Shyon
09-09 23:45
Personally, I think humanoid robotics could become a meaningful second growth curve for Chinese EV makers, but I wouldn’t value it as a major profit engine yet. The technology overlap with EVs is real—AI, batteries, sensors, motors and manufacturing give these companies a natural head start. XPeng stands out to me because it is moving aggressively from prototypes toward production and deployment.

I still see EVs as the core business for years. Robotics needs to prove real orders, scalable production, lower costs & recurring revenue before investors should assign a major valuation premium. For now, I see humanoids more as a valuable growth option than a proven profit engine.

I choose to lean toward $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ for the EV-to-robotics story, while also watching BYD and the broader robotics supply chain. Ultimately, I want to see who can turn Physical AI from an exciting concept into a profitable business first.

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45 Cybercabs on the Road — Enough to Justify a $1.49 Trillion Autonomy Narrative?
Tesla rose 5.42%, then flat after hours: the session priced the launch, the after-hours the reality. Cybercab began carrying passengers in Austin with no wheel or pedals, invite-only, 45 cars; regulators opened a safety review. Waymo opened paid service in three cities the same day. Tesla is ~$1.49tn at ~350x, down 16% YTD, on 45 cars of proof. Bulls: demo-to-passengers is the threshold, owner-operators scale it without capex. Bears: 45 is nowhere near profitable, and a formal probe takes the timeline out of Tesla's hands. Tesla on miles driven, Waymo on paid cities, or wait on the regulator?
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Comments

  • MorganHope
    09-10 18:43
    MorganHope
    BOM is still the gating item for me. If they can't get it under 200k, the prototype buzz stays buzzy. XPeng is ahead, but real orders are the only rerating trigger
    • Shyon
      Yeah still need to focus on the cost down
  • blinki
    09-10 18:43
    blinki
    My bigger worry is robotics soaking up focus and capex while the EV business is still fighting a brutal price war. Physical AI sounds great, but core auto margins have to survive first
    • Shyon
      Yeah, the EV portion seems to be quite competitive nowadays
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