The increased market volatility that started two weeks ago is likely to intensify, with a large amount of data being released this week.On Wednesday, various data releases will begin: the ADP employment report, JOLTS, and ISM, followed by the Treasury bond auction at 1 pm Eastern Time, and then the FOMC interest rate decision.Since a no rate hike in November FOMC is already the consensus expectation in the market, the focus will be on Powell's press conference.Fed Tools at CMEDuring a special interview two weeks ago, Powell told investors not to think that the Fed's job is done even if there is no rate hike. It is expected that Powell will continue to convey this message in the statement and press conference.So far, economic data continues to support the Fed taking more or longer tightenin

On August 7th, I posted the following chart…SPX_VIXAnd made the following comment…“Over the last 5 years, we’ve had 4 instances where the VIX $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ has declined to very low levels thus creating the wedge patterns you see in the lower panel of the chart (remember, the lower panel is inverted so “very low levels” on the VIX correspond to elevated levels on the VIX in the chart).When those wedge patterns broke, it was typically not very good for the S&P 500.We need to watch the VIX, and especially the 15-day moving average, in the coming days and weeks.”Fast forward, and here is the updated chart.SPX_VIX2Note that the VIX did break out of its wedge pattern (highlighted with the yellow circle) and as expected, the S&

Big-Tech’s PerformanceBig-tech’s earning week doesn’t seem nice to investors, though their earnings mostly beats, inline with strong Q3 US GDP.The positive news has been overshadowed by uncertainty, particularly with concerns that the economy may worsen in the first half of next year due to a high-interest-rate environment, led by high-yield US bonds. As of close of trading on October 26th, big-techs plunged a lot during past five trading days. The smallest decline was seen in $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , which had a gain after its financial report, with a drop of 1.04%, followed by $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ which did not release its financial report, with a decline of 4.22%, and $

$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$ released its financial report after the market closed. In addition to exceeding expectations in terms of current user numbers, revenue, and profit levels, the company expressed great confidence in doubling its full-year profit margin and mentioned multiple times the help of AI in the company's performance. A few days prior, $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ lso announced strong Q3 performance.PINS Q3 EarningsRevenue unexpectedly achieved double-digit growth of 11%, reaching $763 million, exceeding market expectations of $744 million.Adjusted EBITDA was $185 million, higher than the market's expected $135.1 million; net profit went from a loss of $65.2 million in the same period last year to a profi

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ continued its strong recovery in the Q3 earnings report, with its primarily advertising-based business. In addition, its extreme cost-cutting measures have resulted in operating profit margins reaching their highest level in 2021.The stock price initially surged by 5%after hours as a sign of respect, but then gave back all the gains and dropped an additional 3 points due to flat Q4 guidance and concerns about macroeconomic conditions, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This is likely to serve as a guide for the overall market trend in the next one or two quarters: low sensitivity to positive news and easily controlled by risk sentiment.SummaryAd revenue was stronger than expected, but investors were not sensit

The biggest highlight of $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Q3 earnings report released after the market on October 27th was the release of profits that exceeded expectations. As its consumer business showed higher-than-expected growth in an inflationary environment last quarter, the market naturally had high expectations for this part. Although the post-market shock had an element of expected management, it also reflected the market's divergence in response to the sell-off of major technology company earnings reports over the past few days.SummaryRetail sector's profits continued to rebound, supporting the release of large profits this quarter. The North American retail operating profit margin rose from 2.9% in Q2 to 3.9% in Q3, and international revenue growth

Market Recap | Tech Stocks Tumble, Pushing Nasdaq Lower A steep drop in shares of $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ , $Amazon.com(AMZN)$  and other technology companies dragged the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ into correction territory Wednesday. The tech-heavy index slid 2.4% in a punishing session that pulled it down more than 10% from its recent high. Its losses accelerated in the afternoon, sending the gauge to one of its worst one-day declines of the year. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 1.4%, closing at its lowest le

In the past two years, the rapid increase in benchmark interest rates has risen by 525 basis points, the fastest level since the 1980s. The more important question for investors to consider is whether the degree of Federal Reserve tightening is sufficient. By pushing up financing costs through policy interest rates, we can determine the degree of crowding out of incremental financing demand and erosion of stock interest costs. The purpose of monetary tightening is to suppress demand, mainly by raising policy interest rates to guide the overall financing costs of society to rise, thereby affecting new demand and stock costs: 1) financing costs are higher than investment returns, suppressing incremental financing demand; 2) stock interest pressure increases, squeezing out other consumption a

The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day November policy meeting on Wednesday, with broad expectations that the central bank will hold interest rates unchanged this time but potentially signal additional hikes ahead as it fights stubborn inflation. The Fed’s policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference will offer critical clues on the future path of rates. Markets widely anticipate the Fed maintaining its current target fed funds rate range of 5.25% to 5.50%, following four straight 0.75 percentage point increases. However, the Fed’s commitment to restoring price stability means further tightening can’t yet be ruled out with inflation still running hot. The policy decision will be announced at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. While rat

U.S. stocks moved higher Wednesday morning as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, set for release this afternoon. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 181 points, or 0.6%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.8%. Information technology stocks led the market higher, with semiconductor names like Advanced Micro Devices and Micron Technology surging on upbeat guidance. The rally came despite mixed economic data showing a contraction in manufacturing activity but a slight uptick in job openings in September. All eyes are on the Fed’s 2 p.m. policy statement, which is expected to maintain rates steady following four consecutive 0.75 percentage point hikes. Traders anticipate the Fed will signal plans to slow its a

Stock futures extended losses Wednesday evening after a brutal day of selling that saw the Nasdaq Composite notch its worst single-day drop since February. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures contracts declined 0.7% in after-hours trading. S&P 500 futures also retreated 0.3%, while Dow futures hovered just below the flatline. The moves follow a volatile regular trading session driven largely by a nearly 10% plunge in shares of Google-parent Alphabet. Alphabet posted disappointing third quarter earnings after the closing bell Tuesday, with revenue from its Google Cloud unit falling short of analyst estimates. The disappointing results from the tech titan exacerbated a market-wide selloff that saw the S&P 500 tumble 1.4% to close below the key 4,200 level for the first time since May.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ breadth is the most washed out it's been since the October lows. Monday was a nice bounce day on the index after three brutal sell-off days, but $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is still below its 200D moving average.From a monthly range, Aug, Sept, and Oct months have closed in red. Maybe very low chances that November will close in red?A few things to consider before we go and get bullish again:Could now be the reversal as we enter into November or was today a dead-cat bounce? Will upwards seasonality start to do its thing or continue to get crushed post-FOMC? Are funds done selling off for tax and rebalancing reasons?What’s your opinion? Do you have confidence in November? Welcome to Share the g