To The Moon

On the first trading day of July, US stocks finish mixed as investors weighed a host of US economic data and comments from Fed chair Jerome Powell to gauge the timing of any interest rate cuts, all the while as H2 2025 got underway.

Speaking at a central banking conference in Sintra, Portugal, Mr Powell said he could not foretell if July was too early for a rate cut.

It is going to depend on the economic data, (same narrative Mr Powell shared during June’s post FOMC conference) and the FOMC team will go meeting by meeting, to determine the time for interest cut.

When it was time to call it a day:

• DJIA: +0.91% (+400.17 to 44,494.94).

• S&P 500: -0.115 (-6.94 to 6,198.01).

• Nasdaq: -0.82% (-166.84 to 20,202.89).

Economic Reports.

(1) ISM Manufacturing PMI.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI report was released on 01 Jul 2025. (see above)

For June 2025, US manufacturing registered 49.0, up from May’s 48.5 and was marginally above market forecasts of 48.8.

This latest report indicates that US manufacturing activity has contracted for the 4th consecutive month.

The only consolation was the pace of contraction has slowed compared to previous month.

Incidentally, the Fed references the ISM Manufacturing PMI report, as part of its economic assessment.

Continued contraction could influence the Fed to consider interest rate cuts or other measures to stimulate growth, especially if accompanied by other signs of economic weakness.

(2) Jobs Opening and Labour Turnover Surveys (JOLTs).

On Tue, 01 Jul 2025, latest US JOLTS report (for May 2025) was released.

It showed jobs opening had surged to 7.77 million, above analysts’ forecast of 7.32 million and is a significant MoM increase of 374,000.

However, but a decline in hiring indicated the market may have slowed.

However, the JOLTs also indicated that hiring has declined by 112,000 in the same period, indicating that market may have slowed.

This was concur by Annex Wealth Management, Chief economist, Brian Jacobsen:

• Despite a large jump in job openings in May, the economy continues to be stuck in Powell's 'no hire, no fire' equilibrium.

• It's not a stable equilibrium.

• Taking the weak ISM Manufacturing data into considerations, things may tilt towards a weaker job market over the Summer.

Traders and investors will be looking out for the latest Jobs report due out Thu, 03 Jul 2025 for greater clarity on US labour market, to help shape “expectations for rate cuts” from the Fed..

US Tax Bill.

Also, in a bid to beat the self-imposed 04 July 2025 deadline, US Senate has passed Trump’s tax bill by the thinnest of margins.

It now heads back to the House of Representatives for final approval.

That should not be an issue as both chambers of Congress (House of Rep & Senate) are predominantly controlled by Trump's Republican party members.

As commented by Per Stirling Capital Management, Director, Robert Phipps:

• The market has already deemed, the Tax Bill, was ultimately going to happen.

• Hopefully, the decision-makers will choose a solution that isn’t too hard on the budget or US debt.

• It is a very potentially damaging bill because of what it does to the deficit and US national debt.

However, at the opposite end of the spectrum - US banks think the bill could boost US economy.

On Sun, 29 Jun 2025, the American Bankers Association said it “strongly supports” the many provisions within the Bill for the “much needed tax relief” offered.

According to Nomura, Chief economist for developed markets, David Seif:

• Trump’s tax bill would likely help the US economy over the next few years.

• Especially since taxes are set to rise in 2026, when parts of Trump’s 2017 tax bill expire.

• For example, the “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act”, passed in 2017, included (a) lower income tax rates, (b) greater child tax credits and (c) generous deductions for businesses.

• Without congressional action, many provisions under the 2017 Act will expire by end 2025.

• That could lead to less spending by families and businesses.

• Short-term appeal of the tax bill is its ability to avert a sharp fiscal contraction in 2026.

• This is because it let businesses quickly write off new investments that may boost investment in the next few years, but could lead to less investment later on.

By then, Trump’s 2nd president term would have come to an end. He will gladly hand over a bigger US national debt to the next incoming president to worry.

Every president has followed the same playbook, that has caused US national debt to balloon, out of control.

CYN Stock Price Movement.

On a day where US market performance was mixed, so was $Cyngn Inc(CYN)$.

Cyngn Inc. is a US-based autonomous vehicle (AV) technology company specializing in developing and deploying autonomous driving software and solutions for industrial organizations, such as manufacturers and logistics firms.

Its core products include:

• DriveMod suite, which automates material handling vehicles like tuggers and forklifts.

• Cyngn Insight for fleet management and data analytics.

The recent buzz centers on Cyngn’s:

• High-profile partnerships (notably with $NVIDIA(NVDA)$).

• Rapid expansion in industrial automation.

• And a $32 million capital raise that secures its financial footing through 2027.

All these have fueled investor excitement and significant stock price movement.

Stock Price Movement.

On 26 Jun 2025, CYN had dramatic rally of over +300%, when its share price surged to around $20.80.

The sharp increase was due to news of the high-profile collaboration with Nvidia, that spotlighted Cyngn as a key robotics innovator leveraging Nvidia’s Isaac platform for autonomous industrial vehicles.

However, on 01 Jul 2025, when US major indexes hit a minor turbulence, CYN fell by -11.11% to $12.80 per share, further eroding its peak stock price.

Will CYN continue to pull back OR make a remarkable comeback to the $20 peak or higher ? The plot thickens.

• NVDA, JPM, UNH - H2 2025 Best US Stocks ? Wed, 02 July. Picked post.

• AAPL chose GSAT is Elon Musk's Starlink loss. Tue, 01 July. Picked post.

• US Market Cont'd Rally, For How Long ? Mon, 30 June. Picked post.

• Do you think Trump’s Tax Bill will boost US market to climb to new highs ?

• Do you think inflation will continue to cool in the coming months, “forcing” the Fed to cut interest rate?

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