To The Moon

$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ was rescued by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) on Friday, with a new bank set up to hold and guarantee deposits up to US$250,000 held at the bank.

On Sunday, crypto bank $Signature Bank(SBNY)$ was also closed down due to what was said by the regulator to be a risk of systemic bank failure.

All Signature's depositors will be "made whole",  "​​As with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank, no losses will be borne by the taxpayer,” said by the FDIC.

$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ is said to have deposits/assets of anywhere between US$120bn and US$200bn.  $Signature Bank(SBNY)$ was a major lender in the crypto space with total assets of about US$110bn and deposits of over US$88bn.

The second and third largest bank failures in U.S. history have occurred over the past week

US president Joe Biden is expected to unveil further measures to prop up the US banking system today due to fears about the safety of depositors’ money.

1. Hidden Risks Shows earlier from Banks Q4 Deposits &Net Interest Margin Trends

As of Q4 of 2022, leading to declining net interest margins and deposit runoff, the majority of the 11 U.S. banks with between $100 billion and $1 trillion in total assets that reported earnings saw both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year declines in total deposits.

$Signature Bank(SBNY)$ reported both the largest linked sequential and yearly drop at 13.8% and 16.5%, respectively. The drops were partly related to the company's conscious effort to decrease digital asset deposits and reduce the size of its relationships in that space.

Then $SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ saw 2.1% drop in QOQ, and 8.5% decline in YOY.  Next,are$KeyCorp(KEY)$ ,$Regions(RF)$ ,$PNC Financial Services Group Inc(PNC)$ ……

A few banks bucked the deposit runoff trend in the quarter, such as First Republic Bank$First Republic Bank(FRC)$ , which posted 2.4% quarter over quarter and 12.9% year over year deposit growth.

However, that deposit growth came at a cost.$First Republic Bank(FRC)$ 's net interest margin declined by 27 bps linked quarter and 23 bps year over year as the company opts to build customer relationships using higher-cost deposits. The company expectsnet interest margin to be approximately 25 to 30 bps lower than the fourth quarter.

$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ and $Signature Bank(SBNY)$ also reported quarter-over-quarter declines in their net interest margins.

Affected by the $SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ , people are queuing to withdraw cash from the $First Republic Bank(FRC)$ . The stock price fluctuated on Friday, and even fell more than 60% before the market on Monday. The bank said it has strengthened its financial position with additional funding from the Fed and JPMorgan Chase & Co..

2. Let's take a look at Banks Q422 Earnings Situation

8 of the 11 banks with between $100 billion and $1 trillion in assets that reported an EPS increase in the Q4 2022. 6 banks reported a linked-quarter increase in EPS and 5 reporting a decline.

Earnings per share trends

$First Republic Bank(FRC)$ ,$SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ and$KeyCorp(KEY)$ all reported both a QOQ and YOY decline in EPS

3. JP Morgan ranked the impact of Banks' unrealised securities losses on capital ratios

Seems $KeyCorp(KEY)$ , $Huntington Bancshares(HBAN)$ , $Truist Financial Corp(TFC)$ , $Fifth Third(FITB)$ ,$Citizens(CFG)$ , $U.S. Bancorp(USB)$  are on the top of Higher Risk Deposit Base.

Two other regional banks with kinda big drawdowns on Last friday: $Zions(ZION)$ and $Truist Financial Corp(TFC)$ .

Under this type of anxietly this week. Puts may more affordable? but maybe it's just irrational panic.

Data from Tiger Trade, As of March 10th

Some risks have already been revealed, Just a week before Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.US) exploded, CEO Greg Becker and CFO Daniel Beck secretly sold $4.15 million worth of $SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ stock on the same day.

According to the SEC transaction records, CEO Greg Becker and CFO Daniel Beck sold $3.58 million and $570,000 of $SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$stock at a price of $287 on February 27, for a total of $4.15 million.Not only that, but three days before the $SVB Financial Group(SIVB)$ explosion, someone actually bought a large number of SIVB put options (PUT) that expired on March 17 at a price of one cent on March 6, and the investment of $96 soared 6430 times!

This is crazy……

Which bank you think will Go Bust Next？