Can Goldman Sachs (GS) Break Banks Earnings Drags?

$Goldman Sachs(GS)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Thursday, January 15, 2026, before the market opens.

The bank enters this report following a massive rally—shares are up roughly 65% over the last 12 months—and is trading near all-time highs (around $940–$950). This sets a high bar for performance, as much of the "dealmaking renaissance" may already be priced in.

Key Consensus Estimates (Q4 2025)

Earnings Per Share (EPS): ~$11.69 (Revisions have trended upward by 6% in the last 30 days).

Revenue: ~$14.54 billion (Expected growth of ~4.8% YoY).

Implied Move: Options markets suggest a potential stock move of +/- 4.5% to 5.5% post-earnings.

Goldman Sachs reported its fiscal Q3 2025 results on October 14, 2025. The quarter was characterized by a massive rebound in dealmaking and record-breaking asset growth, though the market's reaction was somewhat muted due to rising costs and high expectations.

Q3 2025 Financial Summary

• Earnings Per Share (EPS): $12.25, significantly beating the consensus estimate of $11.02.

• Revenue: $15.18 billion, a 20% increase YoY, surpassing expectations of $14.13 billion.

• Return on Equity (ROE): 14.2% (15.6% YTD).

• Assets Under Supervision (AUS): Reached a record $3.5 trillion.

Key Performance Drivers

1. Investment Banking Renaissance: Fees surged 42% YoY to $2.66 billion. This was fueled by a 60% jump in advisory fees, as the bank maintained its #1 global rank in M&A.

2. Asset & Wealth Management (AWM): This segment saw a 17% revenue increase ($4.4 billion). The firm successfully raised $33 billion in alternatives fundraising during the quarter alone.

3. FICC & Equities: Trading remained resilient with FICC (Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodities) revenues up 17%, though equities intermediation saw some softness that analysts noted as a minor drag.

Lessons Learnt from Guidance & Commentary

Management's outlook during the Q3 call provided several critical takeaways for investors:

• The "Sponsor" Tailwind: CEO David Solomon noted that private equity (sponsor) activity was tracking 40% higher than the previous year. With over $1 trillion in "dry powder" still on the sidelines, the guidance suggests that the M&A recovery is in its early-to-middle innings, not the end.

• AI as an Efficiency Lever (OneGS 3.0): Goldman is pivotally moving from "AI as a concept" to "AI as an operational requirement." The lesson for investors is that Goldman intends to use AI to keep headcount growth low even as deal volume increases, aiming for a consistent 60% efficiency ratio.

• Asset-Light Transition: The firm reiterated its goal to reduce balance-sheet investments (principal investing) in favor of fee-based revenue. This signals a move toward a "stickier," less volatile earnings profile that could eventually command a higher P/E multiple.

• Regulatory "Breathing Room": Management expressed optimism about a "constructive Basel III endgame," suggesting that lower capital requirements by summer 2026 could free up more capital for share repurchases and dividends.

Why the Stock Dipped Post-Earnings

Despite the beat, the stock fell about 2–4% on the day. The primary "lesson" for traders was that valuation matters. Having rallied over 35% YTD leading up to the report, the market viewed the results as "priced in." Additionally, operating expenses rose 14%, reminding investors that a "boom" in banking usually comes with a "boom" in employee compensation.

Key Metrics to Watch

Investors should focus on whether Goldman's pivot back to its "core" strengths is yielding the promised efficiency.

Goldman Sachs (GS) Price Target

Based on 19 analysts from Tiger Brokers app offering 12 month price targets for Goldman Sachs Group in the last 3 months. The average price target is $886.07 with a high forecast of $1,087.00 and a low forecast of $614.29. The average price target represents a -5.55% change from the last price of $938.15.

Analysis of Short-Term Trading Opportunities

The "Sell the News" Risk

Because GS has outperformed the S&P 500 and most peers in 2025, even a "beat" might lead to profit-taking if the 2026 outlook is anything less than stellar. The stock's Forward P/E of ~17x is high relative to its 5-year average (~11-13x), suggesting limited room for error.

Potential Trades

• The Bull Case (Upside Breakout): If Goldman beats the $11.69 EPS target significantly and provides aggressive 2026 guidance based on a massive M&A pipeline, the stock could test the $970–$1,000 psychological resistance.

• The Mean Reversion (Short-Term Pullback): If expenses (compensation) surprise to the upside or if trading revenue fails to capture the Q4 market volatility, a pullback to the $880–$900 support level is a technical possibility.

• Volatility Strategy (Straddle/Strangle): With implied volatility currently lower than historical post-earnings moves, some traders are looking at long options to capture a larger-than-expected swing, regardless of direction.

Recent Catalyst: The "Liberation Day" Factor

Analysts have noted a surge in M&A activity in late 2025 following shifts in U.S. trade and tariff policies (referred to as "Liberation Day" plans). Goldman’s leadership in advising on "megadeals" (transactions >$10B) is a primary driver for the current premium valuation.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

GS have been trading on an upside, though market is experiencing a slight consolidation, it is trading sideways, and investors are wondering whether the recent bank earnings which saw banks making decline after their earnings, would GS follow the trouble?

If GS’s M&A activity is very strong, and it can justify its current premium valuation, we could see GS making a short rally despite other bank making decline.

Summary

Goldman Sachs (GS) is set to report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Thursday, January 15, 2026, before the market opens. With the stock trading near record highs (~$940–$950) after a massive 2025 rally, the report is a critical test of whether its valuation can be sustained.

Financial Expectations

• Consensus EPS: ~$11.69 (Expected 2.2% decline YoY).

• Revenue: ~$14.54 billion (Expected 4.8% growth YoY).

• Net Interest Income (NII): Estimated at $3.3 billion, a significant 39% YoY jump due to robust loan demand and stabilizing deposit costs.

Key Analysis Pillars

1. Investment Banking (IB) Momentum: Analysts expect IB revenue to hit $2.6 billion (+27% YoY). This is driven by a late-2025 surge in M&A and an active IPO market fueled by lower rates and AI-sector activity.

2. The Apple Card Exit: A major one-time driver this quarter is the transition of the Apple Card program to JPMorgan. This move is expected to net-benefit EPS by $0.46 due to $2.48 billion in loan loss reserve releases, though it will be partially offset by portfolio markdowns.

3. Efficiency and Expenses: A recurring concern is rising compensation and tech costs. Investors will watch the Efficiency Ratio (target 60%) to see if Goldman can scale its revenue without a proportional spike in pay.

4. 2026 Guidance: The market is highly focused on management’s outlook for the "dealmaking renaissance." With private equity "dry powder" exceeding $1 trillion, any signal that the M&A pipeline is accelerating into 2026 could push the stock toward the $1,000 psychological milestone.

Summary Verdict

The "beat and raise" bar is high. Because Goldman has outperformed many peers in 2025, even a strong report might trigger "sell the news" profit-taking unless the 2026 guidance is exceptionally bullish. Technical support sits at $880–$900, while a major beat could see a breakout toward $970+.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think GS could break the bank earnings drag which saw U.S. banks stock decline after their earnings.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire @MillionaireTiger appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.