I want to share some my views on macro economy.
Fixed Income: $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2311(10Ymain)$
Gov't bond auctions demand is slowing, higher deficit indicates future bond offerings, thus increasing future supply and increasing present yield. Geopolitical events keeping bonds lower, for now. Victory over inflation not done, fed will hike if needed.
Equities: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$
Equities have weaker outlook. Risk-free rate brings many valuations down. Future earnings have peaked before, and will cause future stock prices to decline. Companies have maintained or lower growth expectations. Financing costs have been a concern. Dividend-yielding stocks set to go lower, pricing in 10 Yr Yield. Defensive stocks will retain some strength, as investors seek protection. Much industrial stocks have seen longer operating turn out ratios (meaning it takes longer to sell stuff, and receive payment). Which is a bad indicator. Growth stocks will see trouble ahead, as earnings are discounted from the risk-free rate. I would probably hold some cash on hand.
Commodities: Slowing economy has resulted in a cooldown of prices. OPEC+ will keep production growth under consumption growth, putting oil forward. Conflict cannot be factored into oil's price at this moment. Gold might trade sideways because of uncertainty, but sticky inflation can bring demand to gold, however I don't see inflation lasting too long, given how some indicators are showing that the economy is slowing. $WTI Crude Oil - main 2312(CLmain)$ $Gold - main 2312(GCmain)$
misc spx girl stock market memes : r/spx6900
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