As I look at the recent update from JPMorgan cutting Pop Mart's $POP MART(09992)$   target price from HK$400 to HK$300, I tend to agree with this adjustment. The share price has rallied significantly this year, driven by strong first-half results, the Uniqlo collaboration, index inclusion, and the opening of gold jewelry stores. It feels like the stock has already priced in these catalysts, and now might be a good time for it to take a breather and cool down the frenzy that's been building up.

I believe maintaining investor excitement without near-term major catalysts could be challenging for Pop Mart. The momentum that carried the stock this far might wane if there's no clear, immediate driver to keep the enthusiasm alive. With the timing and intensity of upcoming catalysts remaining uncertain, as noted in the report, I think the market might start to shift its focus elsewhere unless something significant emerges soon.

Regarding Labubu & Friends and the interactive toys, I'm skeptical about their ability to meaningfully expand Pop Mart's IP value at this point. While these products have been popular, I've noticed that the market demand for Labubu seems to be dropping. This could limit their impact on the company's intellectual property valuation, especially if the hype around these characters doesn't sustain itself in the coming months.

When it comes to deciding on a buy price, I'd be cautious given the current trajectory. The sharp cut in the target price suggests that the stock might still have room to decline as the market adjusts its expectations. I'd consider waiting for a more attractive entry point, possibly closer to or below 200 HKD, to account for the cooling demand and lack of immediate catalysts.

Overall, I think the stock needs time to stabilize after such a strong run. The excitement that fueled its rise earlier this year might not hold without fresh developments, and the drop in Labubu's appeal could further dampen sentiment. This makes me inclined to sit on the sidelines for now rather than jumping in during this dip.

That said, if the price does fall to a level that feels undervalued—perhaps around HK$200 or lower—I might start to see it as a potential buy. This would give me a margin of safety while allowing for some uncertainty around future catalysts. Until then, I'd rather watch and see how the market reacts over the next few weeks.

In summary, I agree with the cautious outlook from JPMorgan. The rally has been impressive, but it's time for a rest, and I'm not convinced the current lineup of products or catalysts will keep the momentum going strong. I'll be keeping an eye on the price and market sentiment before making any moves.

@Tiger_comments  @TigerStars