🎁Can the market revisit July's peak? Insights from Goldman Sachs & CBOE

Capital_Insights
08-14
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The three major indexes $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ have rebounded continuously from their lows last Monday. Can we still see stock indexes rise more than in July in the short term?

1. Goldman Sachs Advises: Buy U.S. Stocks on Dip in Late August

Scott Rubner of Goldman Sachs Global Markets suggests that investors should capitalize on the opportunity to buy U.S. stocks on dips at the end of August. He anticipates ongoing selling pressure for the next week but has seen signs indicating the market's technical low is over. Rubner plans to shift to tactically bullish stocks on August 30, following his recommendation in June to reduce U.S. stock exposure after July 4.

Goldman Sachs notes that 90% of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ companies are in an open buyback window, which is set to close on September 6, allowing for up to $4.75 billion daily in potential buybacks.

However, Rubner cautions that the market outlook may worsen in September, with the second half typically the worst for stocks. According to him, a clear upward trend is not expected until Q4 and after the November U.S. election.

2. CBOE Outlook: U.S. Stocks Face Continued Volatility

CBOE suggests that U.S. stocks are likely to see ongoing volatility in the next few months, following last week's market fluctuations. Although the initial panic has calmed, historical trends show that markets often remain unsettled for an extended period after a sharp decline, as indicated by the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ index's surge.

Mandy Xu from CBOE Global Markets has observed that the swift market movements reflect risk liquidation from position adjustments. Meanwhile, JJ Kinahan of IG North America and Tastytrade warns that it typically takes six to nine months for the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ to stabilize, during which time the market can still deliver surprises.

The stock market's climb to record highs in early July was disrupted by disappointing tech company earnings, causing a sell-off and a rise in the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ from its low base. The situation worsened in late July and early August with the Bank of Japan's unexpected interest rate hike, which impacted carry trade investors.

Given the insights from Goldman Sachs and CBOE regarding the current state of U.S. stock indexes, here are some questions for Tigers:

  1. How might the open buyback window for 90% of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ companies influence short-term stock prices?

  2. With CBOE's outlook pointing to continued volatility, what factors may be inclueded?

  3. Rubner suggests that a clear upward trend may not be seen until Q4 and after the November U.S. election. Will this affect your long-term portfolio strategy?

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Take Profit as S&P Hits 5800 or Hold Till 6000?
As the stock market hits record highs more than 40 times this year, there are concerns that history might repeat itself and another financial crisis could occur. ---------------- Will S&P 500 hit 6000 by year-end as institutions predict? Would you take profit and stay cautious ahead or hold till the year-end?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Comments

  • icycrystal
    08-15
    icycrystal
    better to take profit... [Sly] [Sly] [Sly] then if market decides to swing the other way... buy low and then sell high and the repeat... it's a cycle isn't it... [lovely] [lovely] [lovely]

    @Universe宇宙 @LMSunshine @koolgal @Shyon @Aqa @GoodLife99 @rL @SPACE ROCKET @HelenJanet @TigerGPT

    How might the open buyback window for 90% of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ companies influence short-term stock prices?


    With CBOE's outlook pointing to continued volatility, what factors may be inclueded?


    Rubner suggests that a clear upward trend may not be seen until Q4 and after the November U.S. election. Will this affect your long-term portfolio strategy?


    Join to share your understanding and win Tiger Coins

    • Shyon: 
      Nice say, see profit takes profit, never wrong
    • TigerGPT: 

      As an AI financial analyst, I can provide some insights on taking profits and market volatility.

      Taking profits is a common strategy in investing, where investors sell their holdings when the price has increased to lock in gains. This strategy aims to capitalize on short-term price movements and avoid potential market downturns. However, it's important to note that timing the market perfectly is extremely difficult, and it's impossible to predict short-term price movements with certainty.

      Market volatility refers to the rapid and significant price fluctuations in the market. It can be influenced by various factors such as economic indicators, geopolitical events, investor sentiment, and market speculation. Volatility can create both opportunities and risks for investors. While it can provide opportunities for short-term traders to profit from price swings, it can also increase the risk of losses.

      Factors that may contribute to market volatility include:

      Economic Data: Economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, employment data, and central bank policies can impact market sentiment and volatility.

        

      Geopolitical Events: Political instability, trade tensions, and geopolitical conflicts can create uncertainty in the market and lead to increased volatility.

        

      Investor Sentiment: Market participants' emotions and perceptions can drive buying or selling pressure, causing volatility.

        

      Corporate Earnings: Earnings reports and guidance from companies can significantly impact stock prices and market volatility.

        

      Interest Rates: Changes in interest rates set by central banks can affect borrowing costs, investment decisions, and market volatility.

        

      Regarding CBOE's outlook pointing to continued volatility and Rubner's suggestion of a clear upward trend not being seen until Q4 and after the November U.S. election, it's important to consider these factors in the context of your long-term portfolio strategy. Short-term market movements and predictions should not be the sole basis for making long-term investment decisions.

      A sound long-term portfolio strategy should focus on diversification, risk management, and aligning investments with your financial goals and risk tolerance. It's crucial to have a well-balanced portfolio that includes a mix of asset classes and sectors to mitigate risks and capture potential returns over the long term.

      Remember, investing in the stock market involves risks, and it's always recommended to consult with a financial advisor or do thorough research before making any investment decisions.

      Please note that the above information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Investing in the stock market involves risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

  • highhand
    08-14
    highhand
    My understanding is that the market has already bottomed and gone half way up. you should have bought last week or the week before. now it's too late to get the good price.
    The market will not go up straight too. it should hit some resistance, and be choppy.
    By year end, it should be all time highs!
  • Shyon
    08-21
    Shyon

    The open buyback window for 90% of S&P 500 companies can influence short-term stock prices by increasing demand for shares. Companies repurchasing their stock can reduce supply, potentially driving prices higher. However, short-term volatility, as indicated by the CBOE, means other factors will also play a role.

    Key elements affecting short-term stock prices include market sentiment, economic indicators (such as inflation and unemployment data), interest rates, and overall market liquidity. These factors can either amplify or dampen the effects of buybacks on stock prices.

    Rubner's expectation that a clear upward trend might not emerge until Q4 or after the November U.S. election suggests a cautious approach. In this context, consider maintaining a diversified portfolio to manage risk and focusing on resilient sectors. Staying informed about political and economic developments will help guide your long-term investment strategy. Adjustments may be necessary based on market conditions, but a well-considered approach can help navigate periods of uncertainty.

    @Capital_Insights  @TigerStars  @Tiger_comments  @TigerGPT  @TigerWire  

    • Shyon: 
      Come and join guys
    • TigerGPT: 

      Thank you for the information. It is important to understand that the open buyback window for S&P 500 companies can indeed influence short-term stock prices by increasing demand for shares. When companies repurchase their own stock, it reduces the supply available in the market, potentially driving prices higher.

      However, it is essential to consider other factors that can affect short-term stock prices. These factors include market sentiment, economic indicators such as inflation and unemployment data, interest rates, and overall market liquidity. These elements can either amplify or dampen the effects of buybacks on stock prices.

      Based on Rubner's expectation that a clear upward trend may not emerge until the fourth quarter or after the November U.S. election, it suggests a cautious approach to investing. In this context, maintaining a diversified portfolio can help manage risk. It is also advisable to focus on resilient sectors that are less sensitive to market volatility.

      Staying informed about political and economic developments will be crucial in guiding your long-term investment strategy. Market conditions may require adjustments from time to time, but a well-considered approach can help navigate periods of uncertainty.

      Please note that the information provided is for reference purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. It is always recommended to conduct thorough research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

    • TigerGPT: 

      The open buyback window for 90% of S&P 500 companies can indeed influence short-term stock prices. When companies repurchase their own stock, it reduces the supply of shares in the market, potentially creating increased demand. This increased demand can drive stock prices higher in the short term. However, there are other factors at play that can also affect short-term stock prices, as indicated by the CBOE's outlook on continued volatility.

      Market sentiment, economic indicators (such as inflation and unemployment data), interest rates, and overall market liquidity are key elements that can amplify or dampen the effects of buybacks on stock prices. These factors should be taken into consideration when assessing the potential impact of buybacks on stock prices in the short term.

      Rubner's suggestion that a clear upward trend may not emerge until Q4 or after the November U.S. election indicates a cautious approach may be warranted. It is important to maintain a diversified portfolio to manage risk and consider focusing on resilient sectors. Staying informed about political and economic developments can help guide your long-term investment strategy.

      Adjustments to your portfolio strategy may be necessary based on market conditions, but it is important to take a well-considered approach and navigate periods of uncertainty carefully.

      Remember, investing involves risks, and the information provided is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. It is always recommended to conduct thorough research and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

  • WanEH
    08-14
    WanEH
    感觉现在利好已经出尽。除非公司能交出非常漂亮的成绩。不然业绩公布后肯定是套利潮。现在还是观望吧。
  • 中蓝的中榕
    08-14
    中蓝的中榕
    these articles are meaningless,  if anyone relies on them to make financial decisions, you are always mid way behind , similarly they also report when the market almost bottom out to sell
  • SPACE ROCKET
    08-15
    SPACE ROCKET
    Market has already bottomed on black Monday and I doubt we will see such prices again anytime soon.
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