To The Moon

Last week Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, vowed to raise rates by 50 basis points. I wonder if the ECB will be as firm on rates tomorrow, Thursday.

$SPDR EURO STOXX 50 ETF(FEZ)$

The credit crunch has spread to Europe. Credit Suisse's big Saudi shareholder refused to come to its rescue, sending shares down 25% in early trading, triggering a panic sell-off in European shares.

But there's not much reference to options trading. Because the early put doubled its money at the open and then closed 3/4 of the way. The rest of them are running away with their profits, with a different mindset.

Whether Ms Lagarde raises rates or not makes no difference. But if you open short positions today, you might want to be wary of the governor's comments.

The big orders in the previous layout were these two sets, the put spread and the one-legged put:

• buy $FEZ 20230421 42.0 PUT$ $FEZ 20230421 42.0 PUT$ ​
• sell $FEZ 20230421 38.0 PUT$ $FEZ 20230421 38.0 PUT$ 

and

• ​$FEZ 20230519 41.0 PUT$ $FEZ 20230519 41.0 PUT$ 

As mentioned above, the profit portion has been closed, you can see the daily k line. It should be noted that FEZ, an illiquid ETF, has wide bid-ask spreads and dark market makers. It is easy to lose money if the price is not right.

With the crisis spreading to Europe, it's surprising that it hasn't spread to the tech sector.

Now I want to introduce the dark horse stock.

Both NVDA and AMD may be affected by ChatGPT. Capital is strongly optimistic about the development of this emerging AI industry. So the share prices of both companies have held up. If it hadn't been for the banking crisis, AMD would have hit 100.

How far is the capital optimistic? Just to clarify one thing, yesterday's article needs further explanation of Microsoft's strategy:

This is no ordinary bearish strategy. Selling the call option can get 1.25 million premium, buying the put option to pay 820 million premium. The short doesn't cost anything. The trader sells a call option and takes a short position. Even if Microsoft's share price does not fall, the deal is not a loss at all.

• sell $MSFT 20230519 275.0 CALL$ $MSFT 20230519 275.0 CALL$ ​
• buy $MSFT 20230519 225.0 PUT$ $MSFT 20230519 225.0 PUT$ 

and, this is the big sell put order I want to introduce today:

• ​$MSFT 20230331 260.0 PUT$ 

A common large sell put order with an at-the-money strike and expiration at the end of the month. But the option premium is $17.42 million, and the margin, by rough calculations, is at least $6.7 billion.

Chatgpt's parent company, after all.

Is it self-evident what stocks to buy this year? 6.7 billion thighs big enough, huh?