To The Moon

Last night, COMEX copper prices experienced an extraordinary surge, with intraday gains exceeding 10% and a peak increase of 17%, setting a historic record. This dramatic movement caused a stir in the market, prompting widespread discussion about the reasons behind the spike in copper futures prices and the potential duration of this rally.Core Drivers Behind the Surge1. Sudden Stimulus from U.S. Tariff PolicyU.S. President Trump unexpectedly announced last night that he is considering imposing an additional 50% tariff on imported copper. This announcement far exceeded prior market expectations and triggered an intense market reaction.Market participants fear that, if implemented, the tariffs will create a structural shortage in U.S. copper supply. This concern led traders and downstream c

In the first half of 2025, the US stock market displayed dramatic swings, initially declining and then sharply rebounding to complete a 'Deep V' reversal. By the close on June 30, the S&P 500 Index had risen more than 28% from its intraday low on April 7, while the Nasdaq climbed over 37% from its low, both reaching record highs.Looking back at this year's performance, the market rallied early on, fueled by the AI boom and optimistic economic expectations. However, the so-called 'DeepSeek shock' and the impact of Trump’s tariff policies triggered a sharp sell-off, with the S&P 500 nearly touching bear market territory in early April. Subsequently, a softening in Trump’s tariff stance helped the market stabilize and sparked a robust rebound.Looking ahead, the US stock market still f

Since mid-June, the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, marked by the outbreak of the Israel-Iran conflict, briefly triggered market panic. However, after a short-lived “one-day” drop in risk assets, markets rebounded sharply, and both gold and oil prices surged before pulling back. We believe that the trajectory of major asset classes remains determined by trade policy. In the short term, a “seesaw” effect between risk assets and safe-haven assets has become apparent. U.S. stocks have rebounded, buoyed by three main factors: heightened expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, an easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, and increased stock buybacks by listed companies. Meanwhile, gold and oil have retreated from recent highs. In the medium term, the economic outlook is hig

Recently, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has intensified rapidly, with renewed conflict between Israel and Iran sparking concerns over potential disruptions to Middle Eastern crude oil supply. As a result, international oil prices have experienced sharp volatility and significant gains. For example, on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the price of the August WTI crude oil contract surged to as high as $75.50 per barrel, currently hovering around $73. A market that was previously characterized by oversupply has now witnessed a short-term boost due to fears of supply constraints.However, whether the oil market can sustain its rebound—and how high this recovery might reach—ultimately depends on the progression of the Israeli-Iranian conflict. If hostilities further esc

Recently, our futures trading section welcomed a new contract member: $1-Ounce Gold - main 2508(1OZmain)$ . Like $Gold - main 2508(GCmain)$ and $E-Micro Gold - main 2508(MGCmain)$, it is also a futures product under the CME Group. The 1OZ gold contract requires lower margin and is more flexible.If you want to find it, simply search for $1-Ounce Gold - main 2508(1OZmain)$ in the app and add to your watchlist.How is the 1OZ gold futures contract different from the ones we already know?1. Smaller contract size, lower margin requirement — making gold futures more accessibleThe Gold (GC) futures contract si

In June 2025, the COMEX silver futures market saw an unprecedented surge, with spot silver prices successfully breaking above $36 per ounce—a 13-year high. As of the close on June 10, the July contract settled at $36.64 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 22.54%.Technical Breakthrough and Historical SignificanceSilver prices have decisively breached the psychologically significant $35 per ounce resistance level, signaling a major technical breakthrough after years of consolidation. However, historical data indicate that silver is still trading far below its inflation-adjusted peak; the $50 record reached in 1980 would equate to roughly $180 today. From a technical standpoint, silver’s current move has effectively overcome a key resistance zone, setting the stage for further gains

1. Recent Review of Oil Price TrendsAt the beginning of April, the international crude oil market suffered a significant drop, with Brent crude and WTI crude both falling below key support levels of $68 and $64 respectively. This decline was primarily triggered by the dual pressures of a tariff shock initiated by the United States and an unexpectedly large production increase by OPEC+. Over the following month and a half, oil prices oscillated within a range of roughly $10, with WTI fluctuating between $55 and $65, while Brent traded between $58 and $68. In the absence of any major systematic risk events, prices are likely to continue fluctuating within this range; however, in the medium term, there remains a genuine risk of a further breakdown.图表信息：WTI原油日K线The daily candlestick chart for

Recently, global financial markets have faced a series of shocks. Phase-wise progress in China-US trade negotiations and the temporary suspension of tariffs have offered short-term relief. Simultaneously, international rating agency Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, fueling risk-off sentiment in the market. As the world’s most important currency benchmark, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has become a central focus amid these events. I. Macroeconomic Background: Easing in China-US Trade and Geopolitical Risk ReleaseIn mid-May 2025, high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US were held in Geneva, resulting in significant interim consensus. Both parties announced the removal of 91% of tariffs and the suspension of 24% of remaining tariffs. This move

In May, as progress was made in China-U.S. trade negotiations, international crude oil prices experienced a rebound. The rebound for NYMEX WTI crude and ICE Brent crude approached 5%, while INE’s RMB-denominated crude rose by nearly 4%. Since the beginning of the year, international crude oil prices have continued to decline, mainly due to a global pattern of “increasing supply and decreasing demand,” with persistent concerns about oversupply.The following chart shows the trend of NYMEX WTI crude oil futures prices.Looking ahead, the progress in China-U.S. trade talks, the substantial reduction of the high tariffs imposed on each other in April, a slight easing of global economic downside risks, and the upcoming peak driving season in the U.S. are expected to provide short-term momentum fo

The S&P 500's nine-day rally - its longest winning streak in nearly 20 years - came to an abrupt end on Monday, marking a stark reversal after the index had nearly recovered losses triggered by early April's "reciprocal tariffs" rhetoric. This rally had been fueled by the Trump administration's decision to suspend additional tariffs and positive signals from trade negotiations.Tariff Policy Uncertainty ResurfacesWhile the S&P 500 closed May 2 with a 1.5% gain to secure its ninth consecutive daily advance, markets remained under the cloud of tariff policy risks. Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson and his team emphasized that maintaining this upward trajectory would require concrete progress on trade agreements.The anticipated trade deal optimism evaporated abruptly on May 5 wh