This week: monthly chart, stockmarket support group, seasonality, what makes a bull market, earnings vs sales, credit stress, corporate cash, and bonus charts on cash... Welcome to the Weekly S&P500$S&P 500(.SPX)$ #ChartStorm— a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web andpost exclusively on Substack. These charts focus on the S&P500 (US equities), and the forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective.1. Happy New Month!After closing February down -2.61%, the S&P500 still managed to hold above its 10-month moving average for the second month in a row.2. Stockmarket Support GroupBut perhaps more interesting is how late last week the market managed to re

Some context for the market rally -- the way sentiment and positioning are developing, it's almost a case of: any excuse and the market will rally.Pessimistic sentiment, and higher cash levels are the key ingredients for bear market rallies...$S&P 500(.SPX)$ https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/b741d586vodhk1254107296/791de102387702307908990975/u22YxTCy734A.mp4https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3xd8hj5m6U

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ This week: market risk drivers, bullish breadth, gas prices vs stock prices, election cycle seasonality, bank flows, bear market rallies, tech stocks, stocks vs bonds, global 60/40, the index effectThese charts focus on the S&P 500 equities; and the various forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective.Hope you enjoy!1. Risk DriversEarlier this year, this chart was a recurring addition, tracking a number of proxies for the big risk drivers that drove the initial correction/bear.EPOL$iShares MSCI Poland ETF(EPOL)$ (geopolitics proxy) - Clearly the Russia/Ukraine conflict is still raging, with no obvio

Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]Bullish (Fundamentals)43.7%Bullish (Technicals)9.3%Bearish (Fundamentals)33.5%Bearish (Technicals)13.5%Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ Bullish (Fundamentals)28.8%Bullish (Technicals)18.2%Bearish (Fundamentals)36%Bearish (Technicals)17.1%The market has run into round-number resistance.10yr yield rebounding back above 4%, DXY also rebounding, WTI crude up off support, gold pulling back but still above 2k, stocks rolling over from resistance...https://twitter.com/Callum_Th

Each week I run a survey on Twitter$Twitter(TWTR)$ , asking people if they are Bullish or Bearish based on “Fundamental“ vs “Technical“ rationale. I run the survey for equities and bonds. The historical data is in the file below.EquitiesBulls vs Bears - Aggregate Viewi.e. overall bulls vs bears, plotted vs the S&P500$S&P 500(.SPX)$ , with 4-week moving average.Bulls vs Bears - Fundamentals vs Technicalsi.e. bulls vs bears spread for “Fundamentals“ and “Technicals“ vs the S&P500.BondsBulls vs Bears - Aggregate Viewi.e. overall bulls vs bears, plotted vs the UST 10yr yield (inverted).Bulls vs Bears - Fundamentals vs Technicalsi.e. bulls vs bears spread for “Fundamentals

1. Thing about trendlines is that they move even if price doesn't -- so you have to face up to your problems sooner or later.2. Hodling on...Despite still heavily Bearish Sentiment, investors have not reduced Equity Allocations(actually, they increased the last 2 months in a row!)3. On the other hand, economic sentiment has come right down to meet investor sentiment.Main Street now agreeing with Wall Street.(basically at this point everyone agrees how bad and bearish everything is. Interesting...)4. Another angle on allocations vs sentiment...As with chart no. 2 it begs the open question -- who is wrong? (+who will do the most work to close dat gap?)5. Similar thing on display in the ARKK chart"Despite weak performance (-85% from 2021 peak), there are now more shares outstanding in this ET

Welcome to the Weekly S&P500$S&P 500(.SPX)$ #ChartStorm— a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web and post on Twitter$Twitter(TWTR)$ .These charts focus on the S&P500 (US equities); and the various forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective.Hope you enjoy!1. S&P 500 Battle LinesFormer support, now resistance.Given previous chopping and twists and turns around this level, I would say it may take a couple of attempts to actually breakout — but if it can make a clean clear break above 3900 it will make bears very uncomfortable...2. When They’re Up They’re UpVery interesting chart by Nomura, seeming to show t

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ Last week I shared with you some of my Best Charts of 2022(as well as my Worst Charts of 2022) — so this week I wanted to follow up with my Favorite Charts of 2022!The following charts made the list either because they were something completely new or just super interesting (to me at least!) ...or indeed ones that helped illuminate some of the key developments across macro and markets. 1. Opinion vs ActionEarlier in the year a fascinating development showed up in the charts: investors were saying in surveys that they were extremely bearish, but their asset allocations spoke louder (telling a story o

1. Everyone's favorite downtrend line chart updatedLiterally right on the cusp of a potential breakout (or fakeout! -- not a done deal, and not meaningful until a clean+clear break is secured)(also n.b. the symmetrical triangle at the end...)2. With earnings season set to kick into full-swing in the next few weeks, it's interesting to note how deeply pessimistic earnings sentiment has become.Bull take: easy to surprise against (even if mediocre)Bear take: if confirmed = bad news.3. On a similar note, retail have already come to terms with the bear market...TD Ameritrade Investor Movement Index plumbing the lows (sentiment indicator based on retail trader account activity)4. Retail Round TripWithout a decent process or overarching strategy it often ends up a case of "buy high, sell low"5. S

This week: annual charts, monthly charts, cross asset performance, earnings, VIX$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ , global vs US, value vs growth, stocks vs bonds, Fed vs markets, and more... Welcome to theWeekly S&P500$S&P 500(.SPX)$ #ChartStorm— a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web (and my own files) and post onTwitter.These charts focus on the S&P500 (US equities); and the various forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective.1.HAPPY NEW YEAR !!The S&P 500 closed down -19.4% in 2022 (or -18.1% including dividends) with a close of 3839.5 (vs the (closing) high for the year of 4796.56 (which was actually the first

Here's the most popular charts from the Weekly S&P500$S&P 500(.SPX)$ ChartStorms of 2022To wave goodbye to the year, I have collated the most popular charts of the year based on a combined ranking of retweets and likes onTwitter. The format is a little different — I have embedded the original tweet so you can see the date, original tweet text, and of course the chart (you can even visit the tweet and see what people were commenting at the time — which in itself can be revealing sometimes!).Along with that I’ve added some comments as points of reflection in terms of the content, insight at the time, and any remaining relevance going forward. So it should be interesting both in terms of what type of content resonated with people through the

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ 1.Could say there is still hope for both Bulls and BearsWill have to wait until next week for resolution.Sometimes the meme stocks gonna meme. But, not exactly a solid way to try and influence the "trend is your friend" crowd in any meaningful way. Short this mess directly down to that invisible lower channel line and don't look back. jmo.2.This is what we call a "Deer In The Headlights">> US Dollar ~sentiment~ has collapsedBUT *positioning* remains stubbornly long...USD could easily crash under a wave of capitulation selling as the holdout bulls see the writing on the wall3.Value vs Growth Turning PointIt sure looks like a multi-decade turning point is in for value vs growth...The technicals are there but the relati

 Welcome to theWeekly S&P500$S&P 500(.SPX)$ #ChartStorm— a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web and post on Twitter$Twitter(TWTR)$ .These charts focus on the S&P500 (US equities); and the various forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective.Hope you enjoy!1. Happy New Month! S&P 500 up +9.11% in July.2. Monthly Seasonality Statistics Table:August is a mixed bag, can be very good or very bad (September is where it gets a bit messy though).3. Big (Bear Market) Rally:Over 70% of stocks tracking above their 50-day moving average, and the index itself has cleared some pretty key levels...That said, some would a

Each week I run a survey on Twitter$Twitter(TWTR)$ , asking people if they are Bullish or Bearish based on “Fundamental“ vs “Technical“ rationale. I run the survey for equities and bonds. The historical data is in the file below.If you would like to participate in the survey simply follow on Twitter:@Callum_Thomas. The good thing about that is it gives the most timely surveyed sentiment update for the end of the week as the various other surveys tend to go out early/mid/later-week. UPDATED TO: 16 Jan 2023 1.EquitiesBulls vs Bears - Aggregate Viewi.e. overall bulls vs bears, plotted vs the S&P500, with 4-week moving average.Bulls vs Bears - Fundamentals vs Technicalsi.e. bull