On January 15, 2024, the US presidential election kicked off, and Donald Trump took the lead in winning the Iowa primary.
Who's running to be the next US president? What important points that US equity investors should consider in election years?
1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ performances under Democrats vs Republicans
From 2021 to 2024, during the Bidenโs Democratic administration, as of January 15, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ had a 3-year growth of 26.7%.
Chatgpt helped me calculate that the average annual growth rate is approximately 8.7%.
This is lower than the average annual growth rate of 11.3% under Obama and the Democratic administration (2009-2017).
It is also lower than Trumpโs 13.6% during the Republican administration (2017-2021).
Conventional wisdom holds that liberal Democrats are generally bad for the economy and the stock market because of their leanings toward big government, while conservative Republicans are good for them.
This widely held view is actually false if you look at data dating back to the end of World War II.
"The stock market does perform better under Democrats than under Republicans," said Jeremy Siegel, Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. "That's a well-known fact, but it's not It means cause and effect."
From 1952 to June 2020, real stock market returns under Democrats were 10.6% annualized, compared with 4.8% for Republicans.
2. Who's running to be the next US president?
Who's running to be the next US president? The 2024 election candidates so far - including Oprah's 'spiritual adviser' | US News | Sky News
Infographic: Who Is Running For President in 2024? | Statista
3. 4 important points that US equity investors should consider in election years
Political Uncertainty: Election years bring heightened political uncertainty, especially during the campaign. Market volatility can rise due to uncertainty about candidates' policy preferences and their potential impact on the economy.
Policy Changes: General election results may bring about policy changes, including tax and regulatory policies. Investors often adjust their portfolios based on the expected impact of these changes on various industries.
Market Expectations: Election year markets are influenced by voter and investor expectations. Market behavior may differ in anticipation of victory for different candidates, leading to increased market volatility.
Economic Fundamentals: The stock market's performance in an election year is also influenced by economic fundamentals. Factors such as the overall economic health, employment data, corporate earnings, and more play a role in shaping market dynamics.
4. Reply to Win Tiger Coins
Do you have any forward-looking statements?
Who will be elected as the U.S. President in 2025? Are you anticipating a victory for a particular political party?
Which industries are more favorable for investment before the election?
Comments
Will Donald Trump be back? He was a scary president and caused many trade wars and roller coaster to the market! No way, please stay at home Trump.
Well, we see that 2024 primary season begins with Donald Trump well ahead of his Republican opponents on key measures of popularity, while Joe Biden's job approval rating has dropped to a low for any president in the past 15 years.
With the Iowa caucuses Monday, the national survey finds Trump especially well rated by Republicans and Republican-leaning independents on three metrics: having the best chance to win in November, being a strong leader and being the party's most qualified candidate.
Hopefully, Democrats will continue to win in the next election 2025. We need a bullish market gogogogo! $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
How do you think? Who you prefer to win the election? [Observation] [Observation] [Observation] [Observation] [Observation]
@TigerStars @CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger @TigerClub @TigerPicks @TigerSG @Tiger_comments @TigerObserver
come comment and win coins [smile] [smile] [smile]
Do you have any forward-looking statements?
Who will be elected as the U.S. President in 2025? Are you anticipating a victory for a particular political party?
Which industries are more favorable for investment before the election?
๐๐๐2024 is a watershed year for the US with 2 key names the front runners for the hot seat of the President of the United States (POTUS). It looks like it will be Donald Trump versus Joe Biden.
Donald Trump has scored a convincing win in the latest Iowa election with 20 of the 40 seats, leaving his 2 rivals Ron De Santis and Nikki Haley in the dust.
Traditionally Presidential election years have always been good for the markets. In election years, the returns have been an encouraging 9.9%.
Investors are also banking on multiple interest rate cuts in 2024 with cooling inflation amid sturdy economic growth.
I believe growth stocks with the AI theme are going to do well in 2024. My Tactical bets will be $Microsoft(MSFT)$
$Alphabet(GOOG)$
These are stocks very much into AI and with the continuous development and new technologies, they will continue to experience compound growth in 2024.
No matter who wins the election, whether it is Donald Trump or Joe Biden, there will be big initiatives in government spending to boost projects, infrastructure and stimulate growth in the economy.
Donald Trump's slogan "Make America Great Again" or MAGA will be his battle cry in his fight to win back the White House.
Joe Biden's slogan is "Let's finish the job".
Both presidential contenders will emphasize on how they will revitalise the US economy and how they will make a difference in the American lives from jobs to health and foreign policies.
It is going to be a closely contested Presidential Election and an exciting one to watch. May the best man win!
@Tiger_story @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @MillionaireTiger @TigerClub @TigerPicks @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger
having a stable government is important as it means the survival of a country and the ability to build a good relationship with other countries is equally important as well...
I think if trump was to come into "power" once more, it's going to be quite a scene...