Last week, investors were taken by surprise by Goldman Sachs’ bleak S&P 500 outlook. Goldman Sachs expects only a 3% annual return for the S&P 500 over the next 10 years. In comparison, the S&P 500 has boasted a 14% annualized return over the past decade. JP Morgan, on the other hand, expects a 5.7% annual return over the next 10 years. Both firms cited high valuations and high concentration as the main reasons for future tepid returns. Goldman noted that the S&P 500 is now overly reliant on a few companies (e.g., the Magnificent Seven) for outsized return contributions, making it extremely difficult for any firm to maintain high levels of sales growth and profit margins over sustained periods. However, Goldman also acknowledged that its model has failed on multiple occasio
Tiger_James OoiTiger Staff
Tiger Certification: Tiger Brokers Market Strategist in Singapore.
9Follow
1603Followers
0Topic
0Badge
US Market Insights (18-22 Nov): Will Nvidia Save the Day?
The $.SPX(.SPX)$ and $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ returned -2.05% and -3.41%, respectively, last week.Major market movers last week included: $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ (-24%), $Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ (-21%), $AbbVie(ABBV)$ (-17%), $Micron Technology(MU)$ (-13%), $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ (-12%), $Walt Disney(DIS)$ (+16%), $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ (+12%), $Tapestry Inc.(TPR)
US Market Insights (18-22 Nov): Will Nvidia Save the Day?
James Ooi: Tech Rallied on Trump’s Win: Here’s Why
Key Insights:Trump is likely to prioritize supporting the tech industry to strengthen the U.S.'s competitive edge and preserve its position as the global technological leader.A key focus for the incoming Trump administration will likely be securing American dominance in the global AI race, with particular emphasis on outpacing China.While antitrust lawsuits may continue to dampen investor sentiment, these legal battles are expected to drag on for years due to prolonged appeals.If Trump implements tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese imports, it could provoke retaliatory measures from China, potentially targeting U.S. companies that manufacture there.I remain constructive on tech companies, especially those involved in AI. Big tech companies that are involved in antitrust lawsuits, pursu
James Ooi: Tech Rallied on Trump’s Win: Here’s Why
What You Need to Know About the US Presidential Election?
US betting sites currently show different forecasts: Polymarket: Trump wins the presidency, Republicans win the Senate, Democrats win the House. PredictIt: Harris wins the presidency, Republicans win the Senate, Democrats win the House. Trump vs. Harris: The US presidential election will be decided by the Electoral College. Kamala Harris, 60, the Democratic nominee, or Donald Trump, 78, the Republican nominee, needs to win 270 electoral votes to secure the presidency. Senate: The U.S. Senate currently comprises 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans, with Democrats in control. 34 out of 100 seats (one-third of the Senate) are up for election. Of these, Democrats and allied Independents hold 23 seats, while Republicans hold 11. Some analysts predict that Republicans are likely to win
US Market Insights & Strategies (4-7 Nov): All Eyes on US Elections
The $.SPX(.SPX)$ and $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ returned -1.35% and -1.55% last week, respectively.Major market movers include $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ (-4.34%), $Microsoft(MSFT)$ (-4.15%), $Apple(AAPL)$ (-3.67%), $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ (-8.26%), $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ (-7.51%), $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ (+5.38%), $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ (+3.64%), $Visa(V)$ (+3.20%), $
US Market Insights & Strategies (4-7 Nov): All Eyes on US Elections
Chip Area Special| If You Missed Nvidia, Don’t Overlook These Custom Chip Makers!
Key InsightsThe AI inferencing market is smaller than the AI training market, but it remains an exciting growth area for investors.I am constructive nearly all the players in the custom chip market, including $Broadcom(AVGO)$ , $ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ , $Microsoft(MSFT)$ , $Alphabet(GOOG)$ , $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ and $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ While Nvidia is expected to dominate the AI training market with over 90% market share in the coming years, I believe the AI inferencing market will be largely captured by hyperscalers,
Chip Area Special| If You Missed Nvidia, Don’t Overlook These Custom Chip Makers!
Goldman Warns the Party Is Over, Forecasts Just a 3% Annual Return for the S&P 500 Over the Next 10 Years
Goldman Warns the Party Is Over, Forecasts Just a 3% Annual Return for the S&P 500 Over the Next 10 Years
The TLT ETF Has Crashed 9% from Its Recent High. Here’s Why.
Despite the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ( $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ ) seeing a net inflow of $1.868 billion in October, the ETF has declined 1.84% so far this month.While Fed rate cuts over the next year should trigger a bond market rally, the TLT has dropped approximately 9% since the Fed cut rates during the September FOMC meeting.Source: Bloomberg, 27 Oct 2024Trump Win Raises Inflation Risks:Traders are now pricing in higher odds of a Trump victory, which could lead to soaring inflation due to his expansionary and trade policies. Consequently, FOMC rates may remain elevated for longer than expected. Soft Landing/No Landing:Economic data, including labor market metrics, retail sales, and PMI, indicate that the US econo
The TLT ETF Has Crashed 9% from Its Recent High. Here’s Why.
4 Tech Stocks to Watch Closely:TSLA, ARM, NVDA, TSM
Here’s a recap of the weekly gains and key highlights for the top stocks that were in focus last week.Tesla $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ (+21.97%)Tesla's stock rose 21.97% last week on earnings beat.However, its year-to-date return of 8.33% remains the worst among the Magnificent Seven.While the earnings surprise is encouraging, it is not a game-changer; the main investment thesis is that Tesla will launch new car models in the first half of 2025.Currently, Tesla is my least favorite stock among the Magnificent Seven. I believe much of the optimism is already priced in, and there will be better accumulation opportunities ahead.ARM $ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ (-6.06%)ARM's stock fell 6%
4 Tech Stocks to Watch Closely:TSLA, ARM, NVDA, TSM
U.S. Presidential Election: What Does It Mean for Stocks?
The Impact of Different Possible U.S. Presidential Election Outcomes:1) While Trump and Harris’s policies differ widely, they would not significantly affect the stock market in the event of a split Congress.Regardless of the U.S. presidential election outcome, extreme policies that could disrupt the business cycle and change the trajectory of the economy are less likely to be enacted in the case of a split Congress, such as when the House is controlled by Democrats and the Senate by Republicans.As a result, the U.S. stock market could rise further after the election if a split Congress occurs.Some investors argue that Trump’s plan will stoke inflation risk. However, I reckon investors would priced in a stronger economy and corporate earnings under trump and would have worried inflation ris
U.S. Presidential Election: What Does It Mean for Stocks?
US Market Insights (21- 25 Oct): Potential Trump Sweep Drives Stocks Higher
The $.SPX(.SPX)$ and $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ returned 0.87% and 0.26%, respectively, last week.Major market movers included $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ (-2.28%), $UnitedHealth(UNH)$ (-4.76%), $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ (-7.1%), $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ (-9.1%), $Lam Research(LRCX)$ (-12.12%), $Apple(AAPL)$ (+3.2%), $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ (+2.37%), $Visa(V)$ (+4.6%),
US Market Insights (21- 25 Oct): Potential Trump Sweep Drives Stocks Higher
Low Leverage Suggests China and HK Stock Market Has Room to Grow
The outstanding balance of margin trading in China is still 17.5% lower than its 2021 peak, and margin as a percentage of market capitalization is relatively low at 1.8%. This suggests that the market is not overheating, contrary to what some investors may believe.Typically, margin trading is highly correlated with the China equity market. The equity market tends to rise with increased margin trading activity, often peaking simultaneously. As of October 14, the total outstanding balance of margin trading in China has increased to 1.587 trillion yuan, which is still about 17.5% lower than its 2021 high of 1.9 trillion yuan.Currently, outstanding margin trading accounts for approximately 1.8% of the total market capitalization of China stocks. However, this level remains relatively healthy c
Low Leverage Suggests China and HK Stock Market Has Room to Grow
China's Market Frenzy: How Much Higher Can the Hang Seng Index Go?
What happened:While China is rolling out stimulus measures to revive the mainland economy, both investors and analysts have expressed disappointment over the lack of details and the limited size of the stimulus.Some analysts and economists expect a fiscal package of 2-3 trillion yuan. I believe that any amount lower than 2 trillion yuan may not be sufficient to sustain the rally.The $HSI(HSI)$ has corrected by 10%, falling from 23,099 on October 7 to 20,804 as of 1 p.m. on October 15. What’s Next:The $HSI(HSI)$ may trade sideways until after the U.S. presidential election on November 5, as I anticipate that any large-scale measures might be delayed until then.The Chinese government could be holding bac
China's Market Frenzy: How Much Higher Can the Hang Seng Index Go?
US Market Insights (14-18 Oct): 3Q2024 Earnings Season Begins
The $.SPX(.SPX)$ and $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ returned 1.13% and 1.19%, respectively, last week.Major market movers include $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ (+7.91%), $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ (+5.06%), $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ (+5.24%), $Uber(UBER)$ (+16.24%), $Wells Fargo(WFC)$ (+7.08%), $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ (-12.91%), $Alphabet(GOOG)$ (-2.29%), $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ (-1.01%),
US Market Insights (14-18 Oct): 3Q2024 Earnings Season Begins
US Market Insights (7-11 Oct): CPI Set to Test the Market
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 edged up 0.26% and 0.15%, respectively, last week. Major market movers included Microsoft $Microsoft(MSFT)$ (-2.79%), Tesla $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ (-3.99%), P&G (-2.69%), Nike $Nike(NKE)$ (-8.04%), Nvidia $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ (+2.9%), Meta (+5.04%), Exxon (+7.78%), ConocoPhillips (+9.38%), and Salesforce (+4.02%). Key economic events this week include the FOMC minutes and CPI (Thursday), and PPI (Friday). Important earnings reports this week feature Pepsi on Tuesday, Delta on Thursday, and JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock on Friday. Things You Should Know Before Starting Your Week
US Market Insights (7-11 Oct): CPI Set to Test the Market
S&P 500 Returns >20% Through Q3: What’s Next?
The S&P 500 $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ $iShares Core S&P 500 ETF(IVV)$ has gained 22% through the first three quarters of this year. Historically, there have been 24 instances where the index posted gains of 20% or more by the end of Q3: 87.5% of the time, the S&P 500 delivered positive returns in Q4. The average Q4 return was 4.1%. Since 1943, in years with gains of over 20% through Q3, the S&P 500 typically finds its bottom around October 27, with an average drawdown of -2.12%, followed by a rally through December. Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers, 1 Oct 2024 Conclusion: I remain skeptical of an October
S&P 500 Returns >20% Through Q3: What’s Next?
US Market Insights (30 Sep – 4 Oct): All Eyes on Labor Market
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rose 0.64% and 1.1%, respectively, last week. Major stock movers: Nvidia (+4.66%), Tesla (+9.32%), Micron (+18.26%), AMD (+5.39%), Caterpillar (+6.04%), Microsoft (-1.67%), Eli Lilly (-4.74%), Amazon (-1.89%), Visa (-3.37%). Key economic data this week: Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings (Tuesday), ADP Non-farm Employment Change (Wednesday), Unemployment Claims and Service PMI (Thursday), and Non-Farm Payroll (Friday). Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at an economic conference on Monday. Things you should know before starting the week: 1) Micron Earnings Beat Sent AI Stocks Higher Last Week Both Q4 2024 earnings results and the Q1 2025 outlook exceeded expectations, indicating strong AI demand moving forward. Micron's earnings often set the tone fo
US Market Insights (30 Sep – 4 Oct): All Eyes on Labor Market
How much higher can the Hang Seng Index go amid hefty China stimulus?
China has finally announced a series of substantial stimulus measures to revive its sluggish economy and boost domestic demand. The policies include: Cutting lending rates, mortgage rates, and banks' required reserve ratios. Lowering the down payment for second home purchases from 20% to a historical low of 15%. Introducing a 500 billion yuan swap program to provide funds, insurers, and brokers with easier access to money for stock purchases, along with a 300 billion yuan loan program offering commercial banks cheap funds for share purchases and buybacks. Conclusion: The Hang Seng Index may edge toward 22,080 points based on technical analysis. A short squeeze could occur if the index surpasses 19,706 (the May high). Over the past 20 years, the Hang Seng Index has generally r
How much higher can the Hang Seng Index go amid hefty China stimulus?
US Market Insights (23-27 Sep): Soft Landing Hopes
The S&P 500 $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $iShares Core S&P 500 ETF(IVV)$ $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$ and Nasdaq-100 $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ returned 1.39% and 1.44% last week, respectively. Major market movers included Nvidia (-2.6%), UnitedHealth (-2.91%), Pepsi (-3.48%), Philip Morris (-3.84%), FedEx (-11.08%), Apple (+2.56%), Meta (+7.1%), Amazon (+2.74%), Alphabet-A (+3.89%), and Microsoft (+1.09%). Key economic data this week include Manufacturing and Services PMI on Monday, Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, GDP and Unemployment Claims on Thursday, and PCE on Friday. Major earnings this week include Micron on
US Market Insights (23-27 Sep): Soft Landing Hopes
Fed cuts rates by 50bp. What’s next?
Summary: The FOMC cuts rates by 50 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%. The latest Fed Dot Plot suggests there will be another 2 cuts (50bp) by 2024, followed by 4 more cuts (100bp) in 2025. However, traders are expecting more cuts (3 additional cuts by 2024, followed by 6 more in 2025), according to CME FedWatch. Conclusion: The Fed’s significant rate cut of 50bp shows its determination to stay ahead of the curve and prevent a hard landing. Market participants now believe the U.S. economy is headed for a soft landing at worst. While it looks like stocks are poised to rally, there’s a possibility that investors have already priced in much of the anticipated 2024 and 2025 rate cuts. Investors should be cautious of the election uncertainties that may
Fed cuts rates by 50bp. What’s next?
Apple Stock Fell Nearly 2% on Weaker iPhone 16 Demand Speculation. What’s Next?
Apple $Apple(AAPL)$ fell as much as 4% on Monday due to: Speculation of weaker first-weekend pre-orders for the iPhone 16 compared to the iPhone 15. Shorter delivery lead times: The iPhone 16 Pro Max's waiting time is 21.5 days in the first 72 hours since pre-orders began, compared to 32.5 days for the iPhone 15 Pro Max during the same period last year. However, I believe it may be too early to conclude that iPhone 16 demand is weak due to the following reasons: The iPhone 15 Pro Max had longer lead times due to a camera lens supply issue. The iPhone 16 Pro Max may have better supply availability this year. AI features are being rolled out gradually, and AI will be unavailable in Chinese and Japanese markets until 2025. Customers may not b
Apple Stock Fell Nearly 2% on Weaker iPhone 16 Demand Speculation. What’s Next?
Go to Tiger App to see more news