Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you!
1.
News:The CPI data gave bond bulls and the Fed a long-awaited downside surprise. Both the headline and core CPIs came in 0.1% below expectations, an error that looks reasonable given the gap between the actual index and the forecast.
In fact, the core index rose by 0.16 per cent, rounded to almost a mere 0.1 per cent. The super-core services excluding housing fell by 0.04 per cent, the first time since September 2021 that growth has been negative.
This naturally makes two rate cuts in 2024 the obvious centre of the likely policy distribution and opens the door for the market to price in more rate cuts in 2025.
Next, watch for the impact of Thursday's Fed rate resolution. $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $Micro 10-Year Yield - main 2406(10Ymain)$
2.
$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ $Gold - main 2408(GCmain)$ Inflation cools down, the Fed is hawkish, and gold still has the risk of falling back in the short term!
Last trading day Wednesday (June 12): International gold/London gold rose after a high and fell back, still running below the 30-day and middle track lines, suggesting that there is still a risk of falling back again, but the factors of both long and short sides are intertwined, and it is difficult to win in the short term, so it is treated as a weak shock first.
In terms of specific trends, the price of gold opened at $2316.89 per ounce in the Asian market, and maintained a consolidation range of $8 in the Asia-Europe market as a whole. It first recorded a daily low of $2310.56, which continued until the opening of the U.S. market. The bulls broke the pattern and pulled up in one fell swoop, recording a daily high of $2341.57. After that, it encountered resistance and retreated nearly $20. Although it rebounded again and touched the $2340 mark, the trend continued to encounter resistance and fall back, and the strength increased, returning to the white market shock range, and finally stopped falling and stabilized and rebounded to close at $2324.73, with a daily amplitude of $31.01, closing up $7.84, or 0.34%. In terms of impact, the market waited for the US inflation data CPI and interest rate decision and Powell's speech, and waited and watched to maintain consolidation. When the US market opened in the evening, the CPI data collectively fell beyond expectations, which strengthened the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut before September increased to 70%, and the possibility of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in November reached 100%. Helped gold prices to climb rapidly and record intraday highs;
Although the resistance suppression and inflation reduction itself were negative for commodities, causing gold prices to fall by $20, and then quickly rebounded to return to the vicinity of the daily high, but due to the Fed's unmoved as expected, the dot plot sent out hawkish signals, and Powell's remarks that inflation was still too high, it fell again and closed with an inverted positive line.
The focus of the day will be on the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending June 8 (10,000 people) and another inflation indicator, the annual and monthly PPI rates in the United States in May. The number of initial claims is expected to decrease, which is bearish for gold prices. PPI expectations are mixed, but based on yesterday's CPI data, there are also overall positive factors for gold prices. Therefore, today's gold price tends to fall first and then rise.
3.
Gold technical aspects: The daily line ended the three-consecutive positive rising pattern, with the help of CPI data, it rose and fell from positive to negative, and finally closed with a hammer negative line accompanied by shock washing. The short-term long-short watershed is at 2287. The 4H cycle gradually broke the moving average support.
The overnight rebound did not go out of continuity. The 1H cycle is currently under pressure and fluctuated downward. After the small five-wave upward rebound, this round of rebound ended, and it fell below the previous support belt and continued to weaken.
Therefore, keep selling orders today, and pay attention to the pressure of 2325-2330 area, support: 2303, 2287!
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