To The Moon

KEY Questions：

1. Is the crude oil futures market still worth investing in 2022?

2. What‘s the main reasons that may influence the oil Market ？

3. Besides Oil futures, Oil stocks, what Oil ETFs can investor keep an eye on?

Oil stocks generally had a good year in 2021. U.S. oil prices ended the year around the psychologically important $70 per barrel range.

Both contracts are trading near their highest levels in a month. So far this Year，U.S. West Texas Intermediate ($(WTI)$) crude increases 49.32%.The Benchmark Brent crude（$(BRNT)$）got a rise of 66.4%.

It's no secret that oil stocks are highly dependent on oil prices, Oil and natural gas stocks posted five of the 20 top gains among S&P 500 stocks so far this year.

Related oil and gas production stocks also performed very well, for example:

Shares of Exxon ($(XOM)$) gained nearly 49% since the start of 2021. Dow Jones stock Chevron $((CVX)$)is up nearly 40%. U.S. producer EOG Resources ($(EOG)$) has gained 84%, Pioneer Natural Resources ($(PXD)$) rallied more than 65% and Continental Resources ($(CLR)$) spiked more than 173%.

Question 1?

Is the crude oil futures market still worth investing in?

Firstly, we collect some expection of oil price in 2022 from professional Investors:

• Bank of America raised its 2022 WTI crude oil price forecast from US$71 to $82/barrel.

• Barclays predicts that the WTI contract price will increase from the current rate of $69.62 to an average price of $77 in 2022.

• Goldman Sachs analyst Damien Courtalin said earlier this month that the oil distribution may reach US$100 per barrel in 2022.

• Morgan Stanley analysts lowered their oil price forecasts for the first quarter of 2022 on the grounds of concerns over the Omi Keron mutant strain, but raised their forecasts for oil prices in the third quarter from US$85 to US$90.

• The Bank of Montreal in Canada predicts that oil demand will hit a record in 2022 and will remain strong in the next few years, although oil demand temporarily declined in the first quarter due to variant disease strains.

Many investment bank analysts said that due to strong demand and not so strong supply, oil prices will rise in 2022. But the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) doesn't agree.Instead, the government agency is predicting that the WTI price per barrel will drop to $62 by the end of 2022, and Brent oil contracts will fall to $66 per barrel.

The reason? EIA says the supply and demand mismatch for crude will ease in 2022.

"We forecast that rising production from OPEC+ countries and the United States will lead to global liquid fuels inventories increasing and crude oil prices falling in 2022," wrote EIA researchers in their 2022 outlook. "

Bisides that，Bloomberg Analyst Julian Lee Mentioned in a report that，Oil Producers Can Expect More Turbulent Years Ahead:

"As the Covid-19 pandemic began to bite into demand, Saudi Arabia demanded that Russia share in a proposed supply reduction of a further 1.5 million barrels a day. The group has shown a great deal of flexibility in attempting to adjust their supply to evolving demand as the pandemic has ebbed and surged over the past two years — even if they haven’t always got it right.

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned that the world faces a 30 million-barrel a day supply shortfall by the end of the decade.The next five years may be no smoother for the oil producer. "

Question 2

What‘s the main reasons that may influence oil price ？

In the big picture, Oil prices are driven by supply and demand, either of which can be affected by myriad external factors ranging from weather to geopolitical posturing. Here are three things that we suggest investors( myself too) track on which could impact oil prices & oil stocks in 2022.

• Omicron Threats

The new omicron variant is rapidly spreading in the U.S. Large-scale lockdowns like those seen in March 2020. Of course, this involves Many countries, and they enacted some travel bans. The rise in infections hit airline travel, and therefore oil demand, hard during the holidays. This underscores the question mark hanging over oil price and demand outlooks.

Editor's Notes: Seems The outlook for 2022 remains just as uncertain as this year’s has been. The pandemic is still with us.

• Production and Comsumme Forcast

Both oil demand and production collapsed at the start of the pandemic in early 2020. Both are recovering, unevenly. Worldwide, the IEA report cut its 2022 oil demand growth outlook in December by 100,000 barrels per day due to reduced jet fuel demand.

Editor's Notes: In the immediate future, the producer group faces the return of oversupply and a growing need to cut output once again.

• A Recovery of Travel?

As pent-up consumer demand for travel may fuels a recovery in air travel? The Transportation Security Administration said it screened more than 2 million air travelers daily the weekend before Christmas, despite rising Covid-19 infection rates.The number was about double last year's levels for the same days, but still trails 2019 travel numbers.

Editor's Notes: At the same time, it faces pressure from consuming countries, worried by soaring inflation, to keep the taps open.

Question 3

Besides Oil futures, Oil stocks, what Oil ETFs can investor keep an eye on?

Oil futuresusually tend to be volatile and often require a significant initial investment, which excludes many investors.

By contrast, oil ETFs offer access to a basket of energy equities, diversifying risk. Below are 11 Oil ETF worthy looking at:

Source from investpedia

Inside which，The largest Oil ETF is the $(United States Oil Fund LP (USO))$ with $2.36B in assets. In the last trailing year, the best-performing Oil ETF was $(UCO)$ at 141.66%. The most recent ETF launched in the Oil space was the Credit Suisse X-Links Crude Oil Shares Covered Call ETN ($(USOI )$)on 04/25/17.

So far this year, $(USO)$ has risen by 65%, $(UCO)$ rose by 141.94%,$( IEO)$ rose by 73.41%, $(BNO)$ rose by 63.9%, $(USOI)$ rose by 11.3%, $(USL)$ rose by 63.06%, $(SCO)$ rose by 72.8%, and $(DBO)$ rose by 61.68 %, $(XLE)$ rose by 47.92%, $(XOP)$ rose by 68.26%.

So ,Do you bet bullish on Oil Market?

Do you have any postion on Oil Futures? Oil Stocks? Oil ETF?