Sep. CPI: Will rate hike pause in November?

September headline CPI is 3.7%, slightly higher than consensus of 3.6%; core CPI is 4.1%, lower than previous data of 4.3%. ---------------------------- Any thoughts on the CPI data? Will rate hike pause in November? How to trade after the CPI report?

avatar许亚鑫
2023-10-08

What does a stronger than expected non-farm Payrolls mean for the market?

According to the forecast of 23 large investment banks, the increase of non-farm payrolls in the United States is expected to be between 150,000 and 240,000, the unemployment rate is expected to be between 3.6% and 3.9%, and the average hourly wage is expected to increase at an annual rate of 4.3%-4.4%.The final data showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 336,000 in September, the largest increase since the beginning of this year.Far exceeding the expected 170,000, the value was 187,000 in early August.What is even more exaggerated is that the employment data of the previous two months has also been greatly revised upwards: the number of new people in August was revised up by 40,000 to 227,000; The number of new people in July was greatly revised from
1927
What does a stronger than expected non-farm Payrolls mean for the market?
avatarMaverickWealthBuilder
2023-10-13

BIG TECH WEEKLY | Previews on Big-techs' Q3 Earnings

Big-Tech’s PerformanceSep CPI beat estimate, which boosted yields that had recently dropped slightly, again, leading a increasing estimate of tightening in November. As a result, risk-off mode on, US stocks down at the beginning of the Q3 earnings season. As close of Oct 12th, almost all major tech companies had gained in the past five trading days, with $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ +6.36%, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ +5.06%, $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ +5.05%, $Microsoft(MSFT)$ +3.69%, $Apple(AAPL)$ +3.32%, $Alphabet(GOOG)$ +2.89%, only
417
BIG TECH WEEKLY | Previews on Big-techs' Q3 Earnings
avatarTigerObserver
2023-10-09

Weekly: September inflation, Israel-Hamas conflict and Banks earnings highlight the week

Last Week's RecapThe US Market - The tech-heavy Nasdaq led to reboundThe stock market remained a fight between bulls and bears as Treasury yields surged to fresh 16-year highs. The S&P 500 and the Dow undercut recent lows early in the week, but bounced back late in the week led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq.The U.S. economy added 336,000 jobs in September, about double expectations. Average hourly wages rose a tame 0.2% for a second straight month, lowering the 12-month increase to 4.2%. The jobless rate held at 3.8% for a second month.Stocks posted a stunning turnaround on Friday. The 10-year Treasury yield once skyrocketed as high as 4.89%. Traders were unclear of the reason for the intraday reversal. Some noted it could be the softer wage number in the jobs report that made investors ret
271
Weekly: September inflation, Israel-Hamas conflict and Banks earnings highlight the week
avatarMaverickWealthBuilder
2023-10-09

Some Takeaways of Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

Palestine’s Hamas launched an unprecedented attack on Israel over the weekend, resulting in the deaths of more than 700 Israelis. At the same time, Israel declared a state of legitimate war for the first time in its government's name since 1973. Additionally, dozens of hostages, including Americans, were taken back to Gaza.For both parties in the conflictIsrael's military prowess in the Middle East is not "unbeatable." $iShares MSCI Israel ETF(EIS)$ Israel's significant intelligence failures left it unprepared for Hamas's hybrid warfare tactics, including lightning-fast small team raids and basic drone attacks.Internal political divisions in Israel may have contributed to the success of this attack.The United States, as an ally, may have been more
328
Some Takeaways of Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
avatarTiger_comments
2023-10-10

From a Historical View: Bearish or Bullish on Israel Conflicts?

Some argue that wars can create economic instability, leading to bearish trends in the stock market, while others contend that certain sectors, like defense and technology, might experience bullish growth during times of conflict.The war bulls list the wars and index performance. It seems that 4 out of 5 presented upward momentum after the war broke out.The bears compare the price trend of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and oil prices $WTI Crude Oil - main 2311(CLmain)$ Let’s look at the recent war in 2022:The first chart shows that $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rebounded soon after Russia-Ukraine conflicts broke out on 24th Feb, 2022.However, for a longer period, the index kept
186161
From a Historical View: Bearish or Bullish on Israel Conflicts?
avatarMaverickWealthBuilder
2023-10-11

Why this time, US Treasuries decides all assets?

Starting from early September, long-term government bonds represented by 10-year U.S. Treasuries have rapidly increased. On October 3rd, the yield on the 10-year government bond surpassed 4.81%, and the 10-year TIPS yield exceeded 2.45%, marking new highs since 2007 and 2008, respectively. This has had a global impact, with pressure on U.S. stocks and other emerging markets, and a significant drop in the price of gold. As October began, U.S. bond yields started to retreat, and the U.S. stock market saw some degree of rebound.With the recent surge of the "anchor of global asset pricing," an increasing number of senior Federal Reserve officials believe that the sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields, tightening financial conditions, can substitute for further increases in the benchmark interest
15
Why this time, US Treasuries decides all assets?
avatarMrzorro
2023-10-11
Assessing the Impact of Soaring U.S. Treasury Yields: Who Will Be Most Affected? Heading into October, surging U.S. Treasury yields are once again causing turbulence in global financial markets and raising investor concerns. Last week saw the $U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bonds Yield (US30Y.BD)$ surge above 5%, a level not seen in 16 years. After the $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ climbed to 4.85%, market experts predict that the benchmark yield will reach 5% for the first time since 2007. The sell-off in the U.S. Treasury market has pushed borrowing costs to levels not seen in over a decade, directly impacting major buyers such as the Federal Reserve, U.S. banks,pension funds, insurance companies, and overseas investors. Furthermore, this trend indirectly threatens various parts
RepostReply
avatarJinHan
2023-10-12

US PPI Data: A Prelude to Potential Market Turbulence

On October 11, 2023, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Producer Price Index (PPI) data for September, which painted a mixed picture of the nation’s economic health. With inflation at the forefront of investors’ minds, this article delves into the intricacies of the latest PPI report, exploring what it could imply for the forthcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for release on October 12, 2023. Furthermore, it assesses the implications of these inflation figures on the financial markets and offers insights into potential strategies for investors. 1. US PPI Data Highlights: The US PPI data for September revealed the following key points: • Inflation Uptick: The PPI increased by 0.5% in September, surpassing expectations. This acceleration was primarily driven by hi
18
US PPI Data: A Prelude to Potential Market Turbulence
avatarZEROHERO
2023-10-11

The Eagerly Awaited PPI & FOMC Minutes To Move Market On Wed 🧐

48% gain within 60 mins from taking calls at open. The market is not at all affected by the Israel-Hamas conflict with treasury yields retreating and market surging forth. ⚠️ Trading tips: looking at QQQ calls above 369.55 and puts below 367.78 on Wednesday. On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to unveil the eagerly awaited Producer Price Index (PPI) report for September, a day before the widely-followed Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Both the PPI and the CPI constitute the final two crucial economic indicators leading up to the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting scheduled for 31 Oct to 1 Nov. Ride the trend for now The magnificent seven are up approximately 96% year-to-date on average versus the equal weight S&P 500 index, which is flat. That 
110
The Eagerly Awaited PPI & FOMC Minutes To Move Market On Wed 🧐
avatarJinHan
2023-10-11

Anticipating a September Surprise: Why CPI May Tumble

Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures are always closely monitored, as they offer a snapshot of the economy’s health and guide monetary policy. In this article, we will delve into what drives CPI, explore the factors behind the expectation of lower CPI in September, and discuss the potential market reactions.$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$  1. Understanding CPI: • What Is CPI? The Consumer Price Index is a crucial economic indicator that measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of cons
Repost6
Anticipating a September Surprise: Why CPI May Tumble
avatarTiger_comments
2023-10-11

Will rate hike pause and US treasury yield peak as expected?

On Tuesday, 10-year US Treasury yield dropped by around 17 basis points, falling below 4.7%. Amid escalating tensions in the Israeli-Hamas conflict, investors turned to traditional safe-haven assets like government bonds, driving up bond prices and causing yields to decrease. $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ Despite of this decline, US treasury yields remain elevated and put pressure on stock market $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ and Fed officials.Fed officials express dovish signals: rate hike may pause again in November?Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday,The recent runup in US long-term bond yields is puzzling.Logan, the Dallas Federal Reserve president and a member of the rat
2944
Will rate hike pause and US treasury yield peak as expected?
avatarTechnicalHunter
2023-09-13

Buy SQQQ & SOXS as Magnificent 7 Stocks are on Their Way Down!

On Tuesday's trading day, $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ rose 3.35%. Its trading volume ranked seventh in the entire US stock market, with a trading volume of $95.65M.At the same time, $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$ fell 3.35%, ranking 10th in the entire US stock market in trading volume, with a trading volume of $77.76M.Will you buy $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ or $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$ ?Firstly, I believe that you know the above two triple-leveraged ETFs and $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ (down 1.11%) are tracking the index of $NASDAQ 1
206
Buy SQQQ & SOXS as Magnificent 7 Stocks are on Their Way Down!
avatarMaverickWealthBuilder
2023-10-12

Will Adobe's AI reboost its YTD high?

Adobe MAX user conference and Analyst Day was centered around the theme of generative artificial intelligence, or Gen AI, and highlighted Adobe's range of offerings that support the needs of all audiences. $Adobe(ADBE)$ It seems like ADBE has moved towards its YTD high since last earnings. Is there still a buy on its AI-driven product?Tuesday, Adobe unveiled Firefly Image 2 Model and also showcased Adobe GenStudio — a new service which brings together Creative Cloud, Express and Experience Cloud, with Firefly gen. AI — among other tools and features.Photoshop's AI powers land on Chromebooks as Adobe debuts Firefly 2 | PCWorldOur point on Adobe’s AI is thatLimited Firefly data disclosure. Firefly is ADBE's core AI offering. In the six months since
15
Will Adobe's AI reboost its YTD high?
avatarMaverickWealthBuilder
2023-09-15

BIG TECH WEEKLY | Why Apple's So Hard To Entertain You?

Big-Tech’s PerformanceMacro level, the unexpectedly high August CPI released this week may serve as a guide for the next month. Meanwhile, Apple's product launch was unimpressive, but market risk appetite is gradually increasing, primarily due to the slowly emerging advantages of certain tech stocks in the AI era.As of the closing on September 14th, all big techs record positive return over the past week. The strongest performers was $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ with +12.64%, followed by $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ with +4.6%, $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ with +3.38%, $Microsoft(MSF
266
BIG TECH WEEKLY | Why Apple's So Hard To Entertain You?
avatarJC888
2023-08-13

If CPI Continues To Rise, Will Fed Raise Interest Again?

The weekend is upon us. It is time to kick off the shoes and relax a bit, even for a fleeting moment. Still doing my readings on varied topics / subjects to keep engaged. Also, letting my imaginations run amok as I hypothesize about the “what-ifs”. In another Multi-verse, it might just be the “truth”. What am I getting up to? US July Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released on Thu, 10 Jul 2023. It came in at 3.2%; 1% off the mark from wall street 3.3% forecast. Comparatively speaking, its +0.2% higher than June 3.0% CPI though. Backdrop Against The 3.2% July CPI: The Kingdom and Russia have “volunteered” to reduce output capacity by 1 Million barrels per day since July 2023. This has “effectively” drove up oil prices. On 03 Aug 2023, Saudi Arabia announced that the additional 1 Mi
245835
If CPI Continues To Rise, Will Fed Raise Interest Again?
avatarMaverickWealthBuilder
2023-10-12

Birkenstock's IPO should be the reflect of luxury goods' downtrend

German high-end footwear manufacturer $Birkenstock Holding plc(BIRK)$ debuted on the US stock market with a closing price of $40.2, a 12.6% drop from its initial public offering price of $46. The stock opened at $41, an 11% drop, making it the worst-performing new stock in over two years with a valuation of over $1 billion. Analysis: Birkenstock's IPO turns south as shares slide on first day of trading | CNN BusinessBirkenstock's market value is now over $8 billion based on the closing price. French billionaire Bernard Arnault and his luxury goods conglomerate $LVMH-Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton(LVMHF)$ invested in Birkenstock's controlling stake in 2021, valuing the company at $4.35 billion. L Catterton,
145
Birkenstock's IPO should be the reflect of luxury goods' downtrend
avatarMaverickWealthBuilder
2023-09-14

Why Netflix Plunged 5%?

Event $Netflix(NFLX)$ plunged 5%+ on Wednesday, due to the CFO providing relatively negative guidance at the Bank of America Media, Communications, and Entertainment Summit. He believes that the company's advertising business will not have a significant impact on the company in the short term and announced an operating profit margin guidance of 18-20%, which is lower than the market's consensus expectation of 22%.The market's high expectations for profit margins are mainly based on the anticipation of a high-margin advertising business, indicating that Netflix's advertising business may be constrained by certain factors.Investment HighlightsRevenue is still growing positively, but the growth expectation for ARPU should not be too high. The market
225
Why Netflix Plunged 5%?
avatarysawm
2023-10-10
The CPI has a significant impact on financial markets and can provide valuable insights for traders and investors alike. In this article, I'll share my thoughts on whether core CPI will continue to drop as expected, offer my expectations for September CPI, and discuss how I plan to trade this week. Will Core CPI Continue to Drop as Expected? In recent months, the trend in core CPI has been closely watched by economists, policymakers, and market participants. Core CPI excludes volatile food and energy prices, providing a more stable gauge of inflation. It's important because high inflation can erode the purchasing power of consumers and affect the overall health of the economy. I believe that the direction of core CPI will largely depend on several factors, including supply chain disru
Repost5
avatarZEROHERO
2023-09-13

How Best To Trade The CPI Data?

Following the conclusion of the Apple Wonderlust event, the market’s attention is shifting to Wednesday morning, when Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data will be released. ⚠️ Trading tips: looking at calls above 446.5 and puts below 444.5 after CPI data releases. Another day of big move coming up after days of consolidation expected. Not financial advice 😉 Some room for the upside? 🤔 The Bad News According to the forecasts, this forthcoming inflation report is expected to diverge significantly from recent ones, raising concerns that have been dormant for over a year. Economists are anticipating a substantial year-on-year surge in the overall CPI index for August, projecting a rate of 3.6%, a notable increase from the 3.2% recorded in July. More worrisome is the estimated monthly pric
1113
How Best To Trade The CPI Data?
avatarMaverickWealthBuilder
2023-09-13

Oracle Down 13%? It's an over-estimate correction

$Oracle(ORCL)$ dropped 13% after release of FY24Q1 earnings report as of August 31. The decline was primarily attributed to lower-than-expected cloud licensing revenue, leading investors to question whether the company could meet its AI-related expectations. However, despite this setback, Oracle has seen a year-to-date increase of over 35%, making it the second-best year since the internet bubble of 2000. It is much like a correction following overly optimistic expectations.Earnings Overview- Revenue: $12.45 billion, a 9% year-on-year increase, slightly below the market's expected $12.47 billion.- Cloud revenue: $4.6 billion, a 29% year-on-year increase at constant exchange rates, down from 55% in the previous quarter.- Cloud services and license
146
Oracle Down 13%? It's an over-estimate correction