Alibaba: A Hold Till $150 or Take Profit After Super Boost?

Although food delivery is expected to weigh on profits, Alibaba delivered a positive surprise: the company has developed a new AI chip to fill the gap left by Nvidia in the Chinese market. The stock jumps 10%! FCF recorded a net outflow of RMB 18.815 billion, mainly reflecting increased spending on cloud infrastructure and investment in “Taobao Flash Sales.” ----------- Can AI become Alibaba’s next growth driver? Do you have confidence in Alibaba’s performance following this earnings report?

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09-02

🚨 Global Shockwaves: Tariffs Ruled Illegal, China’s AI Surge, SPX 6,500+ — My Full Trading Playbook This Week 🚀📊🔥

$Broadcom(AVGO)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ I’m not treating this as a routine week. What’s lining up between earnings, Fed reports, global trade rulings, and record highs is the type of setup that creates outsized opportunity if you’re prepared; and landmines if you’re not. 🌍 Macro Backdrop: A Market Balancing on Policy Shocks The $SPX has closed above 6,500 for the first time in history. Yet beneath the surface, risk is building. A US federal appeals court ruled most of Trump’s tariffs illegal, striking at the heart of his global trade policy. The ruling is paused until 14Oct, giving the White House time to appeal to the Supreme Court. That means tarif
🚨 Global Shockwaves: Tariffs Ruled Illegal, China’s AI Surge, SPX 6,500+ — My Full Trading Playbook This Week 🚀📊🔥

[Stock Prediction] Alibaba Earnings: Rally or Selloff?

Alibaba reports Q1 FY2026 earnings on August 29 after the U.S. market close. Wall Street expects revenue of RMB 253.4B (+4.2% YoY) and adjusted EPS of RMB 15.82 (-3.8% YoY). Will AI-driven cloud growth spark a rally, or will massive local-commerce subsidies weigh on profits? $Alibaba(BABA)$ $BABA-W(09988)$ 🔍 Key Things to WatchAlibaba Cloud revenue is expected to hit RMB 31.9B (+20% YoY), driven by rising AI demand. The company’s new Qwen3 model, AI-powered search tools, and broader product upgrades could keep Alibaba ahead of competitors.Taotian Group (China commerce) is projected to deliver RMB 121.7B (+7.3% YoY), supported by better promotions and improved consumer demand. International commerce stays
[Stock Prediction] Alibaba Earnings: Rally or Selloff?

CN Assets Select|08 A Comprehensive Breakdown of China’s Resource ETFs

Over the past two years, the stories of both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have revolved around one key phrase: pro-cyclical. Especially in commodities and resource-related equities, this phrase acts like a switch—once triggered by policy or the economic cycle, the market tends to surge swiftly and fiercely. Recently, market attention has again shifted to China’s resource sectors: steel, copper & aluminum, and rare earths, all riding on policy stimulus and a global price rebound.But why should we care about these “iron lumps” and “piles of ore”? Because they are not just cold raw materials—they represent China’s confidence in breaking free from economic “involution.” Steel fuels infrastructure, copper & aluminum are the “lifeblood” of new energy vehicles, and rare earths are the “v
CN Assets Select|08 A Comprehensive Breakdown of China’s Resource ETFs

CN Assets Pick|07 China’s High-Dividend Stocks: Don’t Miss These High-Yield ETFs

The spotlight is heating up right next to you in China’s asset market!A-shares are on fire: The Shanghai Composite Index has hit a 10-year high — breaking above 3,800 points, its highest closing level since 2015, sparking strong market excitement.A-share market cap hits a milestone: On the same day, the total market cap of A-shares surpassed the 100 trillion RMB mark for the first time ever. Behind this record are surging margin financing balances and booming investor participation.Money is pouring in: Trading volume soared to about 2.8 trillion RMB, with both institutions and retail investors driving liquidity.These signals tell us one thing: investment sentiment is strong, capital is favoring equities, and the appeal of high-dividend ETFs is climbing fast. So let’s break it down in plain
CN Assets Pick|07 China’s High-Dividend Stocks: Don’t Miss These High-Yield ETFs

Alibaba’s Stock Price Surge is Unlikely to Remain

China's e-commerce and tech giant Alibaba (ticker: $Alibaba(BABA)$) – officially known as "Alibaba Group Holding Limited" – witnessed a price surge after it released the earnings results for the first quarter (Q1) for its Fiscal Year (FY) 2026. The price surge was mostly attributed to its advances in capturing AI spends.  This surge might be somewhat overstating the advances made by the company.  Trend Drilldown In 2023, the company's management moved to consolidate into six distinct entities that could possibly be spun out into six separate companies/tickers. While the logistics arm – Cainiao – worked on an IPO since, the plan was dropped early in 2024. In Q1 2026, the “6 entities” plan has been effectively dissolved.  As of FY 202
Alibaba’s Stock Price Surge is Unlikely to Remain
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08-29

Low FCF But Alibaba Unveils New AI Chip: Your PT For BABA is?

$Alibaba(BABA)$ Alibaba’s Q2 2025 earnings revealed a mixed bag, with revenue at RMB 247.652 billion (up 5.8% YoY but below the RMB 253.17 billion estimate) and a net FCF outflow of RMB 18.815 billion, driven by heavy investments in cloud infrastructure and Taobao Flash Sales. The surprise highlight: a new AI chip designed to fill the Nvidia gap in China, potentially powering its cloud and e-commerce segments. With the S&P 500 at 6,512.34, Nasdaq at 21,918.45, and Bitcoin at $123,456, the VIX at 14.12 reflects calm amid tariffs (30-35% on Canada/EU/Mexico) and oil at $74.50/barrel. Alibaba's shares dipped 1.2% to $121.30, but the AI chip news has investors rethinking its valuation at 16.05x forward P/E. Can AI become Alibaba’s next growth engi
Low FCF But Alibaba Unveils New AI Chip: Your PT For BABA is?
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08-26

Singapore Listed Companies: Featuring Alibaba SDR (HBBD.SI)

🌟🌟🌟As Singapore celebrates SG60, marking 6 decades of independence, ingenuity and identity, I am launching a personal tribute to this milestone with a series of articles spotlighting the most compelling companies listed on the SGX. If you are inspired to take part in this journey, there is no better time.  $Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ is celebrating SG60 with a special promotion - from now until October 17, enjoy zero commission, zero custodian fees and stand a chance to win attractive prizes as you invest in Singapore's future.  It is a timely opportunity to align your portfolio with the spirit of SG60. Alibaba and SG60: 2 Stories of Resilience, Reinvention and the Power of Belief As Singapore celebrates SG60 - A milestone of grit, growt
Singapore Listed Companies: Featuring Alibaba SDR (HBBD.SI)

From Cash Burn to Chip Power: Is Alibaba a Buy-and-Hold to $150?

$Alibaba(BABA)$ Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA) has long been regarded as one of China’s most important technology conglomerates, but over the last several years, the company’s reputation with investors has been tested. From Beijing’s regulatory crackdowns to intensifying domestic competition and U.S. geopolitical restrictions, Alibaba has faced challenges that reshaped how global markets view the stock. Now, in 2025, the company is trying to write its next chapter. The latest earnings report contained one particularly notable development: Alibaba unveiled a new artificial intelligence chip designed to help fill the vacuum left by U.S. export restrictions on Nvidia’s high-end GPUs. The announcement triggered immediate investor enthusiasm, sending the s
From Cash Burn to Chip Power: Is Alibaba a Buy-and-Hold to $150?
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08-27

Meituan’s 90% Profit Plunge: Will Alibaba Survive the Delivery War Storm?

Meituan’s latest earnings reveal a staggering 90% dive in adjusted net profit to RMB 1.49 billion in Q2 2025, well below the RMB 9.85 billion consensus, as the food delivery price war with Alibaba and JD.com tightens its grip. Alibaba, gearing up for its August 29 earnings, faces market expectations of RMB 266 billion revenue (up 9.4% year-over-year) but a concerning 21.7% drop in adjusted EBITA to RMB 35.3 billion, hinting at delivery war pressures. With the S&P 500 at 6,512.34, Nasdaq at 21,918.45, and Bitcoin at $123,456, the global market pulses with optimism, though tariffs (30% on EU/Mexico, 35% on Canada) and oil at $74.50/barrel stir caution. The VIX at 14.12 reflects calm, but Meituan’s 22.7x forward P/E and Alibaba’s 16.05x signal divergent valuations. Will the delivery war e
Meituan’s 90% Profit Plunge: Will Alibaba Survive the Delivery War Storm?
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08-27

Alibaba Earnings Face-Off: Food Delivery War or AI Capex to Drive the Surge?

$Alibaba(BABA)$ Alibaba Group is on the brink of its Q2 2025 earnings release on August 29, 2025, with market eyes locked on whether its food delivery battles or AI infrastructure investments will steer the stock higher. Analysts forecast revenue of RMB 266 billion (+9.4% YoY), driven by e-commerce and cloud growth, but adjusted EBITA of RMB 35.3 billion (-21.7% YoY) reflects heavy capex in AI amid competition from Pinduoduo and ByteDance's Ele.me. With the S&P 500 at 6,466.58, Bitcoin at $115,000, and oil at $75/barrel under 30-35% tariffs, the VIX at 14.49 signals calm, but Alibaba's RSI at 55 suggests room for movement. Is Alibaba a superior long-term hold? Will the food delivery war erode profits? Has PDD's risk evaporated post-management'
Alibaba Earnings Face-Off: Food Delivery War or AI Capex to Drive the Surge?

Bullish Market Rally Meets Bearish Fundamentals: China Treads a Fine Line

Market Snapshot Shanghai Composite just closed at a decade-high of ~3,771 the strongest since August 2015 The CSI 300 edged up ~0.4%, buoyed by fintech and stablecoin-related shares amid early approvals for yuan-backed stablecoins Driving Forces Policy tailwinds: Expectations of stimulus and easing U.S.–China tensions are tipping investor sentiment Retail surge: Domestic inflows are growing, aided by low bond yields, property-sector frustrations, and attractive valuations Dividend culture shift: Beijing is pushing dividends and share buybacks to boost investor confidence dividend yields are now near 3%, highest since 2016 Warning signs linger: retail sales and fixed-asset investment are lagging, real estate remains frozen, and credit growth is weak. Meanwhile, Bridgewater liquidated its ~$
Bullish Market Rally Meets Bearish Fundamentals: China Treads a Fine Line

⚠️Core Business Implosion: Meituan Q2 Worse Than Targets, Competition Spirals

$MEITUAN-W(03690)$ Q2 2025 results still surprised a market that had already braced for pessimism. On the surface, the recent slump in the stock price already hinted at investors' simmering discontent, as they waited for management to address the situation.Q2 revenue saw double-digit growth but still fell short of market expectations; on the profit side, the company lagged significantly due to cutthroat competition, with operating efficiency deteriorating sharply and falling far below analysts' already-revised pessimistic forecasts. The subsidy war in the food delivery battle has spread across the board, forcing the core local services business to "self-deplete" its competitive moat. While management emphasizes long-term strategy and platform eco
⚠️Core Business Implosion: Meituan Q2 Worse Than Targets, Competition Spirals

💰A Share & HK Market in Full Bloom: One Stop to Nice Tickers?

A-shares hit a nearly 10-year high. As of August 22, the $SSE Comp(000001.SH)$ closed at 3825.76 points, up 1.45%.Previously, on August 19, the $SSE Comp(000001.SH)$ reached an intraday high of 3746.67 points, breaking the closing record since the 2015 bull market.From April 8 to August 19, the Shanghai Composite Index, $SZSE Comp(399001)$ Shenzhen Component Index, and $ChiNext(399006)$ ChiNext Index rose by 25%, 32%, and 52%, respectively. Trading volume and margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan for six consecutive days, a record high.Meanwhile, the HKEX market
💰A Share & HK Market in Full Bloom: One Stop to Nice Tickers?
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08-28
📉 Meituan’s 90% Profit Plunge! Can Alibaba Survive the Food Delivery War? Meituan just shocked the market with a staggering 90% year-on-year profit collapse in Q2. The stock slid sharply, and investors are scrambling to figure out whether this is a one-off stumble or a structural warning for China’s platform economy. At the heart of the drama? China’s food delivery war. Aggressive subsidies, slowing consumer spending, and rising competition are squeezing margins for even the biggest names. With Alibaba’s Ele.me directly in the line of fire, this isn’t just Meituan’s problem — it’s a test of whether anyone can make money in China’s hyper-competitive online-to-offline (O2O) market. --- ⚔️ The Food Delivery Battlefield Food delivery is one of the most visible consumer-facing industries in Chi
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08-23

13x Forward PE: Consumer Recovery Ignites Alibaba and Pinduoduo Earnings?

The spotlight shines on Alibaba Group (BABA) and Pinduoduo (PDD) as they gear up for Q2 2025 earnings, with Pinduoduo reporting on August 25 and Alibaba on August 29, amid a 3.7% U.S. CPI rise and a 64% Fed rate cut probability. Alibaba’s expected revenue of RMB 266 billion (+9.4% YoY) and adjusted EBITA of RMB 35.3 billion (-21.7% YoY) reflect cautious growth, while Pinduoduo’s projected $14.36 billion revenue (+7.5% YoY) and EPS drop of 36.4% highlight profitability pressures. Both trade at attractive valuations—Alibaba at 16.05x forward P/E and Pinduoduo at 13.56x—amid a consumer recovery, with U.S. retail sales up 0.3% in July. This deep dive explores the earnings outlook, consumer trends, and strategies to bet on their potential breakout. Earnings Outlook: Growth Amid Challenges Aliba
13x Forward PE: Consumer Recovery Ignites Alibaba and Pinduoduo Earnings?

Cautious Recovery And Rational Consumption Might Boost PDD Earnings More Than BABA

If you have been following the news on Chinese consumers, we have not been seeing a very strong recovery to the previous spending level. So whether the consumer spending might boost $Alibaba(BABA)$ or $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ earnings, we might want to look at the sentiment and trends. In this article, I would be sharing what I have found on the consumer spending sentiment, key trends, and how consumer sentiment could affect both these two stocks, Alibaba and Pinduoduo. The State of Chinese Consumer Spending Sentiment Chinese consumer spending sentiment in 2025 has been characterized by a "cautious recovery." While there are signs of stabilization and a return to growth, a key theme is that consumers are be
Cautious Recovery And Rational Consumption Might Boost PDD Earnings More Than BABA

CN Assets Pick|04 Hong Kong ETFs in Full Bloom: Have You Picked the Right Theme?

In the second half of 2025, Hong Kong’s capital market is embracing a brand-new “spring.” It’s not just about the IPO pipeline gearing up or HKEX delivering record profits—what’s more important is the surging southbound capital from A-shares, which has rapidly fueled the ETF market’s momentum, turning it from a niche corner into the spotlight.According to HKEX’s latest interim results, profits for the first half of 2025 soared nearly 40% to a record HK$8.52 billion, with average daily stock turnover reaching HK$222.8 billion and Stock Connect flows hitting new highs. Particularly striking is the surge of southbound inflows into ETFs: daily ETF turnover climbed to HK$33.8 billion, a jump of nearly 184%, significantly boosting both liquidity and valuations across the ETF market.So far this y
CN Assets Pick|04 Hong Kong ETFs in Full Bloom: Have You Picked the Right Theme?

China’s Food Delivery War Heats Up: Meituan Stumbles, Alibaba on Deck

$MEITUAN-W(03690)$ China’s consumer internet space has long been defined by bruising competition, subsidy-driven battles, and shifting consumer preferences. But even in such a dynamic environment, the magnitude of Meituan’s latest earnings collapse stunned markets. A 90% plunge in adjusted net profit, far below consensus expectations, reignited investor debate about whether food delivery is destined to remain a low-margin, cash-burning battlefield. The disappointment also comes just as Alibaba prepares to release its latest quarterly earnings, with many questioning whether the delivery war will spill into its broader e-commerce operations. Meanwhile, Pinduoduo’s (PDD) signals of strategic moderation raise fresh questions about competitive balance
China’s Food Delivery War Heats Up: Meituan Stumbles, Alibaba on Deck
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08-24
📊 13x Forward PE! PDD or BABA: Which Will Lead the Consumer Rally? Chinese tech earnings are back in focus, and two giants — Alibaba ($Alibaba(BABA)$  ) and Pinduoduo ($PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$  ) — are about to face the market. On the surface, their valuations look similar: Alibaba trades at ~16x forward PE, PDD at ~13.5x. But when you look deeper, investor sentiment couldn’t be more different. BABA feels like the undervalued veteran; PDD feels like the hot hand. The market has already picked a favourite — but should you? --- 💡 China’s Consumer Recovery: Who Benefits Most? The backdrop matters. China’s consumer recovery is still fragile, but there are green shoots: restaurant sales up, l

PDD’s Gains Retreat: Is Alibaba Still a Promising Bet?

$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ The battle for dominance in China’s e-commerce market has been nothing short of dramatic. Over the past year, Pinduoduo (PDD) emerged as the clear growth champion, outpacing long-time giant Alibaba (BABA) with its aggressive pricing strategies and global expansion through Temu. Investors poured in, sending PDD’s shares to new highs. But the tide is turning. Following its latest earnings release, Pinduoduo executives admitted that current profit levels are not sustainable, signaling that earnings will fluctuate sharply in upcoming quarters. That single line from management was enough to rattle markets: the stock quickly retreated to $130, shaving billions off its market cap. Meanwhile, Alibaba is preparing to release its resu
PDD’s Gains Retreat: Is Alibaba Still a Promising Bet?