In May, against the background of the rising prices of non-ferrous metals and precious metals, international crude oil prices did not follow suit, but continued to fall from the high point set in April. At a time when global monetary policy is about to enter an inflection point of easing, U.S. inflation is resilient, China's economy is recovering moderately, and crude oil is in the same macro environment as other rising industrial products. Why hasn't it risen sharply?The macro environment is favorable for commoditiesIn overseas markets, the expectations of central banks turning to easing are very strong, especially the decline in inflation in the United States, which has stimulated the Fed's interest rate cut expectations to heat up again. The United States released inflation data for Apr

The foreign exchange market has been calm in the past few years. The large shock mode of the the US Dollar Index has caused most currencies to trade in a range mode. However, there are also outliers among them. The yen continues to fall and set a new historical low, but it is still not intervened by the central bank. What is the reason behind allowing the yen to fall?From the trend of the yen in CME group, it can be seen that the historic low has been moving down in the past few months, which also includes the macro environment where the Bank of Japan has begun to tighten. Looking forward, the Bank of Japan also briefly intervened in the foreign exchange market in 2022-2023, but the intensity was relatively limited, and the yen also rebounded slightly before sinking again.Obviously, from t

The situation in the Middle East has once again become the focus of the market in recent days, with some concerns about the conflict between Iran and Israel. Although both sides have shown signs of perseverance, it is more likely that there will be “big thunder, little rain”. At the same time, referring to the geopolitical conflicts and small-scale military operations that have occurred several times before, the financial market can basically digest the impact within a week, so short-term fluctuations are difficult to shake the market trend.In theory, gold and crude oil are naturally the most sensitive to this topic. Last Friday's rise and fall seem to have previewed the weekend's soap opera in advance: Compared with a real fight, it seems more cost-effective to make a tough statement to g

Driven by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, market concerns about the tense situation in the Middle East and the interruption of energy supplies such as oil, international crude oil once soared sharply. The picture shows the price trend of the May WTI crude oil futures contract, which is currently hovering at $86.35.PictureFrom the perspective of supply and demand, the sluggish demand has led to no large-scale destocking even though OPEC continued to cut production. However, U.S. crude oil took the opportunity to seize market share and increased production and exports on a large scale. The global crude oil supply is not tight. The rise in crude oil prices is mainly due to the geopolitical crisis and speculative buying under the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Looking ah

The bulls in the crude oil market that continued in the first quarter have helped the price return to the central axis level we defined. With the emergence of high pressure and the small deviation between US stocks and stock indexes, we expect that it will be more difficult for oil prices to go up. For low buy/long investments, now may be the time to at least partially lock in profits.At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, we introduced the composition of crude oil price range: above 95/100 is the level of selling crude oil reserves by the US government (Biden made clear), while below 70 US dollars is the level of buying back crude oil reserves. The 84 line in the middle of the two is defined as the central axis because of the obvious change of hands. Under the big shock m

Why Oil Fell Despite War? $WTI Crude Oil - main 2406(CLmain)$ Which market is a better hedge when a geopolitical conflict started. I know many will say that it must be crude oil. Over the past 2 major conflicts, we could see that crude oil did not gain any momentum, in fact it came off. So which markets have reacted positively to all these tensions so far, and will continue to remain this way with future tensions?Follow me to learn more about analysis!!https://www.facebook.com/Weipedia/?ref=page_internal