Market Turnaround! Is the Crisis Over?

After another black monday overnight trading, us stocks closed up as trump taco. Is the crisis over? Have you bought the dip?

avatarKYHBKO
35 minutes ago

(Full Article) Preview of the week - 01Jun2026

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 01Jun2026) The following sections outline key macroeconomic forecasts and indicators spanning manufacturing, services, labor markets, and energy sectors, with particular emphasis on metrics influencing upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions. 1. Manufacturing Sector Indicators S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May): The forecast is projected at 55.3, indicating continued expansion and growth within global manufacturing. ISM Manufacturing PMI (May): The index is forecasted at 53.3, signalling anticipated growth within the domestic American manufacturing sector. ISM Manufacturing Prices (May): A significant point of concern is the high forecast of 85.3. This elevated metric indicates rising producer costs, which are highly likely to be
(Full Article) Preview of the week - 01Jun2026
avatarTBI
05-27

[49] COP, DHI, RTX

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit
[49] COP, DHI, RTX
avatarJC888
05-26

US Market soars on last week of May 2026 ?

For the whole of last week, there were a handful of US economic reports out. I half suspect that they did not make any meaningful impact on the US market. This is because, even the increasing negative CPI inflation report, hardly dented the US market, the week before when it was released. Click here ! for more details, give a “Like” or “Repost” ok. Thanks. Reports out last week’s include: 19 May 2026 - Pending Home Sales. 20 May 2025 - Minutes of Fed’s FOMC  21 May 2026 - US jobless claims. 21 May 2026 - S&P Flash US services PMI. 21 May 2026 - S&P Flash US manufacturing PMI 22 May 2026 - US Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). 22 May 2026 - US Consumer Sentiments (Final) for May 2026 Pending Home Sales. Ac
US Market soars on last week of May 2026 ?
avatarKYHBKO
05-26

(part 5 of 5) - my investing muse (25May2026)

My Investing Muse (25May2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Bosch is slashing 22,000 jobs in Germany and slowly abandoning its own homeland just to survive. Germany lost 486,000 jobs in just 3 months, mostly in industry. The “economic miracle” is dying in real time. - X user Global Dissident Goldman Sachs warned that AI could impact 300 million jobs globally. Many laughed it off. Now, companies are cutting thousands of roles while openly blaming AI, even as they post record profits. Meta just laid off 8,000 people while pouring over $100B into AI this year alone. And we’re still in the 1st inning. - Source: Goldman Sachs Meta cut 8,000 people today. A survivor wrote about a teammate who slept 4 hours a night for months. Commits at 3am. Commits at 6am. IC4. Strong reviews. No PIP. Cut
(part 5 of 5) - my investing muse (25May2026)
avatarKYHBKO
05-26

(part 4 of 5) news and my thoughts (25May2026)

News and my thoughts from the past week (25May2026) Starbucks is retiring its AI inventory system across North America after the tool reportedly miscounted and mislabeled store inventory. - X user Unusual Whales @TigerStars $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$
(part 4 of 5) news and my thoughts (25May2026)
avatarKYHBKO
05-26

(Part 3 of 5) S&P500 weekly outlook (25May2026)

Market Outlook of S&P500 (25May2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 has completed a top crossover and has started a downtrend. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.25, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages The e
(Part 3 of 5) S&P500 weekly outlook (25May2026)
avatarKYHBKO
05-26

(Part 1 of 5) - Economic Calendar (25May20026)

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 25May2026) Market Holidays Hong Kong will be closed on 25 May in observance of Buddha’s Birthday. The United States will also be closed on Monday for Memorial Day. In addition, Singapore will be closed on 27 May for Hari Raya Haji. Inflation and Consumer Sentiment The Conference Board’s consumer confidence reading for May is due, with consensus expectations at 91.9. This would represent a decline from the previous reading and may point to softer consumer sentiment. Markets will be watching the Core PCE Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measurement of inflation. As a key input into interest-rate expectations, this release could have a meaningful impact on market direction and volatility. Growth and Business Activity US first-q
(Part 1 of 5) - Economic Calendar (25May20026)
avatarJC888
04-27

US Market ruled by Earnings not Reports.

Last week (week ending 24 Apr 2026), there weren’t significant US economic reports to leave a mark on the US market. As a result, US listed companies quarterly earnings hogged the limelight, notably $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ and $Intel(INTC)$. Still, the reports out last week included: Tue, 21 Apr 2026 - US retail sales for March 2026. Thu, 23 Apr 2026 - US jobless claims - weekly and continuing. Thu, 23 Apr 2026 - S&P Flash US services & manufacturing PMI for April 2026 (preliminary). Fri, 24 Apr 2026 - Consumer sentiments (final) for April 2026. US Retail sales. US Census Bureau’s Retail sales report for March 2026, released on 21 Apr 2026, provides a complex snapshot of a consumer base that is resil
US Market ruled by Earnings not Reports.
The Market is Bleeding. Premiums Are Not. Let me share what I've been doing this week. SPY down almost 10% from ATH. VIX spiked past 30. Iran war headlines dropping every day, oil at $107, and the fear is real — I get it, it's been a rough few weeks for a lot of people. But here's the thing. If you've been running a wheel strategy through all this, the premium collection has been quietly doing its job in the background. Higher VIX means fatter premiums. More fear means more people paying up for protection. And all of that flows to the seller. The market is bleeding. The premiums are not. You don't need to call the direction perfectly. You just need a strategy that keeps paying you while you wait for the dust to settle. That's the whole idea behind the wheel — and this kind of environment i

Is the sharp drop in Japanese equities a buying opportunity?

On March 30, Japanese equities weakened significantly. The Nikkei 225 Index closed down 2.79%, with deeper losses seen intraday, while the Topix Index also declined by around 2.9%. The market structure was highly concentrated, with heavyweight technology stocks dragging down the index. Advantest fell 5.19%, SoftBank Group dropped 6.31%, TDK declined 4.42%, Fanuc fell 4.22%, and Tokyo Electron also moved lower. These companies are concentrated in semiconductor equipment, electronic components, and automation, forming the core growth segment of the Japanese market. Due to the high concentration of weights, technology stocks had an outsized impact on the index. Advantest accounts for more than 12%, SoftBank over 5%, while TDK and Fanuc both exceed 2%. When these stocks correct simultaneously,
Is the sharp drop in Japanese equities a buying opportunity?
avatarKYHBKO
03-19

The Private Credit Fallout (thanks to Grok)

Banks have ~$300B+ in loans to private credit funds (Moody's, mid-2025 data), with JPM marking some down amid software strains. Insurers average 35% US portfolio exposure for yields (IMF/Moody's). Interconnections raise contagion risk if defaults spike (UBS downside: 15% on AI/software hits), but it's not systemic meltdown—regulators watching, many exposures managed. Gulf SWFs hit first per that article; banks/insurers next in line but buffered. Known: US banks' loans to private credit funds hit ~$300B as of June 2025 (Moody's/Fed data), plus $285B to PE & $340B unused commitments—part of $1.2T+ to non-bank lenders. PC "lends back" via synthetic risk transfers, partnerships (e.g. Citi-Apollo), & buying bank debt/securitisations. Unknown: Granular counterparty details, off-balance-s
The Private Credit Fallout (thanks to Grok)

Market Picks: Dot Plot "1 Cut" Distribution + Oil $110 Breakout + Yen 2-Year Low

Comment, Retweet & Win Tiger Coins! [Call][USD][USD] Hey traders! Today’s X (Twitter) feed is blowing up with game-changing charts—from the Fed’s dot plot shift to oil’s historic rally and the yen’s collapse. We’ve rounded up the TOP 10 must-see financial charts, with clear explanations to help you decode market trends. Join the discussion, share your take, and earn easy Tiger Coins! Top 10 Must-See Financial Charts on X (Twitter) Today Fed Dot Plot Distribution Change (Source: @MacroMicroMe) Chart Explanation: Comparing the December 2025 and March 2026 dot plots, most officials have shifted from 2 rate cuts to just 1. Oil Price Monthly Gain (Source: @GoodReturns) Chart Explanation: Brent crude has surged 43.6% in March, jumping from $77 to $110—a new high for the biggest monthly gain
Market Picks: Dot Plot "1 Cut" Distribution + Oil $110 Breakout + Yen 2-Year Low
From 2006 to today in 2026, the weight of pure value stocks has shrunk sharply from 26% to 11%, while the weight of pure growth stocks including the tech seven (Mag 7) has skyrocketed to 46%! The S&P 500 Index has essentially become a 'growth stock carrier' highly bound with AI capital expenditure and tech giants' profitability. As long as the AI capital expenditure cycle is still there, the profits of the tech giants can offset the recession of the traditional industry under inflation.
avatarKYHBKO
03-16

(Part 5 of 5) - My investing muse

My Investing Muse Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Americans are leaving the U.S. in record numbers, drawn by a quality of life made easily affordable by the U.S.’s enviable salaries. - WSJ Meta layoffs could reportedly impact around 16,000 employees - MacroEdge Amazon made 2,847 engineers spend 8 months documenting every code pattern, every debugging workflow, every optimisation trick they'd learned over the years. Then fed it all to AI. Then, they fired them. No one saw it coming. The entire thing was disguised as something every senior engineer already does. Knowledge transfer. Best practices. Internal documentation. They were writing their own replacement manual. And the same playbook is running at every major tech company right now. - X user Srishti TotalEnergies: production shutti
(Part 5 of 5) - My investing muse
avatarKYHBKO
03-16

(Part 1 of 5) Economic Review (16Mar2026)

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 16Mar2026) Inflation Insights One key indicator for forecasting inflation trends is the Producer Price Index (PPI). For February, the PPI is expected to rise by 0.3%. This index is particularly valuable because increases in producer-level prices often translate into higher costs for consumers over time, helping us anticipate changes in consumer inflation. Crude Oil Inventory and Consumption Crude oil inventory serves as another important tool for predicting shifts in consumer behavior. Oil producers adjust their output based on anticipated demand, making inventory levels a useful gauge of overall economic consumption. Monitoring these figures can provide insights into the health of the broader economy. Upcoming Federal Reserve Decision The most
(Part 1 of 5) Economic Review (16Mar2026)
avatarKYHBKO
03-13

Which banks and private credit deny withdrawals (13Mar2026)

Summary of Financial Institutions Restricting Withdrawals in Private Credit As of March 13, 2026, several major players in the $1.8-2 trillion private credit industry have imposed restrictions on investor redemptions or related lending amid surging withdrawal requests, driven by concerns over liquidity mismatches, credit quality in sectors like software, and market dislocation. These measures primarily affect private credit funds rather than standard bank accounts, with no widespread bank run confirmed.  Key institutions include: BlackRock: Capped withdrawals at 5% for its $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund after requests reached 9.3% ($1.2 billion), fulfilling only $620 million. bloomberg.com Morgan Stanley: Limited redemptions to 5% for its $7.6-8 billion North Haven Private Inc
Which banks and private credit deny withdrawals (13Mar2026)
## Market Turnaround: Is the Crisis Over? The global market has been experiencing a rollercoaster ride, with investors wondering if the crisis is finally over. The S&P 500 Index has shown signs of resilience, with a current price of 6706.80, up from its 52-week low of 4812.20 ¹. ### Key Factors Influencing the Market - *Private Credit Market Concerns*: Robert Kiyosaki warns of a potential market crash in 2026, citing risks in the private credit sector, particularly involving BlackRock's private credit fund. - *Geopolitical Tensions*: The escalating war in the Middle East has investors questioning some of 2026's most popular trades and themes, with global equities slumping and the dollar jumping. - *Economic Indicators*: The US economy remains strong, with corporate profits trending pos