On January 15, 2024, the US presidential election kicked off, and Donald Trump took the lead in winning the Iowa primary.
Who's running to be the next US president? What important points that US equity investors should consider in election years?
1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ performances under Democrats vs Republicans
From 2021 to 2024, during the Biden’s Democratic administration, as of January 15, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ had a 3-year growth of 26.7%.
Chatgpt helped me calculate that the average annual growth rate is approximately 8.7%.
This is lower than the average annual growth rate of 11.3% under Obama and the Democratic administration (2009-2017).
It is also lower than Trump’s 13.6% during the Republican administration (2017-2021).
Conventional wisdom holds that liberal Democrats are generally bad for the economy and the stock market because of their leanings toward big government, while conservative Republicans are good for them.
This widely held view is actually false if you look at data dating back to the end of World War II.
"The stock market does perform better under Democrats than under Republicans," said Jeremy Siegel, Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. "That's a well-known fact, but it's not It means cause and effect."
From 1952 to June 2020, real stock market returns under Democrats were 10.6% annualized, compared with 4.8% for Republicans.
2. Who's running to be the next US president?
Who's running to be the next US president? The 2024 election candidates so far - including Oprah's 'spiritual adviser' | US News | Sky News
Infographic: Who Is Running For President in 2024? | Statista
3. 4 important points that US equity investors should consider in election years
Political Uncertainty: Election years bring heightened political uncertainty, especially during the campaign. Market volatility can rise due to uncertainty about candidates' policy preferences and their potential impact on the economy.
Policy Changes: General election results may bring about policy changes, including tax and regulatory policies. Investors often adjust their portfolios based on the expected impact of these changes on various industries.
Market Expectations: Election year markets are influenced by voter and investor expectations. Market behavior may differ in anticipation of victory for different candidates, leading to increased market volatility.
Economic Fundamentals: The stock market's performance in an election year is also influenced by economic fundamentals. Factors such as the overall economic health, employment data, corporate earnings, and more play a role in shaping market dynamics.
4. Reply to Win Tiger Coins
Do you have any forward-looking statements?
Who will be elected as the U.S. President in 2025? Are you anticipating a victory for a particular political party?
Which industries are more favorable for investment before the election?
Comments
Will Donald Trump be back? He was a scary president and caused many trade wars and roller coaster to the market! No way, please stay at home Trump.
Well, we see that 2024 primary season begins with Donald Trump well ahead of his Republican opponents on key measures of popularity, while Joe Biden's job approval rating has dropped to a low for any president in the past 15 years.
With the Iowa caucuses Monday, the national survey finds Trump especially well rated by Republicans and Republican-leaning independents on three metrics: having the best chance to win in November, being a strong leader and being the party's most qualified candidate.
Hopefully, Democrats will continue to win in the next election 2025. We need a bullish market gogogogo! $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
How do you think? Who you prefer to win the election? [Observation] [Observation] [Observation] [Observation] [Observation]
@TigerStars @CaptainTiger @MillionaireTiger @TigerClub @TigerPicks @TigerSG @Tiger_comments @TigerObserver
come comment and win coins [smile] [smile] [smile]
Do you have any forward-looking statements?
Who will be elected as the U.S. President in 2025? Are you anticipating a victory for a particular political party?
Which industries are more favorable for investment before the election?
🌟🌟🌟2024年是美国的分水岭，两个关键名字是美国总统（POTUS）热门席位的领跑者。看起来这将是唐纳德·特朗普对乔·拜登。
唐纳德·特朗普在最近的爱荷华州选举中取得了令人信服的胜利，赢得了40个席位中的20个，将他的两个竞争对手罗恩·德·森蒂斯峰和妮基·黑利远远甩在身后。
传统上，总统选举年对市场总是有利的。在选举年，回报率达到了令人鼓舞的9.9%。
投资者还指望在经济强劲增长的情况下，随着通胀降温，2024年将多次降息。
我相信人工智能主题的成长型股票在2024年会有很好的表现。我的战术赌注是$微软(MSFT)$
$谷歌(GOOG)$
这些股票非常喜欢人工智能，随着不断发展和新技术的出现，它们将在2024年继续经历复合增长。
无论谁赢得选举，无论是唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）还是乔·拜登（Joe Biden），政府支出都会有重大举措，以促进项目、基础设施和刺激经济增长。
唐纳德·特朗普的口号“让美国再次伟大”或MAGA将成为他赢回白宫的战斗口号。
乔·拜登的口号是“让我们完成任务”。
两位总统候选人都将强调他们将如何振兴美国的经济，以及他们将如何改变美国人的生活，从就业到健康和外交政策。
这将是一场竞争激烈的总统选举，也是一场激动人心的选举。愿最优秀的人获胜！
@Tiger_story @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @MillionaireTiger @TigerClub @TigerPicks @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger
having a stable government is important as it means the survival of a country and the ability to build a good relationship with other countries is equally important as well...
I think if trump was to come into "power" once more, it's going to be quite a scene...