s best-funded start-up raised $15bn but was left with just $30mn in cash - FT Layoffs continue across the freight and logistics industry, with companies announcing 1,277 job reductions and six distribution facility closures across the country. - FreightWaves Norway's Equinor is trimming 20% of the staff from its renewable energy division and will compete for a smaller number of new projects as it streamlines the business unit, the company told Reuters on Thursday. - Reuters Bay Area tech company AppLovin announces layoffs a week after skyrocketing to $97.7B value - SF Gate Government Waste & Inefficiency Here are some posts about Government

The article by Ray Dalio on LinkedIn titled "What's Coming: The Changing Domestic and World Orders Under the Trump Administration" discusses the anticipated changes in policy and approach under a second Trump administration. Here are the key points: Domestic Policy Reforms: Trump's approach is likened to a corporate raider executing a hostile takeover, aiming for efficiency and productivity in government operations. This includes significant changes in personnel, reduction of costs, and integration of new technologies. The focus will be on industrial policies to enhance productivity, potentially at the expense of environmental concerns, poverty alleviation, and social equity issues like diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI). Economic and Financial Policies: There will be a push towards bu

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!TECHNICAL: Gold prices opened today's trading in a distinctly positive stance close to the $2700 handle, reinforcing expectations for a continuation of the bullish trend on an intraday and short-term basis, and opening the way for the attainment of my next awaited target of 2710, the breach of which is key to continued gains to visit the recently recorded all-time high of 2790! $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ Therefore, the bullish trend will continue to be suggested for the next period of time and a break below 2665 will stop the bullish rally, push prices lower and test the major bullish trend line around 2628 before any new upside attempts.Expect today's trading range to be betwe

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ Technical: Gold prices opened today's trading session with a clear upward move, close to testing the previously broken bullish trend line which now turns into a key resistance level at 2615, noting that the EMA50 meets this level adding more strength to it, while the stochastic indicator has clearly lost its positive momentum.These factors prompt us to suggest continuing the bearish corrective trend in the upcoming trading session, mainly waiting for a test of the 2513 support, noting that a break above 2615 will stop the negative scenario of the downtrend and lead the price back to the main bullish track again.Expect today's trading range to be be

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Someone explain market movements. If a company has strong earnings, raises guidance , breaking profit records, breaking analysts expectations , why does the stock go down dramatically, if it’s in an industry such as retail, cloud, and AI ? Why a $10 drop.Such was 2021 to 2022 when AMZN was $185 and fell to $80 as the NAZ did the same thing that year was 16,000 fell 6000 points to 10,000. Now banks, airlines, oil, all went down with the market, yet AMZN continued to grow and make money while losing 100 points makes no sense[Lovely][Lovely][Lovely]

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (18Nov24) Notable Highlights S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI. The last update came in at 48.5, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector. S&P Global Services PMI is expected to expand following a strong previous showing at 55.0. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is a good reflection of the manufacturing sector. Existing Home Sales is a good reference for real estate’s health. Initial jobless claims will be announced. The Federal Reserve uses this as one of the key macro data references as it balances inflation and employment in the economy. Crude Oil Inventories can be seen as forward indicators of market demand and consumption. If the tren

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (11Nov24) Notable Highlights Consumer Price Index (CPI) should be the most watched macro news for the coming week. CPI is typically the indicator used to capture inflation. We are expecting CPI YoY to be 2.4%. This should bring some volatility to the market as this will form of Fed’s considerations coming to the next interest rate adjustment. PPI shows the inflationary pressures that affects producers. If this figure goes up, there is a good chance that the producers would pass on the inflation they faced onto the consumers. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales figures will be released in the coming week. This is a good indication on consumer demand. Initial joble

This is the summary of Allianz’s Global Insolvency Report dated 15 Oct 2024. The source can be found in their website. Observations: 2024 looks to be an uptrend for insolvencies. Allianz Research is expecting the insolvencies to reduce over the following years. Summary: Global Insolvency Outlook 2024: Significant increase in insolvencies: Expected to rise by 11%, surpassing pre-pandemic levels in two-thirds of countries. Key sectors affected: Construction, retail, and services have seen the most significant impact. Large insolvencies are on the rise: Particularly in Western Europe, especially in the manufacturing sector. 2025-2026: Continued high insolvency levels: Slowing growth, geopolitical tensions, and tighter financing conditions will contribute to this trend. Job losses: Over 1.6 mi

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (04Nov24) Notable Highlights The most watched event of the coming week will be the US presidential election. The results will likely affect American and global sentiment towards business and the conflicts in the various regions. With presidential candidate Trump promising to end the conflict quickly, this should bring some relief to the market though the defense industry should suffer. The next most important news will be the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is due on Thursday night US time. The general forecast is looking at a 25-basis point cut. The recent inflation data from PCE would leave the Fed with some consideration as inflation remains s

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (28Oct24) Notable Highlights The most important macro data of the coming week would be the core PCE price index. This is the preferred indicator used by the Federal Reserve coming to inflation. If the figure remains heightened, may be required to review their coming interest rate decisions. There are a few important job-related data that will be released, starting with JOLTS job openings which reported 8.04 million jobs in the previous report. The other important job-related data will include the ADP non-farm employment change, average hour earnings, nonfarm payrolls for October, and unemployment rates. These figures would be part of the consideration by the Fed

My Investing Muse (04Nov24) Layoffs & Closure news Surprise, surprise…   August jobs revised: 159K to 78K (-81k)   Sept jobs revised: 254K to 223K (-31k) Chevron Corp. indicated potential US job cuts as part of a new cost-cutting plan. - LiveMint Manulife Financial has cut hundreds of jobs in its global wealth and asset management business, representing about 2.5 per cent of the division’s staff. - Business Times Publicis Groupe to lay off up to 200 employees at its digital agencies The holding company let go of more than 100 people at its media shops last week - Adage Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard Lays Off 87 Workers in Restructuring Effort - The Crimson Intel's biggest revenue decline in five quarters to hit amid broad layoffs and missed AI boom - Calcalistech Dropbox

News and my thoughts from last week (11Nov24) Image Spending within our means is basic prudence. It's not just about what is accomplished but how it is managed. What we need is a realistic mix of news so that we can best navigate and take advantage of the different opportunities presented. Image The average American household spends $270 a week on Groceries - X user Visual Capitalist Supply chain has always benefited from global crisis. Coming to first principal, we must be ready to change on my when a different set of key information is presented. Thank you The All in Podcast and Chamath Container ships continue to line up outside Canada’s busiest import gateway as carriers wait for a lockout of union longshore employees to end. - FreightWaves The mortgage rate has risen by nearly 1% sinc

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 18Nov24 Observations: The MACD indicator is about to complete a top crossover. This implies a potential downtrend coming up. Moving Averages (MA). Both the MA50 line and the MA200 line are on an uptrend. Both MA50 and MA200 lines are below the last candle. Thus, it could be read as bullish for both the mid and the long-term. The 3 Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are on an uptrend but looks to converge soon. This implies a potential change of the current trend. Chaikin’s Monetary flow (CMF) shows a downtrend. This implies more selling momentum than buying. The CMF seems to be moving sideways - applying similar momentum by both buyers and sellers. From the 18 indicators, 9 point to a “Buy” rating (using daily intervals) and 9 point to a “Sell” rati

Commercial Real Estate Crisis? The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices spiked to 9.4% in October, the highest in 11 years. The delinquency rate of office CMBS loans has now risen by 5 TIMES over the last 2 years. Delinquencies are officially rising at a pace only seen after the 2008 Financial Crisis. This puts the office CMBS delinquency rate on track to surpass an all-time high of 10.3% seen in July 2012. Meanwhile, the overall US CMBS delinquency rate rose to 6.0%, the most since the 2020 pandemic. The commercial real estate crisis is real. X user The Kobeissi Letter Can the wheels come off the CMBS soon? This should be owned by the current administration. Other News: Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to 9.4%, Highest Since Worst Months after th

News and my thoughts from last week (28Oct24) Should we treat this as a concern for Bank of America and the bigger banking sector after Berkshire dumps $10 Billion worth of shares? - DaiyHODL Credit ratings agency Moody's revised France's outlook to "negative" from "stable" on Friday, over mounting uncertainty that the country will be able to curb widening budget deficits, but maintained its rating on French debt at Aa2. - Reuters In the first nine months of this year, 60 non-standard products tied to LGFVs have defaulted or warned of repayment risks, up 20% from the same period last year, according to data compiled by Financial China Information & Technology. - Business Times AWS CEO on AI & Energy: "If you think about these generative AI models... estimates suggest that in two to

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (21Oct24) Notable Highlights Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales figures will update us on the real estate market. S&P Global US manufacturing PMI was 47.3 previously. A figure of under 50 indicates a contraction. Are we able to see a rebound in the manufacturing sector? S&P Global US services PMI was 55.2 previously. This implies growth in the services sector. Will this sector continues its growth? Durable Goods Orders contracted by 0.9% previously. Investopedia defines Durable Goods as: new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of long-lasting manufactured goods (durable goods) in the near term or future. Will this be good news for

Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, Hong Kong, America, or Singapore in the coming week. Economic Calendar (28Oct24) Notable Highlights The most important macro data of the coming week would be the core PCE price index. This is the preferred indicator used by the Federal Reserve coming to inflation. If the figure remains heightened, may be required to review their coming interest rate decisions. There are a few important job-related data that will be released, starting with JOLTS job openings which reported 8.04 million jobs in the previous report. The other important job-related data will include the ADP non-farm employment change, average hour earnings, nonfarm payrolls for October, and unemployment rates. These figures would

News and my thoughts from last week (04Nov24) There are an increasing number of data points that would show that the US is in a recession. The reason we can’t see it is the distortion caused by government hiring and spending Countries thrive via its private economy. Not money printer spending by the government. Non-farm payrolls today + the revisions to August and September on top of data like this below should be concerning. - X user and Billionnaire Chamath Palihapitiya Singapore is on the radar for 74,000 ultra-rich UK foreign residents hit by the tax change. These wealthy foreign UK residents contributed £6.2 billion in direct tax revenue in 2023 Can this lead to imported inflation for Singaporeans? - Business Times According to a recent SEC filing, Karp sold shares over three days, to

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!China’s GDP has grown 13 times since 2001Since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, its GDP has increased 13-fold (Chart 2). However, the Shanghai Composite Index has grown by only 1-fold (Chart 3). In contrast, during this same period, U.S. GDP has grown 2.6-fold (Chart 1), while the Dow Jones has increased more than 4- fold. Will China’s stock market eventually catch up with its GDP growth? Chart 1 Source: TradingView Chart 2 Source: TradingView China’s GDP grew the most when the world entered the Covid lockdown While the rest of the world was in lockdown, with most of us working from home and shopping online, China’s manufacturers were supplying global demand. As shown in Chart 2, China’s GDP experienced it