I have many stocks in my watchlist. Too many. So many, in fact, that watching them feels like trying to follow a hundred toddlers on a sugar high—prices ticking up and down every second, each one screaming, “Look at me! No, look at me!”
Inevitably, when I finally buy a stock, the price immediately goes down. And when I sell? That same stock suddenly remembers it’s supposed to go up. Every. Single. Time.
By the end of 2025, I finally accepted an uncomfortable truth: the stock market has a strange emotional connection to me, and that connection is mostly revenge.
Despite this, I like to think I’ve been investing responsibly. My usual method is very sensible. I look at the current price relative to the 52-week range and historical range. I check the company’s financial strength. I look at dividend yield. I do my homework. I make spreadsheets. I convince myself that this time will be different.
And then my portfolio underperforms anyway.
After watching this pattern repeat itself enough times to qualify as a personality trait, I realized that in 2026, I need a new strategy. Clearly, logic alone was not enough.
So here it is.
I will take my massive watchlist and split it into two equal halves.
One will be called The Lucky Half.
The other will be called The Unlucky Half.
I will completely ignore the Unlucky Half. I won’t analyze it. I won’t track prices. I won’t even accidentally scroll past it. I won’t even emotionally acknowledge its existence. It’s like a terrible ex—you don’t even need closure. Because no one wants unlucky stocks. If my past experience has taught me anything, it’s that attention itself might be the curse. Those stocks have already disappointed me in the future, and I’m choosing peace.
The Lucky Half, however, will get my full attention. This is where I will apply my usual analysis. For these stocks, I will carefully look at the current price relative to the 52-week range and historical range. I will examine financial strength. I will evaluate dividend yield.
The difference is that now, I’m only doing all this work on half the stocks.
At the very least, this new system saves time and most importantly, limits the number of stocks that can personally hurt me. After all, if a stock from the Lucky Half still goes down, that’s not my fault. Clearly, it migrated to the Unlucky Half without telling me. And if something in the Unlucky Half goes on to double? That’s fine. It was unlucky. The rules are the rules.
In summary, from 2026 onward, I will only buy from the Lucky Half. Not because the stocks are better, cheaper, or fundamentally stronger—but because they are lucky. And frankly, luck has a better track record than my analysis.
Comments
Rklb is building a new medium lift rocket and all the infrastructure to support it for $350 to $400 million. Pretty much all the others have spent billions and billions. That’s because future strategy and resource allocation are aligned. And that’s only one tiny bit of what they are achieving.
Same for Iren, they generated cash from bitcoin mining to buy land, buildings, and power infrastructure to support their move into Ai compute. The management is exceptional.
But do your own DD, and sure look at past performance, but focus on future potential.
I put all my stocks into boxes, growth, dividend, value, cyclical etc. the two stocks I mentioned are growth. And my expectations are over 100% return. Been in rocket lab over 2 years now and the return is over 1700% pa. Been in Iren since October this year and it’s down 20%, so I’m buying more every paycheck.
Id enjoy hearing your thoughts on everything I have said. Here to support
Instead I do ALOt of research. If it was $4 and it’s gone to $40, I will buy it at $40. It might drop to $20, so I buy more. Because in two years it will be worth $200. So if it goes up to $60, I’ll buy more as funds allow.
That’s what I mean about conviction. Knowledge is power, knowing everything you possibly can about a stock gives you conviction. Know it, buy it, then watch it. But more if your conviction remains in tact. If you screwed up and made a bad decision, dump it and move on. Or ride the wave of a bag holder, because it’s just a short term issue. $Venture Global, Inc.(VG)$ and $Arbor(ABR)$ are both stocks that I own that suck for me atm. But both had outcomes I did not expect. But both are so cheap now, I’m buying more
首先,你没有被诅咒。当你对一只股票有真正的信念并买入它时,预计它会下跌,当下跌时,买入更多。我购买的任何新股对我来说通常至少六个月内都没有表现。大多数时候,在它变得疯狂之前,我会在里面呆上几年。
第二,我没有观察名单。它没有油膏。我只有自己拥有的股票投资组合。对我来说,要么承诺,要么不承诺。
第三,我一次看一只股票。显然我对过去的表现很感兴趣。但这不是决定性的。正如沃伦·巴菲特曾经说过的,一个伟大的管理团队在一个糟糕的公司里也会很糟糕。所以我在一家伟大的公司寻找伟大的管理层。当我回顾过去时,未来更重要。我关注公司资源,以及最大化部署这些资源的管理策略。我举两个例子$Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$和$IREN Ltd(IREN)$.