FOMC Rate Cut Tonight! Can S&P Hit 6000 This Friday?

Tiger_comments
11-07
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After US election results, investors are now turning their attention to today’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

Powell will avoid answering election-related questions, striving to remain politically neutral. Typically, the Fed announces its rate decision in the early hours of Thursday, but this time it has been postponed to Friday to distance it from political events.

The market widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut, but the key lies in the Fed’s policy guidance.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 97% probability of a 25 bps cut in November.

1. Will "Trump trade" lead to reflation?

Trump's victory signals faster economic growth and higher inflation.

Trump’s proposed tax cuts and deficit spending could lead to reflation. He has also considered replacing the Fed leadership and claims he has the right to comment on interest rates.

Long-term US Treasury yields have risen by nearly 20 basis points, the US stock market has hit record highs, and the dollar has strengthened.

2. What’s next for rate cuts?

Any signs of renewed inflation acceleration would mean the Fed might either slow down rate cuts or halt them altogether, and rates may not fall as low as previously forecast.

Analysts now expect fewer rate cuts:

  • JPMorgan: Expects 25 bps rate cuts this week and next month, but fewer rate cuts in total than previously anticipated before the election.

  • Bank of America: If the new president imposes significant tariffs, the Fed may pause rate cuts.

  • Nomura: Forecasts a 75 bps inflation rise by 2025, expecting only one rate cut next year, versus four previously predicted before the election.

What’s your view on Fed rate cuts?

If there’s no rate cut in December, will Treasury prices continue to fall?

Could the Fed’s decision push the S&P 500 to 6000 points this week?

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S&P Target 6500? Is It Safe to Invest at High Levels?
With $.SPX(.SPX)$ recently surpassing the 6,000 point, major institutions have expressed optimism about the U.S. stock market's outlook for next year: Morgan Stanley: Set a base-case year-end 2025 target for the S&P 500 at 6,350 points, with a bullish scenario target of 7,400 points. ---------- Will you still invest in US stocks despite of high valuations and low risk premium? Can $.SPX(.SPX)$ hit 6500 as analysts suggest?
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Comments

  • MHh
    11-07
    MHh
    Win 20 Tiger-coins
    Expecting rate cuts for this month and next. Thereafter, it would depends on how inflation goes and how much trump interferes with the rate cuts. Not expecting s&p 500 to hit 6000points as market has already price in the 25basis points cut and I’m not expecting the Fed to cut more than that. If there is no rate cut in December, I do expect prices of multiple classes like stocks and treasury to fall
  • BenjiFuji
    11-07
    BenjiFuji
    Win 15 Tiger-coins
    I would think that a Trumpian world will increase inflation. So JP would probably wait and see before cutting too harshly. As the S&P climbs to new heights, the new question to consider will be when to sell. What do you think? [Great]
  • Universe宇宙
    11-07
    Universe宇宙
    Win 5 Tiger-coins
    @TigerGPT regardless whether got rate cut or not, it is better to quickly take profit before the profit disappear, right buddy?
    • TigerGPTReplyUniverse宇宙: 

      You're welcome! It's always a good idea to consider the potential impact of inflation on your investments. If you have any more questions or need further assistance, feel free to ask. Happy investing!

    • Universe宇宙ReplyTigerGPT: 
      ok, will take profit as inflation is coming. thanks buddy.
    • TigerGPT: 

      Based on the news articles I found, here are the key points regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and its potential impact on the S&P 500:

      The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut at the end of its policy meeting on Thursday. This is in response to the uncertain economic terrain and possible policy changes following Donald Trump's re-election.

        

      The economic outlook has become murkier due to Trump's victory and the potential impact of policies such as tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration changes. These factors could reshape the outlook for economic growth and inflation next year.

        

      Analysts have adjusted their expectations for future rate cuts. JPMorgan expects 25 basis point rate cuts this week and next month, but fewer rate cuts overall compared to pre-election predictions. Bank of America suggests that significant tariffs imposed by the new president may lead to a pause in rate cuts. Nomura forecasts a smaller number of rate cuts next year based on a projected rise in inflation.

        

      There is speculation about whether the Fed's decision, along with the altered outlook for rate cuts, could push the S&P 500 to 6000 points this week. However, it is important to note that stock market performance is influenced by various factors, and predicting specific levels is challenging.

        

      Please keep in mind that these are news articles and opinions regarding the Federal Reserve's rate decision and its potential impact on the stock market. Investment decisions should be based on thorough analysis and consideration of individual circumstances. It is always advisable to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

      Apologies, but I couldn't find any news specific to the company you mentioned. For more information about the company's stock performance, you can visit the stock quote page or reach out to customer service for assistance.

      Disclaimer: The information provided here is for reference and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Investment in stocks involves risks, and it is important to conduct thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions.

  • highhand
    11-07
    highhand
    Win 20 Tiger-coins
    yes yes and yes. it's All time high and ATH over and over again... Once Fed cut rate, everyone will forget that Trump is a threat for inflation. So happy now everyone... until the next correction [LOL]
  • Cadi Poon
    11-07
    Cadi Poon
    Win 5 Tiger-coins
    在美國大選結果之後，投資者現在將注意力轉向今天的美聯儲利率決議。

    鮑威爾將避免回答與選舉相關的問題，努力保持政治中立。通常情況下，美聯儲會在週四凌晨宣佈利率決定，但這次是推遲到週五，以遠離政治事件。

    市場普遍預期一個降息25個基點，但關鍵在於美聯儲的政策引導。

    根據CME FedWatch工具，11月份降息25個基點的可能性爲97%。

  • TimothyX
    11-07
    TimothyX
    Win 5 Tiger-coins
    特朗普的勝利標誌着更快的經濟增長和更高的通脹。

    特朗普提出的減稅和赤字支出可能會導致通貨再膨脹。他還考慮更換美聯儲領導層，並聲稱自己有權對利率發表評論。

    美國長期國債收益率上漲近20個基點,美國股市屢創新高，美元走強。

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