To The Moon

First share options large order, $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ bullish range:

buy $AMD 20230623 135.0 CALL$

sell $AMD 20230623 145.0 CALL$

The institution bought the spread strategy$AMD 20230616 115.0 CALL$ $AMD 20230616 125.0 CALL$ last week and then closed and rolled it before Thursday's close, with the strike price changing to a higher 135-145 and the option expiration pushed back a week, bullish on AMD's follow-up performance.

In fact, I've seen this 115-125 strategy before, but I haven't thought about Nvidia's earnings.

buy $AMD 20230915 130.0 CALL$

sell $AMD 20230915 160.0 CALL$

The institution is also bullish on AMD's future performance, with shares near new highs by September. After all, Nvidia is at a new high, so it is inevitable that AMD will test the previous high.

Now that the trading is over, let's start the story. This is a companion article to <Here are a few tips on how bears think>: Here are a few tips on how bulls think.

After watching for the first half of the year, I came up with a very counter-intuitive conclusion about this year's deals:

When the risk of the US stock market rises, you can consider long AI sector.

Not only the bears, but also the bulls. If not, the rest of this year's market crisis, will ‘happen’ to be saved by AI sector.

Nvidia's earnings came on a day when a U.S. debt ceiling deal was also taking shape:

Who on Thursday remembered the debt crisis that had been played up for weeks? Nvidia is up 25%, and nobody's paying attention to the debt crisis, okay? The US debt crisis is nothing compared to the AI's hot prospects. Breach of contract? The world is rushing to invest in such promising economies, right?

I was watching the Nvidia trendline break while reading this tweet, and it felt like a very familiar scene. Another market crisis, another AI rescue.

That's right, the March 9th Silicon Valley bank explosion. The next week on March 15, OpenAI launched GPT-4, sensational the whole market, in the technology stocks led by the market smoothly rebound.

On March 9, the day of the crisis, when most of the market money was running away, some institutions quietly bought 15,000 lots of call options$MSFT 20230721 300.0 CALL$. I later found out how crazy they were to spend $6 million aggressively buying out-of-the-money call options in that environment. Now it seems that I was too naive, looking back is really interesting.

A coincidence can only be called a coincidence the first time it happens.

To put it bluntly, AI is the best knife stopping tool of the year. It's not just Wall Street bears who take advantage of the trend. There are also plenty of Wall Street officials in the U.S. government who take advantage of the trend even better.

On Friday night, May 19th, the markets were keenly focused on a closed-door meeting at the White House to negotiate the national debt. While the markets were watching the partisan divide, Yellen quietly struck a deal with the ceos of the big banks: There should be more consolidation in the banking sector.

Ms Yellen has also been good at timing meetings to quietly get the banks out of the way in the shadow of the big issue of national debt while the market is focused on it. The financial sector has been aggressively shorted, and it is not hard to imagine big banks behind it. This is a rare opportunity to carve up quality assets.

I've written about how to target small banks for better takeovers, but bears are also painstakingly: Here are a few tips on how bears think.

If I, a wild stock trader, saw a problem, would the Fed, Treasury and SEC not?

I have to say that Yellen is very skilful, go straight to the meeting and say the question: This year is full of opportunities, I know you want to buy small banks. Make acquisitions, but don't touch the government's bottom line.

After the meeting, can you guess what $SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF(KRE)$ 's big option order is?

sell $KRE 20231215 26.0 PUT$

Clearly know small banks this year, no longer short, but do sell put, Wall Street thirsty short incarnation warm men.

The potential financial crisis has been eliminated by Yellen, and the prosperous economic outlook has been backed by AI, and the macroeconomic data is not bad. Is the national debt crisis still a thing? In the absence of a recession or a crisis, it's hard for the Republicans to push the Democrats on the national debt alone.

I know there are some people out there who think Nvidia is up too much and it's due for a little pullback and want to short it, but I think at least until the debt ceiling is resolved.

In the end, the above is basically a reminder of two things to pay attention to when trading:

1. When the market risk rises, observe whether there is abnormal out-of-the-money call option movement of AI concept stocks. Whether it was a bullish press release$MSFT 20230721 300.0 CALL$ or a bullish earnings report$NVDA 20230616 375.0 CALL$, I fell in the same place.

2. When market risks rise, do not short AI stocks because of high valuation. I suspect Wall Street bears are pondering this question at the same time. The bears will use the opportunity to cause a crisis, and the bulls will not only use the opportunity to blow up short positions.

Look forward to the next market crisis, Mr. Huang or Microsoft will continue to brag.

Seriously, the first half of this year has been an amazing one, seeing bears sniping at small banks, using the FOMC as a cover story, and then being named and shamed by the government. In fact, the real level is the bulls, in the bears ready to take advantage of the panic planning to do a big job, accurate sniper blast. It was a good show.