Reward 500 Tiger-coinsBig tech earnings are around the corner! Let’s see how institutions focus on this earnings season!
Citi: S&P 500 Q1 earnings growth is expected at +13.1% YoY, with the tech sector taking the lead.
Tech earnings growth forecast: +45%, highest across all sectors
Positive surprise probability: 90%, leading the second place (consumer staples at 70%) by 20 percentage points
Overall Q1 beat rate: 62%, the second-highest quarter since 2022
Three key themes wall street is betting on: will earnings season validate them?
📌 AI Cloud ( $Microsoft(MSFT)$ / $Alphabet(GOOG)$ )
Citi:
Azure Q3 expected at +39% cc, 1pp above company guidance . FY27 expected at 41% vs consensus 37%
Google Cloud +57.5% vs consensus +46.8% (11pp gap) ; Gemini MAU at 750M, Q1 DAU +268% YoY
Morgan Stanley:
MSFT price target $650 (vs current $423, +54% upside) ; Copilot paid seats at 15M; RPO +110% YoY to $625B
📌 Semiconductors
UBS:
$Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ up 20% in the past month, a move seen only 4 times in the past 5 years
$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ capex projected at $75B in 2027 and $85B in 2028
📌 AI Infrastructure
Citi:
AI server spending +70% YoY in 2026E; Non-AI server spending revised up from +7% to +50%
BofA:
Sees a $5.5 trillion AI infrastructure opportunity. The real opportunity is not chips, but power grids, cooling water, and transformers
⚠️ After software surged +13.6% in a single week (the biggest gain in a decade), Morgan Stanley warned that this rally is likely to fade.
What’s Your Take on This Earnings Season?
AI Cloud: After massive capex, are Azure / AWS growth rates truly inflecting?
Ads: Is Google search ad recovery real, or just a low-base effect?
Semiconductors: With model diversification, is NVIDIA’s CUDA moat still intact?
Consumer Electronics: Will iPhone China + Services show a real rebound this quarter?
Quick Poll: Which Theme Do You Buy Most This Earnings Season?
A. AI Cloud acceleration
B. Ad recovery
C. Semiconductors / AI infrastructure
D. Consumer electronics rebound
Drop your choice in the comments and win tiger coins!
Comments
AI Semiconductors' growth rate in 2025/2026 is 65% to 75%. This is due to extreme demand for Blackwell/Rubin GPUs, custom ASICs & High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).
AI Cloud Services' growth rate is 24% to 50% as enterprises are moving from AI pilots to full production workloads across Azure, AWS & Google Cloud.
So I would dollar cost average $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ as it has a dominant share of 86% to 90% of the AI data centre market.
With gross margins at an amazing 71 to 75%, NVIDIA operates with a level of pricing power that its competitors find hard to match.
I like NVIDIA's dominant margins, proven software moat & strong earnings. It is my top choice to capture this fantastic growth.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG
I’m more cautious on $Microsoft(MSFT)$ & $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ near term. Expectations for cloud growth are already very high, so even solid results may not be enough to drive upside. After the recent software rally, the risk of “sell the news” feels real.
On ads and consumer, I stay neutral. Alphabet’s ad recovery may be partly base-driven, while $Apple(AAPL)$ still needs clearer signs of a sustained China rebound. Overall, I prefer the AI infrastructure side where demand visibility is stronger.
@Tiger_comments @TigerClub @TigerStars
This is the most compelling theme to buy. The transition to "Agentic AI" has turned hardware demand into a structural necessity rather than a speculative trend. Companies like NVIDIA and Arista Networks are reporting actual, massive revenue growth from physical infrastructure builds, providing the most concrete evidence of profitability this season.