On Thursday evening I hosted a livestream on whether this Fed meeting will burst the AI bubble, and how we should be positioned for it. There were a great many charts and I moved through them fairly quickly, so not everyone will have been able to follow in real time. What follows is a written walk-through of that session — the key judgements, the charts, and every operating condition I laid out on the night, kept as close to the original as possible. Let me put the conclusion up front. Holding rates steady in July was in line with expectations, but going into the meeting the probability of “no change” was only 65.8%, whereas heading into past meetings it has typically been above 80% — which tells us the market's ex