10 Charts to Watch in 2026

Now it’s time to stop looking backwards, and time to focus forward with a list of my top 10 charts to watch in 2026 (and beyond).

These are the charts that I feel best capture the key macro/asset allocation issues relevant to investors right now (or that are likely to come onto the radar soon...) $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2603(ESmain)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2603(NQmain)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2603(YMmain)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$

1. From Tightening to Tailwinds:

the biggest story in macro of the 2020’s echoes on into 2026, with monetary policy going from tailwind in 2020 to tightening in 2023, and back to tailwinds again now. This is coming at a time where nascent signs are showing an upturn in the macro pulse from previous stagnation (e.g. the global manufacturing PMI pictured below). The path laid out by the monetary policy leading indicator here is a very interesting one indeed, and it’s not the only sign.

2. Global Growth Reacceleration:

the OECD leading indicators are also pointing to a major improvement in the global economy; we are going to need to get used to the term “reacceleration” (i.e. a big upturn out of previous slowdown; but not recession). Aside from monetary tailwinds there are several other factors working into this thesis such as fiscal stimulus, thematic capex, inventory cycles, and so-on. But there are a couple of logical flow-on effects we need to watch should this playout as planned.

3. Inflation Resurgence:

one key flow-on will almost certainly involve inflation resurgence. We’ve already seen global inflation rates settling into a new higher range and even begin to turn up. Psychologically there’s also going to be a greater sensitivity to any signs of renewed inflationary pressures given what we’ve just gone through in the early-2020’s.

4. Macro Metals:

this one joins the list of charts to watch in the year ahead once again as it’s going to be a key real-time indicator to track whether the reacceleration and resurgence theme is playing out as planned (i.e. an upside breakout).

And interestingly enough, it’s already made a sharp upside breakout. As noted the other day, base metals are playing catch-up vs monetary metals, and this is as much a positive sign for commodities as it is the global economy.

5. Cheap vs Expensive:

with gold (and stocks) already tracking at expensive levels, the obvious beneficiary from this macro prognosis is going to be cheap commodities. Indeed, if we see global growth reaccelerate and inflation resurgence, commodities are going to be a great hedge against that scenario.

But at the same time, don’t forget about that other cheap diversifier (bonds) in case things don’t quite work out as planned (more on that in a minute: chart 10).

6. Tail of Two Commodities:

within commodities, as noted, gold has already had a very strong run, and may well continue given the strong monetary tailwinds behind it and strong technical momentum. But this chart shows a sort of stretching of the rubber band as oil lags and gold leads. A strong inflationary upturn is going to boost more cyclical commodities like oil (and may take some steam out of gold).

7. Emerging Inflection Point:

it’s also the type of conditions under which emerging markets and global ex-US equities in general do well. And we’re already witnessing what looks like a major decadal turning point for EM equities.

8. Newer Higher Plateaus:

one problem is that US equities are already very richly priced and household allocations to equities are at a record highs. Also consider that this is all heavily concentrated in tech, and it points to one thing…

9. Dot-Com Echoes:

with US tech stocks trading at the most expensive relative valuations since the height of the dot com bubble – and defensives trading at the same deep discount, it almost looks too simple... If you want a harbinger chart, if there were ever going to be post-mortem clues that flagged the peak of this market cycle, it’s probably going to be this chart.

While an orderly economic upturn is likely to be supportive, a rapid reacceleration and resurgence in inflation is likely to trigger two things: rotation into beneficiary assets (traditional cyclical stocks, commodities) and out of tech + potentially an upswing in interest rates; which has historically hurt the more long-duration growth-tech stocks.

Hence a rethink on asset allocations is going to be required as the things that worked well in the past few years are unlikely to keep delivering in this type of scenario.

10. Market Cycle Signal:

lastly, this one not only adds to the cautionary tone on the market cycle, but also provides a prompt to have another think on bonds. There’s two ways we can be wrong on that “reacceleration” idea I’ve been going on about: e.g. more of the same middle-porridge (not too hot, not too cold), or: recession.

With bonds trading on cheap valuations and investor allocations to bonds at cycle lows, it makes them a classic contrarian play –not something to forget about (and yes: bonds are still downturn diversifiers). So again, the defensive barbell would be bonds to protect against recession and deflation, vs commodities to protect against a rapid reacceleration and inflation resurgence.

The good thing is we’ll probably get clues along the way, so we can scale-up exposure as evidence unfolds and we build clarity on the next big risks/opportunities.

Good reason to keep following my work here! :-)

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