Rate pause again: Will market stop decline?

Fed will announce rate hike decision on 1st November. Analysts believe that while Powell dismissed the possibility of a rate hike in November, he also left the door open for further rate increases in order not to let the market get carried away. ---------------------- ● How will market move with another rate hike pause? ● What is your investment strategy amid the uncertain outlook?

avatarIvan Martchev
2023-11-02

Initial Signs Of A Treasury Yield Top

Summary By themselves, Treasury yields spiking out of control can cause a recession, and October delivered both a 5% yield on 10-year Treasury bonds and 8% fixed-rate mortgages. We have gotten into a situation where the avalanche of Treasury issuance (due to a last minute debt ceiling deal) is overwhelming investors. The U.S. Treasury had to issue more debt because they could not issue any debt before the debt ceiling deal. Ralf Hahn By themselves, Treasury yields spiking out of control can cause a recession, and October delivered both a 5% yield on 10-year Treasury bonds and 8% fixed-rate mortgages. We have gotten into a situation where the avalanche of Treasury issuance (due to a last minute debt ceiling deal) is overwhelming investors. The U.S. Treasury had to issue more debt bec
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Initial Signs Of A Treasury Yield Top
avatarMezar Alee
2023-11-02

Fed Expected to Hold Rates Steady But Further Hikes Loom as Inflation Persists

The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day November policy meeting on Wednesday, with broad expectations that the central bank will hold interest rates unchanged this time but potentially signal additional hikes ahead as it fights stubborn inflation. The Fed’s policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference will offer critical clues on the future path of rates. Markets widely anticipate the Fed maintaining its current target fed funds rate range of 5.25% to 5.50%, following four straight 0.75 percentage point increases. However, the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability means further tightening can’t yet be ruled out with inflation still running hot. The policy decision will be announced at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. While rat
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Fed Expected to Hold Rates Steady But Further Hikes Loom as Inflation Persists
avatarMezar Alee
2023-11-02

Stocks Climb Ahead of Highly Anticipated Fed Rate Decision

U.S. stocks moved higher Wednesday morning as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, set for release this afternoon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 181 points, or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.8%. Information technology stocks led the market higher, with semiconductor names like Advanced Micro Devices and Micron Technology surging on upbeat guidance. The rally came despite mixed economic data showing a contraction in manufacturing activity but a slight uptick in job openings in September. All eyes are on the Fed’s 2 p.m. policy statement, which is expected to maintain rates steady following four consecutive 0.75 percentage point hikes. Traders anticipate the Fed will signal plans to slow its a
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Stocks Climb Ahead of Highly Anticipated Fed Rate Decision
avatarQiqriqi
2023-11-01
Nope not for now[Smile]  
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avatarWoowee
2023-11-01
Pause as inflation is not increasing as much
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avatarTigerObserver
2023-11-01

Oct. Recap: Will $SPX's Top 10 Winners Continue to Shine in Nov.?

[Miser]Hello Tigers,The once-anticipated "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" market for U.S. stocks did not materialize as expected this year. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ set a record for its longest monthly losing streak since March 2020.As of the close on October 31, the performances of popular stock markets in October are as follows: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , $DJIA(.DJI)$ , $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ , $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ , $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ Among them, the performance of each sector of $S&P 50
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Oct. Recap: Will $SPX's Top 10 Winners Continue to Shine in Nov.?
avatarBorisBack
2023-11-01
SPX $S&P 500(.SPX)$ stocks above 200ema (2x1)dly - From our confluent targets, we have printed an "X". Want to move back above 30.00 to suggest a more positive outlook. Moving back above 50.00 would be considered bullish.Image
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avatarMyrnaNorth
2023-11-01

Mkt P/E still above 20, I'll wait

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ The Mkt might be tradable up to the 4,300 level, but I wouldn't set up camp just yet:Middle East crisis appears contained-- Remains to be seen. Highly dependent on the role the Saudis play. With all the military traffic hanging out by the Suez, I can't image that these are optimal conditions for energy transporters.Room For Inflation To Surprise Lower (energy/shelter prices)-- Inflation is either set to reaccelerate or stay at current elevated levels; housing starts are bouncing, Q3 GDP was hot (without the proportionate tax receipts), retail sales surging, Durable Goods Orders up, UAW strike about over, wages still growing, IP up.Fed Is Likel
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Mkt P/E still above 20, I'll wait
avatarFranklinMorley
2023-11-01

The VIX Warned Us Of This Move In August. Where Do We Go From Here?

On August 7th, I posted the following chart…SPX_VIXAnd made the following comment…“Over the last 5 years, we’ve had 4 instances where the VIX $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ has declined to very low levels thus creating the wedge patterns you see in the lower panel of the chart (remember, the lower panel is inverted so “very low levels” on the VIX correspond to elevated levels on the VIX in the chart).When those wedge patterns broke, it was typically not very good for the S&P 500.We need to watch the VIX, and especially the 15-day moving average, in the coming days and weeks.”Fast forward, and here is the updated chart.SPX_VIX2Note that the VIX did break out of its wedge pattern (highlighted with the yellow circle) and as expected, the S&
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The VIX Warned Us Of This Move In August. Where Do We Go From Here?
avatarEmilyMark
2023-11-01

A severe bear trap followed by a rally

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ it's hard to say exactly what is happening. On one hand futures look to be ready to go up, on the other hand, QQQ $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ looks like it could pullback to it's gap. I'm not sure what's going to happen. We may get a severe bear trap followed by a rally.
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A severe bear trap followed by a rally
avatarMatthewWalter
2023-11-01

Feel like some sort of surprise is coming

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ Feel like some sort of surprise is coming.Hope I am wrong.Just has a feel about it that something is close to happening.I do not know what the news is. And since I do not know I'm not going to make guesses. I stay in my lane - but the moves implied here are usually news driven.Hope isn't a trade plan, but I really hope we don't see some horrible news. I'm not cheerleading it - I'm just saying it's to be expected if there's a market break.
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Feel like some sort of surprise is coming
avatarBorisBack
2023-11-01

BULLISH NASDAQ

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Here is the trick, one way or the other this pair daily candle will close bullish. Entry at 14263.2 stops below 14158.3 targets 14634.5I cracked the algoNQ should also have support at the yellow line, another reason I'm suspicious even though I think a down move is likely.
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BULLISH NASDAQ
avatartomthetrader1
2023-11-01

This Correction Still Looks Similar to the One in 2022

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closes October -2.2% and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ -2%. This correction still looks and feels similar to the severe corrections that occurred in 2022. Relief rallies find rejection at the moving averages, and breadth remains consistently negative. This is in the lower panel of the chart. Next week is 9 consecutive weeks of negative market breadth. The "below the surface" part of the market has been detonated. So long as price remains below and rejected by this short term moving average I do not think the correction has concluded and favour the 3950 - 4100 range for correction bottom. This remains the range I will like to take long exposure.Image
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This Correction Still Looks Similar to the One in 2022
avatartomthetrader1
2023-10-31

Analysis on .SPX

At the surface of the market the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ and $DJIA(.DJI)$ all rallied > 1% meanwhile breadth remains nothing short of horrible. Many more stocks made new lows today. Rallies like today are not the type to get me excited. My speculation remains that the 3950-4100 range will build out a correction base. The larger surprise from weekend thread is the volume of comments pointing towards 3950 not being “low enough”. The lower boundary of the range is an additional 5% — plenty of room for fear to lose participants.ImageImageImageFollow me to learn more about analysis !!https://twitter.com/tomthetrader1
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Analysis on .SPX
avatarHardy1
2023-11-01
My investment strategy will be to study the market and be a bit reluctant to venture into any investment that the returns will be negatively affected by the current market situation. If the Fed rate is hiked I presume that there will be an increase inflation which will positively increase investment earnings at a comparable pace . However high inflation can negatively impact nominal returns. 
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avatarHardy1
2023-11-01
The Fed rate hike will make it more expensive for  consumers and businesses to borrow money and this will results in the fall of demand of goods and services, making producers to reduce the prices of goods and services. This will make the market humming, not too hot, not too cold but just right.
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avatarTZ1SANZ
2023-10-31
Nice the good project investasi 
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avatarromanc9
2023-10-31
Yes market will stop declined. 
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avatarDyl do
2023-10-31
Stop it's gotta stop ? What are your thoughts 
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avatarMyrnaNorth
2023-10-31
$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ As a buy and hold investor (or seldom sell, as you say), I never take things in that manner. And I too invest in individual companies. And I too don't mind the opportunity to add.I'm still this much bullish, I think we will finish the year higher than today. That's not much to invest on. And we may go lower in the next week or two. I hope that, as the market has done all year, it's a modest drop, and then the mere recovery from the lows can fulfil peoples' previous forecasts of a rally!
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