To The Moon

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$

The Q4 earnings report was solid, but the market's demand for surprises is extremely high:

• Quarterly revenue grew by 18%, beating expectations by nearly $2 billion, with astonishing demand for Blackwell.

• Q1 gross margin of 71%, slightly below guidance.

• Q1 revenue guidance midpoint of $43 billion, higher than expectations.

• Q2 revenue forecast adjusted from $44.868 billion to $46.592 billion.

• FY26 revenue and non-GAAP EPS adjusted from $185.737 billion / $4.21 to $196.746 billion / $4.44.

• FY27 revenue and non-GAAP EPS raised to $230.917 billion / $5.38, previously $212.818 billion / $4.98.

After the earnings report, Morgan Stanley analysts raised their price target from $152 to $162.

I’d like to gift Wall Street analysts a couplet:

• First Line: Tesla only has PowerPoint presentations, but with grand narratives, it holds the banner of intelligence.

• Second Line: Nvidia grows steadily, but demand sustainability remains questionable.

• Horizontal Inscription: Shameless!

After the earnings release, the stock price fluctuated between -1% and 2%, completing a double kill on option values at the open. At-the-money option IV dropped from 126 to 70.

The new positions opened on Wednesday’s options aren’t very important—they’re mostly last-minute bets on the earnings report. Let’s focus instead on this week’s expiring open interest.

• The highest open interest for calls is at the $150 strike.

• The highest open interest for puts is at the $140 strike.

In theory, closing at $140 would be ideal, but considering that the primary sellers of the $140 puts are retail traders, a drop would actually benefit market makers.

A Friday close above $130 would be most favorable for market makers.

However, closing between $120–130 is also reasonable. As previously mentioned, there’s a buyer who has placed several hundred million dollars on straddles around the $125 strike, buying both calls and puts to bet on high volatility. I suspect that market makers’ strategy throughout March will revolve around this guy. Once he closes his position and exits, Nvidia will likely have room to rise.

Considering the recent mediocre market trends, next week I’ll stick to a conservative sell put strategy, choosing an out-of-the-money $110 $NVDA 20250307 110.0 PUT$ .

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

Although the big bearish $370 put $TSLA 20250620 370.0 PUT$  has not yet been closed, there are signs of a bottom forming, such as short targets becoming more unified, with positions concentrating around $250.

Additionally, extremely out-of-the-money puts have entered the market, such as a large $100 put $TSLA 20260116 100.0 PUT$ , where 9,000 contracts were opened with a total transaction value of approximately $2 million, expiring in January 2026.

This type of extremely out-of-the-money entry indicates that bearish sentiment has been sufficiently hyped up in the market. Those who didn’t short at $350 are now buying extremely out-of-the-money puts, making them easy targets for losses.

Don’t be fooled by the high number of bullish option positions. They’re mainly institutional weekly bull call spreads, with an expectation that Tesla’s price will stay below $310 next week.

I think next week’s delivery report will be a turning point. I’ll open a sell put $TSLA 20250307 250.0 PUT$  at $250.

$KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$

On Wednesday, KWEB and FXI had different focuses for their option positions.

KWEB continues to be bullish, with large orders targeting a range of $38–42, with more than 30,000 contracts opened, expiring in April.

Institutions believe that KWEB will likely surpass its October highs, albeit with a delay compared to previous expectations, possibly by the end of March. Hence, the chosen expiration date is in April.

• Opened buy $KWEB 20250417 38.0 CALL$ .

• Opened sell $KWEB 20250417 42.0 CALL$ .

  

$iShares China Large-Cap ETF(FXI)$

Compared to KWEB, FXI’s bullish positions are focused on covered calls, mainly selling calls expiring in May–June. Bearish positions, however, remain focused on the short term.