To The Moon

New York Fed probability of recessionHighest reading since the early 80s, no false signal.You can either monitor data and learn from history or you can believe the "soft landing" spin. Your choice.Source: https://www.newyorkfed.org/

Disclaimer: The content are from public information, strategies are for communication, not for trading advices directly.Editor Notes: $Credit Suisse Group AG(CS)$ 's credit default swap (CDS) spreads to more major European and American banks, We may be in the early stages of a banking crisis. If not handled properly, it is a financial crisis.  Citi Research: The Funding, Liquidity, Valueation, Risks of Credit SuisseAfter SIVB, SBNY, Who is Next, ZION, TFC, FRC, KEY or $RF?1. <

Can U.S. stocks hold the 200-day moving average? Can the bulls regain dominance? You choose to stay long or go short?$S&P 500(.SPX)$ trading at a critically important level here. Right below the 50 Day Moving Average(MA50 Redline) but right above the 200 Day Moving Average(MA200 whiteline).Recently, the performance of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has been relatively weak. It has recorded a decline for three consecutive weeks, and last week it fell by 2.7%, the worst weekly performance since 2023.Day chart of .SPXDay chart of .IXICDay chart of .DJIWill the 200 Day hold as support?Firstly, there are 3 Key facts affect 

$DJIA(.DJI)$ ,$S&P 500(.SPX)$ , $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ are all trading down by more than -2% and approaching their biggest 1-day losses of the year on Tuesday.As mentioned in $S&P 500(.SPX)$ appears to turn Down？on Feb 10th，”As long as 3950-3980 holds, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ can escape major fall in short term."Trend Review and Key Support of 3 IndexesBelow are the recent trend,&nb

The U.S. CPI data for January supported the hawkish argument of Fed officials that they need to continue raising interest rates and maintain a high interest rate policy for a period of time.U.S. inflation turned higher in early 2023 as higher housing, natural gas and fuel prices took a toll on consumers, the Labor Department reported.At one point earlier this week, the market was 100% pricing in at least one rate cut this year - betting on interest rates at the time showed the Fed would be at least 25 basis points off its mid-year peak by the end of the year.But that bet has quickly narrowed to about 13 basis points following the release of the CPI data on Tuesday, well short of the bare minimum of a rate cut.Main U.S.equity indexes off lows;

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ appears to turn Down？the high at 4195 is a probable peak. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed below its 10 DMA.Friday it's likely to hit hit its 20 DMA ~4050.If it holds above it the 16-17 TD cycle low and 80 cycle TD low may occur tomorrow.If it closes below the 20 DMA, the low will likely happen on Monday and target would be at least 4015.As long as 3950-3980 holds it can escape major fall in short term. Expecting it to loose temper after CPI next week.𝐓𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐫𝘈𝘭𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘰𝘤𝘬𝘴1. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ 2. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 3. $Tesla Mo

On tuesday trading,Fed Chair Powell says inflation is starting to ease, but interest rates still likely to rise.“We expect 2023 to be a year of significant declines in inflation, My guess is it will take certainly into not just this year but next year” to get to 2%.Seems the market downplayed the need for Federal Reserve to hike rate and even expected a rate cut by the end of this year in response to possible recession, turned a deaf ear to what J. Powell was delivering.For past times, we see that the market reacted to Powell's speech as a blow:Powell: Inflation is only temporaryWall Street: ReceivedPowell: Inflation is really only temporaryWall Street: Received received!Powell: Inflation doesn't look temporary, we have more rate hikes to comeWall Street: ..., got itPow

Mega cap tech earnings are complete. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$, $Apple(AAPL)$ ,$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ ,$Microsoft(MSFT)$ ,$Netflix(NFLX)$ ,$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ ,$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ What happened to forward expectations?The table above outlines Consensus estimate revisions for the next year in response to 4Q results (NTM = next twelve months).Macro Situations Rcently :*U.S Mkt Technicals: Bullish *Macro: Bearish*Earnings Fundamentals: Bearish*Real Economy for Middle Class: Bear

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ The price has reached the 300-day simple moving average at 4142, which is the key🔑 level to break through and will prove to be support going forward. Day chart shows SPX hitting the MA300If the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ quotes above the 300 SMA it signals upside potential, if it quotes below it, it signals downside risk.During Wednesday's trading, the 300 SMA resistance level was broken intraday today, but the $SPX dipped again and failed to close above.Today's price action in the stocks after the FMOC, J Powell speech got this market to new highs pay attention to the levels as support~Buy & Resistance~Sell.This level must be in support of calls

Joining the Vote: Your equities view/positioning is:Bullish (Fundamentals) Bullish (Technicals)Bearish (Fundamentals)Bearish (Technicals) Some Observations:$S&P 500(.SPX)$ almost hit 4,100 and closed the day with an upper wick which is a hint of a potential pullback early next week. If it pulls back, the target would be the 10 DMA (3,997 point area). Overall I expect the rally to continue into February 3-6 and get to at least the gap resistance at 4,203.Investors continue to embrace riskier stocks over defensive ones. $Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF(SPHB)$ hit 9 month highs.From the $US