Sell put to earn premium and prepare for Oct. rebound! My target price for AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, NVDA

Let's review the overall market and the trading opportunities in the stocks I've been monitoring.

The interest rate decision lands, and it's as hawkish as expected, which is also in line with common sense. Anyone claiming it's unexpected must have their own problems. The 'higher for longer' stance was set as early as last year, why didn't they believe it?

This basically confirms that there will be another interest rate hike in November this year, and it's time to start pricing it in. The current market adjustment also aligns with historical patterns seen in September. For those who are unsure or confused about the market's direction, I sincerely recommend keeping most of your funds in Tiger Vault for now.

Another currently focused event is the government shutdown. Personally, I don't think this will have a significant impact, and it's mainly a short-term disruption, or you could even call it an opportunity. Looking back to the shutdown in 2018, it caused a strong initial shock, but its impact on the overall market was short-lived.

I personally believe that these disruptions may be resolved in early October, and then the market's focus will shift to earnings season. If we anticipate a stable market in October, then the substantial premium from the current downturn is really attractive. Don't miss out, everyone.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ has already shown a clear oversold condition with a short-term rebound. However, it may continue to dip to the levels seen in June, roughly around 4250-4220, or even possibly testing 4200.

 

 

$Apple(AAPL)$ and $Microsoft(MSFT)$ have shown relative strength. One is due to decent sales data for iPhone 15, and the other is Microsoft's event yesterday.

I’m holding $Apple(AAPL)$’s short put with strike price of $160

As I mentioned before, after the Apple event, I sold puts with a strike price of 160. My current view remains unchanged, and I'm holding the $Apple(AAPL)$ short puts with a strike price of 160. Furthermore, if the overall market heads lower, there's a good chance $Apple(AAPL)$ could reach to this level.

I just sold put of $Microsoft (MSFT)$ at $300 yesterday

And due to the late-day weakness, I'm currently in a paper loss. I sold some puts with a strike price of 300. The starting point for the gap-up in May's earnings report was at level around $290.

Personally, I believe that the buying opportunity in this pullback should be at $290 level. Given the significant gap in May, I'm not sure if it will completely fill, so my plan is to start with a small number of sell puts at 300 and then another batch at 285.

Even $Microsoft(MSFT)$ retraced to yesterday's levels, its year-to-date increase of approximately 33%. The average annual return over the past decade has been around 27%.

In the last ten years, there was only one year of negative returns, which makes it a strong performer. So, my expectation is to buy in below 300, and there may be more short-term retracements, but it's a long-term safety play.

 

I sold $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ put at $225; and my desired strike price is $200

Ever since Morgan Stanley sets a target price of 400, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ has been very strong, and it seems like the bearish sentiment from Goldman Sachs hasn't had much impact.

Previously, I had chosen a strike price of 200 for my TSLA sell puts, but $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ has risen to high after the bullish PT. Last night, I adjusted my strike price target of 225, purely out of the necessity to manage my positions.

TSLA finally started filling the gap from last night, which is quite substantial, spanning from 240 to 260. My plan is to enter with some positions at 225 just in case I miss the opportunity, and my target at 200 remains unchanged. TSLA is expected to release September delivery data on October 2nd, and I'm looking forward to getting on board.

 

I will sell put of $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ at $365 (expires on 20th Oct.) tonight

Despite the recent pullback of nearly 100 from its peak above $500, $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ still has a year-to-date gain of a staggering 180%. It's just been on quite a run.

The starting point for the gap-up after NVIDIA's May earnings report was around $365, which is my first target for buying. Then there's the mid-gap level at $330, followed by the lower end at $300.

If it retraces to $300, it would mean the year-to-date gain drops to 100%, and the forward P/E ratio goes back to around 20, which, while not low, is acceptable with a certain premium.

 

I haven't started selling puts yet, and my strike price plan is within $365. With the accelerated decline in the market, I will start selling puts tonight. I'm considering the October 20th expiry with a strike price of $365. I just checked, and the premiums for the $350 strike price have also become quite good, so I might consider those as well.

 

 

 

# How to Sell Put Options and Earn Weekly or Monthly Income

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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  • Universe宇宙
    ·2023-09-22
    @TigerGPT How have the month October perform for the past 20 years.
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    • TigerGPTReplying toKittyBruno

      Based on the historical data from the past 20 years, the stock market's performance in October has been mixed. There have been instances of both positive and negative returns during this month. It is important to note that past performance does not guarantee future results.

      Regarding the correlation between October and market crashes, there is a phenomenon known as the "October Effect" or "October Crash." Historically, some significant market crashes, such as the Black Monday crash in 1987 and the global financial crisis in 2008, occurred in October. However, it is essential to understand that correlation does not imply causation. While October has seen some market downturns, it is not the sole determinant of market crashes.

      It is crucial for investors to consider various factors, including economic indicators, geopolitical events, and company-specific news, when making investment decisions. Diversification, risk management, and a long-term investment approach are also key strategies to mitigate potential market risks.

      Reference articles:

      Options -- The Striking Price: Volatility Is Looming. Here's How to Play It. -- Barron's  

      Stock Market Drop Worst Since March. Is It September or Something More Sinister?  

      Why Stocks Tend To Decline Or Crash In Autumn: VIX Seasonality And The October Effect  

      October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?  

      Data Strategies To Prepare Portfolios For Volatility  

      2023-09-23
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    • KittyBrunoReplying toTigerGPT
      Though October brings volatility with it, it does not always bring market crashes
      2023-09-23
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    • TigerGPTReplying toMyrnaNorth

      Based on the relevant information I have found, there are several methods to measure the level of volatility in the stock market. One of the most commonly used methods is the calculation of standard deviation of returns. Another method is the use of the VIX index, which measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. Additionally, the average true range (ATR) indicator can also be used to measure volatility by calculating the average range of price movement over a certain period of time.

      2023-09-23
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  • frostiix
    ·2023-09-22

    Massive gains to be made whenever MSFT trades much higher, before the OCTOBER Earnings in my opinion.😁

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  • zookie
    ·2023-09-22

    Yes, the policy stance is also very clear, and the market has almost reached a consensus on this.

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  • snixxx
    ·2023-09-22

    Overall, it appears that there are more bears than bulls in the U.S. stock market right now.

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  • jingli
    ·2023-09-22

    The current trend of Tesla is uncertain, but I really want to buy Tesla.

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  • CryptoInvestor91
    ·2023-09-29
    Should we just sell first and buy low? Lol
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  • AugustineMac-
    ·2023-09-22

    Almost Guarantee AAPL in the red today! Buy nov 17 puts

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  • Agxm
    ·2023-09-25
    Havent oct already dropping like crap.
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  • cxyhb
    ·2023-09-23
    Ty. Why choose 20 oct for selling put
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  • LEESIMON
    ·2023-09-23
    [Love]Good
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  • KSR
    ·2023-09-23
    👍
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