Reward 500 Tiger-coinsHistory shows that Thanksgiving week doesn’t usually rise for four consecutive years… but will this year be different?
After last week’s steep sell-off, U.S. equities staged a rapid sentiment reversal within just a few days. For two consecutive trading sessions, Federal Reserve officials boosted expectations for a December rate cut, sending the probability surging to 80%. Tech stocks rebounded sharply, with $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ posting its best single-day gain since May. Crypto also rallied to 87,793.
With the Thanksgiving holiday arriving this week, how does the market typically perform during Thanksgiving week?
Thanksgiving-week S&P 500 performance over the past 20 years: It ended positive in 13 of those years.
The Statistical Pattern: 2025 leans toward “unlikely to complete four straight Thanksgiving-week gains”
Looking back at the past 20 years, the S&P 500 rose in 13 Thanksgiving weeks—overall a seasonally warm period. But there is a rarely discussed yet highly important pattern:
The S&P 500 has never risen for four consecutive Thanksgiving weeks.
And since 2022, 2023, and 2024 have already logged gains, the statistical tendency for 2025 leans toward a pullback.
However, VIX sends a reversal signal
Historically, when the previous week’s $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ closes in the 20s, the setup actually leans bullish for Thanksgiving week.
Last week VIX closed at 23. This week it quickly fell below the critical 20 level, hitting a low of 18.56. Seen this way, falling volatility suggests that a strong rebound after last week’s sell-off is certainly possible.
2025’s Déjà Vu: Echoes of 2018
The 2025 market environment is strikingly similar to 2018:
– The same Trump–Powell tensions.
– The same mixed signals from the Fed—neither fully dovish nor fully hawkish.
– The same year-end macro uncertainty.
In 2018, Thanksgiving week saw a roughly –2% decline under similar conditions, followed by a deep downturn in December.
How do you view this week's market? Will the rally continue, or will we see a Friday pullback?
With expectations of a December Fed rate cut and quantitative tightening potentially ending in December—Is last week’s sell-off already behind us?
Is now a good time to get in?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins, stock and options vouchers!
Comments
also, a time to balance portfolio.
well, never know how nthe market will swing as sometime it may surprise you [Serious] [Serious] [Serious]
That said, the VIX $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ drop from 23 to below 20 gives a clear bullish signal. Falling volatility has historically supported Thanksgiving-week strength, and with expectations of a December rate cut rising to 80%, sentiment is improving quickly. If the Fed tone stays dovish, the rally could still push higher before any cooling.
As for now, chasing the rebound feels risky given the seasonal pattern, but staying fully on the sidelines may miss further upside. I’d prefer scaling in on dips rather than buying at the current bounce, since I still expect some volatility into month-end.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
How do you view this week's market? Will the rally continue, or will we see a Friday pullback?
With expectations of a December Fed rate cut and quantitative tightening potentially ending in December—Is last week’s sell-off already behind us?
Is now a good time to get in?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins, stock and options vouchers!
Check them in the history - “community distribution“
1）本周大概率维持偏强震荡，但周五因假期前资金获利了结，回调也正常；
2）上周的抛售我认为是“情绪性过度反应”，不是趋势反转；
3）是否入场要看节奏，短线追高容易被震，但逢回调分批布局，我觉得仍然是合理的策略。