JOLTs Spark US Market & Cushion Tesla Fall?
US job openings rose more than expected in October 2024.
This as investors continue to dissect the pace of labour market slowdown amid questions over how much further the Fed will slash interest rates over the next year.
(1) Jobs Openings.
On Tue, 03 Dec 2024, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed there were 7.74 million jobs opening at the end of October. (see above)
This is an increase from September’s 7.37 million:
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That has been revised lower from initial reading of 7.44 million reported on 29 Oct 2024.
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And it is the lowest since January 2021.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected jobs opening to be 7.51 million.
(2) Hiring Rate.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed 5.31 million hires were made during the month, down from September’s 5.58 million hires.
Hiring rate fell to 3.3% from 3.5% seen in September.
(3) Quit Rate.
In Tuesday's report, quits rate, a sign of confidence among workers, rose to 2.1% from the 1.9% in September.
Total quits increased to 3.3 million in October, reversing a recent downtrend and hitting the highest level since May.
Non-Farm Payroll.
JOLTs’ data kicked off a busy week of labor market reports, with US Non-farm payroll report slated for release on Fri, 6 Dec 2024.
Economists expect the report to show a reversal from the dismal October employment report that many believed was heavily impacted by hurricanes and worker strikes.
Forecast.
November Non-farm payroll report is expected to show the US labor market added 220,000 jobs in the month, up from the 12,000 monthly job additions seen in October.
The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.1%.
CME Fedwatch Tool.
As of Tuesday morning, markets were factoring a nearly 75% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by -0.25% at its final meeting of the year on 18 Dec 2024, per the CME FedWatch Tool.
US 3 Composite Indexes.
US market did not react favourably to jobs report JOLT, that has a limited impact on financial markets as it is released with a 2-month delay.
Dow Jones underperformed, while S&P 500 and the Tech index fared better.
By the time trading ended:
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DJIA: dipped by -0.17% (-76.47 to 44,705.53).
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S&P 500: added +0.05% (+2.73 to 6,049.88). Closed at record high.
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Nasdaq: advanced by +0.40% (+76.96 to 19,480.91). Closed at record high.
Stock Of The Day.
On Tue, 03 Dec 2024, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ fell -1.6% after a series of news bring about weakness to the EV maker. (see above)
Firstly, Delaware judge has denied CEO Elon Musk's $56 billion pay package for a second time. Judge McCormick said that Tesla’s legal team and Board of directors, could not hope to flip a decision “based on evidence they created after trial.”
Secondly, data from the China Passenger Car Association showed that Tesla's EV sales in China fell -4% YoY to 78,856 EVs in November 2024. (see above)
Month-over-month, deliveries of China-made Model 3 and Model Y vehicles recorded a +15.5% increase.
In a bid to ramp up year end EV sales, Tesla has extended zero-interest financing of up to 5 years for its Model 3 & Model Y cars in China, by another month to end-December.
This will be the 5th such extension since it rolled out the scheme in July 2024.
There’s certainly more to “Tesla achieved EV sales target in China”, that meets the eye.
Last but not least, Tesla has emailed Cybertruck line workers at Giga Austin telling them to take the next 3 days off on Dec. 3-5.
Cutting shifts on Cybertruck production line likely means Tesla is controlling inventory, that could be the result of slowing sales.
Just this August, Tesla stopped taking orders for its least expensive Cybertruck (retailed at $61,000), hinting at demand concerns as more expensive Foundation Series trucks piled up in inventory.
Will Tesla continue to dip further OR will it bounce back up like it did in the past!
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Do you think Tesla’s falling YoY November sales is a concern, going into Q4 2024 ?
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Do you think there is more upside or downside to Tesla in the immediate to short term ?
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Job openings are up, showing the labor market isn't slowing as quickly as expected, which could affect the Fed's rate cuts. But what’s grabbing attention is Tesla—down 1.6% after a judge denied Musk’s $56B pay package and weak EV sales in China. Plus, they’ve cut shifts for Cybertruck production. Could this be the start of a bigger dip for Tesla, or will it bounce back like before?
Tesla doesn't know, but Musk is a yyds
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