To The Moon

It is said that ChatGPTH is still in the preliminary stage, and its concept is greater than reality, and enterprises with real layout can be counted with their fingers.

If ChatGPTH wants to make a real difference, it is estimated that there will be a real outbreak of "phenomenological" applications after many years, but some enterprises do not have to wait so long, because most of the layout of ChatGPTH enterprises in recent years need to buy AI computing chips from it. This enterprise is the company that will benefit ChatGPTH in the medium term. It is the world's "first share of chips" Nvidia $Nvidia. US!

I. Overall performance meets expectations

After the U.S. stock market on February 23, Nvidia released its fourth quarter and full-year financial report for fiscal year 2023. In fiscal year 2023, Nvidia's revenue was 27 billion US dollars, almost the same as the previous year; its net profit was $4.368 billion, down 55% year-on-year.

Looking at last year's Q4 alone, Nvidia's revenue was $6.05 billion, down 21% year-on-year; net profit was $1.4 billion, down 53% year-on-year.

As of writing, Nvidia's stock price has soared by 14%, while driving other semiconductor companies such as TSMC $TSMC. US $AMD.US, AMD, ETC. RISE TOGETHER

Why did the revenue and profit margin decline, but the stock price soared?

The reason is that although the proportion of revenue and profit have decreased significantly, due to the previous market expectations for the semiconductor industry and Nvidia, Q4 met the market expectations this time, and the guidance for the next quarter exceeded market expectations, and it is currently the most beneficial stock in the early stage of ChatGPTH, resulting in large stock prices. Rise!

II. Performance bottoms out and stabilizes

Before last year, Nvidia's revenue accounted for the highest proportion of graphics cards (graphics), accounting for 59%, and the rest was the data center computing power cards.

However, according to the most published financial report, its data center accounts for more than 50%, becoming Nvidia's largest source of revenue.

After the latest performance announcement, the ranking of revenue from high to low is as follows: data center, game graphics card, automotive business, data visualization, OEM business

Among them, the data center accounts for 63%, the proportion of game graphics cards has fallen to 27.55%, and the proportion of other salesmen is less than 5%. It is meaningless to analyze these, focusing on data visualization and game graphics cards, which is the top priority of the analysis of Nvidia! At present, when studying Nvidia, don't worry about whether the small proportion of businesses will increase or not as expected. In the next few years, these businesses will have little impact on Nvidia!

1. Game graphics card bottoms out to stabilize

In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2023, Nvidia's gaming business achieved revenue of $1,831 million, down 46.5% year-on-year.

I almost cut it year-on-year. Why do you still say that the graphics card has arrived flat? The reasons are as follows:

1 Market expectations for Nvidia are very low. Although Q4 fell by 46.5% year-on-year, it exceeded market expectations by 15.8%.

2 Although Q4 fell by 46.5% year-on-year, it increased by 16.3% month-on-month, which was the first quarter of month-on-month increase since Nvidia's game revenue fell month-on-month for two consecutive quarters. Moreover, in the guidance of game revenue in the next quarter, management predicted that the game would continue to rise month-on-month. "Double rise" is generally regarded as a sign of bottoming out and stabilization!

3 Where is the main use of the game graphics card? High-performance games on the PC, right?

Last year's Q4, global PC shipments fell by 27.5% year-on-year, which is already the bottom of demand.

However, with the gradual recovery of the global market in Q1 this year, especially in mainland China, as a normalized product in life, there is little room for PC sales to continue to decline. The management here also said, "The game graphics card inventory crisis is basically over."

As the second largest business, the bottom-up of the game will drive Nvidia's overall performance to bottom out and rebound.

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ 

$Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ 

$Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$ $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ 

@Daily_Discussion @TigerStars @Tiger_chat