🌟🌟🌟The global financial markets are currently running on a mix of high octane relief, massive macro bets and the sheer refusal to let reality ruin a good party. Following the US Federal Reserve's unanimous 25 basis point interest rate hike, Wall Street pulled off a spectacular post hike reversal.  The tech heavy Nasdaq surged and the broader markets cheered.  For a Singaporean investor looking at the Straits Times Index (STI), this macro turbulence dictates the exact temperature of our local market. Here is exactly what the market is betting on, how the global gears are grinding and what it means for fresh capital in Singapore. What is Driving the Rally? The rally was sparked by the US 10 year Treasury yields slipping back below the psychological 5% line right after the announcem

The answer was A. After weeks and days anticipating the increase, the verdict is out and markets have also reacted strongly. The FED was unanimous of its decision and its the first step to further increases. As of 18 September 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose another 2.8%, its fourth consecutive gain, and finally broke above its 50-day moving average after that level had acted as resistance since July. The backdrop is still unusually volatile, the SOX had fallen about 21% in July, so some of what we are seeing is recovery from a major drawdown rather than a fresh move from a stable base. Next to watch : Micron earnings on 30 Sep

So, the question posed here was what is the market betting on going forward. Lower unemployment? Another rate hike? I'm at the point where I'm really not bothered. Last week the market was back on the AI bubble thing again, this week costs of micron chips are going up 500%, and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  is to double its production... so it's not a bubble, but probably the waffle of Wall Street will contradict itself again several more times this month. I'm over it!  I'm from a tiny country at the bottom of the world called New Zealand, so I have to hold a world view, compared to an "American" world view. Case and point, the World Series that Americans hold in their country that only includes America. Not trying to be obtrusive here, I was mar

A. Treasury yields keep falling. The post-Fed rally looks encouraging, especially with semiconductors leading, but I think yields are the key confirmation signal. If the 10-year can move sustainably below 5%, valuation pressure on growth and tech stocks should ease and give the rally more room. For now, I see this more as a rebound that still needs confirmation rather than the start of a clear new rally. Oil and the Fed remain important because either could push yields higher again.

C. everything else is news used to justify stock market movement

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Still bullish overall. JH and MZ continues to push the AI and chip narrative.

Expected should be ok. Actually I like interest rate high a bit

C. 💻 Tech and semiconductors stay strong Brent fell 2.7% to $105.83 after Saudi Arabia began moving more crude through Oman, partially relieving the immediate supply squeeze. Hormuz traffic, however, remains extremely depressed. The post-Fed market is stabilising: global equities rebounded as Treasury yields retreated and Brent eased to $104.82, although both borrowing costs and energy remain restrictive. The important investment message is that the macro shock has eased slightly,e no hard evidence of AI infrastructure demand rolling over. $Broadcom(AVGO)$ just reported perhaps the strongest confirmation: Q3 AI semiconductor revenue was +221% YoY and +54% QoQ, with Q4 AI semiconductor revenue guided to +236% YoY. Q3 FCF was $13.7B, or 46% of r

For my view: C. Tech & semiconductors stay strong I see this as more likely a short-term rebound first, not yet proof of a new strong rally. Why? 10-year yield below 5% → helps growth stocks. Oil falling → reduces inflation pressure. AI/chips strong → brings investors back to NVDA, AMD, MU, INTC. But the Fed is still hawkish, with rates at 3.75%–4.00%. If the 10-year yield goes back above 5%, tech stocks could face pressure again. What I would watch: Yield ↓ + Oil ↓ + AI earnings ↑ = rally has a better chance to continue. If only tech rebounds for a few days while yields rise again, it may be just a relief rally. Bottom line:  I would not chase aggressively yet. Watch Treasury yields and AI/chip strength first.

A. 📉 Treasury yields keep falling I’d pick A — but the deeper story is not that the Fed suddenly turned dovish. The Fed just raised rates to 3.75%–4.00%, while signaling inflation remains elevated. Thursday’s rally was more about financial conditions. When the 10-year yield slipped back below 5%, the discount-rate pressure on long-duration tech stocks eased. Falling oil added another layer of relief by reducing inflation concerns. That explains why semiconductors led the rebound: when yields fall, high-growth companies with strong earnings expectations can re-rate quickly. The real test now is whether the 10-year can stay below 5%. If yields rise again, Thursday’s relief rally could quickly face another valuation squeeze. My vote: A — yields are the key variable to watch.

A. 📉 Treasury yields keep falling. For me, the bond market is the key signal. If yields continue to ease, that could support valuations and give growth stocks more room to run—even with the Fed still sounding relatively hawkish.

I’d pick A — falling Treasury yields. If yields keep easing, that could give growth and tech stocks more breathing room even with the Fed staying cautious.

Interesting disconnect: Arc gets major institutional names involved, yet the stock still sells off. That suggests the market may be demanding more than partnerships — actual adoption, transaction growth and earnings diversification could be the next proof points.

I’m watching C — higher for longer. Even if we don’t see another hike soon, rates staying elevated can still put pressure on valuations and keep volatility high. For me, the key is whether inflation cools enough to give the Fed room to ease without reigniting price pressures.

🔥 FED HIKED. STOCKS DIDN’T CARE. That’s what caught my attention Thursday. The Fed just raised rates 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, with policymakers still signalling another hike could come this year. Yet stocks ripped higher: 🚀 Nasdaq +1.69% 📈 S&P 500 +1.14% 📉 10Y Treasury yield back to ~4.93% 🛢️ Brent crude ~1% lower And jobless claims came in at just 196K, pointing to continued labour-market resilience.  So what is the market actually saying? Maybe the trade isn’t “Fed is dovish.” Maybe it’s: “As long as oil and long-term yields keep coming down, investors can look through the hike.” But here’s the catch 👀 Markets were still pricing about a 53% chance of another October hike on Thursday.  Is this the start of a bigger risk-on move, or are investors getting too comfortable with the Fed’s ha

The Fed just raised rates. And the market basically said: “Okay… now what?” 👀 Thursday delivered a powerful rebound: 📈 Nasdaq-100 +1.73% 📈 S&P 500 +1.14% 📈 SPY +1.13% 📈 QQQ +1.73% The S&P 500 recovered Wednesday’s Fed-day decline and closed at 7,637.76, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.69%.  But the interesting part wasn’t the Fed. 🛢️ OIL FELL Brent dropped to around $104.82, easing some of the inflation pressure that had been pushing yields higher.  📉 YIELDS FELL The 10-year Treasury yield dropped back below 5%, ending around 4.93% after briefly crossing 5% following Wednesday’s decision.  👷 JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL Initial claims dropped to 196,000, below expectations of roughly 207,000. That creates an interesting combination: Stronger labour data + lower oil + lower yields = a much easi