To The Moon

Today marks the beginning of the 2nd half of 2025.

Before we aimlessly plunge headlong into an extremely “positive” US market, it will be prudent to take stock of what have transpired (so far) and what are “work-in-progress”.

Hopefully from it, we could find clues of what could be deliberated investment choice as we continued on the 2025 investment journey.

2025 Events - Part 1

2025 Events - Part 2

Based on above diagram, these have been “focal” events in H1 2025:

• Broken down into different categories (by colours) - Economy, Market, Geopolitics, Tech & Everything else.

• All categories’ statuses can be further sub-divided into - Happened, Hasn’t happen & Developing.

Due to real estate, focus will be on Category with “Developing” status and how it may affect US market.

Events that have come true “history”, while those that have yet to materialize, it’s a 50-50 probability, there is still time to react when it happens.

Developing Events Affect US Markets

The most market-relevant developing events include:

• S&P 500 projected to make new highs with 10-15% returns

• US Bitcoin strategic reserve implementation driving broader adoption.

• Global trade restructuring amid US tariff implementations.

• Healthcare facing AI and regulatory disruption.

• OpenAI's AI-first hardware product launch.

• Global M&A and IPO activity rebounding.

These trends point toward continued market expansion driven by:

• AI innovation.

• Financial sector strength.

• Domestic economic policy advantages.

Top 3 Sectors in H2 2025.

1. Technology/Artificial Intelligence

Performing stock: $NVIDIA(NVDA)$

The convergence of OpenAI's hardware developments and ongoing AI infrastructure buildout creates a perfect storm for semiconductor leaders.

NVIDIA remains the dominant force in AI chip architecture, and with OpenAI moving into hardware, demand for NVDA’s high-performance computing infrastructure will accelerate dramatically.

NVDA's (a) data center revenue growth and (b) expanding AI partnerships — position it to capture the majority of this expanding market.

Traders, punters and US market seemed to agree with NVDA’s continual dominance because its stock price has been on a tear for the past 4 weeks. (see below)

• For June 2025, NVDA has risen by +15%, ending June 2025 on a bang at $157.99 per share.

• Once again, NVDA has superseded $Microsoft(MSFT)$ to re-gain the #1 Market cap stock.

2. Financial Services

Recommended Stock: $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$

Developing events like “rebounding M&A/IPO activity” and “US Bitcoin strategic reserve adoption” creates multiple tailwinds for major financial institutions.

JPMorgan will benefit from increased investment banking fees as deal activity resurges, while its (a) early blockchain initiatives and (b) digital asset capabilities position it to capitalize on Institutional Bitcoin adoption.

Elevated interest rates from strong economic performance further enhance its net interest margins.

In Q1 2025, in JPM’s quarterly earnings, net interest income came in at a whooping $23.4 billion vs $0.2 billion, one year ago.

Like NVDA, market and traders seems optimistic about US’s #1 financial institute as well. (see below)

• For June 2025, JPM has risen by +9.54%, ending June 2025 on a bang at $289.91 per share, just shy of its peak of $292.65.

• Comparatively speaking, $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ past month performance was a modest +2.73% gain only.

• Similarly, past month performances for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq (where JPM is a part of) came up to +4.23%, +4.53% and +5.86% respectively only.

3. Healthcare Technology

Recommended Stock: $UnitedHealth(UNH)$

Healthcare's AI and regulatory disruption creates opportunities for vertically integrated players who can leverage technology to reduce costs while maintaining quality.

UnitedHealth's Optum division is already implementing AI-driven care management and predictive analytics.

These investments help UNH reduce costs while maintaining high-quality care.

As traditional healthcare faces disruption, UNH's scale and technology investments allow it to emerge stronger while smaller competitors struggle with regulatory compliance costs.

• On 30 Jun 2025, UNH made a modest gain of +2.38%.

• UNH is still -47.96% off its peak of $599.47, year-to-date.

• UNH is poised to outperform broader market returns as it's central to transformative industry trends.

Heathcare sector remains a bright spark going into H2 2025, unlike Energy sector whose upside has dimmed a little, as a result of tension de-escalation between Israel-Iran.

Market consensus:

• The S&P 500 is projected to have a generous 10-15% returns.

• The 3 sectors and mentioned stocks will likely outperform broader market gains as they are positioned at the center of the most transformative developing trends.

As long as US market remains buoyant, I am quietly confident that NVDA and JPM will continue to perform. Verdict is still out for UNH though.

• AAPL chose GSAT is Elon Musk's Starlink loss. Tue, 01 July. Picked post.

• US Market Cont'd Rally, For How Long ? Mon, 30 June. Picked post.

• PLTR : A $1 Trillion company by 2027 ! Maybe ? Mon, 30 June. Picked post.

• Do you think JPM will crack the $300 ceiling anytime soon or by end Summer ?

• Do you think UNH will make further inroads as it attempts a comeback ?

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