1.Seasonal Surge in Commodity Inflation?Seems like stagflation risk is rising...But there's a few potential paths to higher inflation that seem to be increasingly on the table. 🤔 $WTI Crude Oil - main 2504(CLmain)$ Image2.Australian Markets Strategy Pack-Bonds look best--(undervalued and emerging uptrend)-REITs and housing look worst--(overvalued and emerging downtrend)Image3.The longer your anticipated holding period, the lower your chances of negative returns.BUT: you can't get that probability to zero (at least without some decent risk management & asset allocation)Also, "positive returns" can have wide variance... $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF

1.The US Tech (and related) sectors are the largest by market cap weight, but also by Earnings weightThe optimists would note that tech earnings share might have room to run given where cyclicals got to in the 2000's boom years... $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.China vs USA: If it's Obvious...When we first posted this note it was quite contrarian, a little controversial, and very counterintuitive, but it seems to be playing out exactly.Why this "obvious loser" of the election may actually be a big winnerImage3.Aggregated assets under management (AUM) in US listed Gold ETFs exceeded $150 billion --- a new all-time high! $Gold - main 25

1.Not-dot-com... something else!Tech stock valuations are priced for perfection+ What's similar vs different to the dot com bubble, and key points for investorsImage2.Stock Splits boost returns(or is it just that stocks that go up are more likely to split... 🧐 ) $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ Image3.Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ is overvaluedImage4.Emerging Markets *ex-China* are set t

1.Did you Know?Seasonality works differently in Bull Markets vs Bear Markets"Sell in May" is really a Bear Market thing... $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Image2.Gold miners are trading at the steepest relative value discount since the peak of the dot com bubble...That tells us 2 Very Important thingsImage3.The forward looking or prospective Equity Risk Premium is set to be *negative* for the USA...But *positive* for everyone else.How could this be?Image4.Chart of the day. $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ Image

1.Meme Stocks.It was supposed to be some weird David vs Goliath thing, but ultimately it really was about a few lucky individuals getting in early, and the subsequent arrival of dumb money who followed the pied piper and lost.Beware of folk selling get rich quick, because it may not be you that gets rich quick! 😲Image2.This is perhaps *the* most important chart of the past few years, it helped in detecting key shifts in monetary policy settings ─ and that’s really been a key macro call to get right in this day and age.Image3.The mountains and valleys of years gone by in Emerging Markets vs US Equities relative performance... $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

1.Seasonally speaking, March is bad news for Gold 👀 But that's not the only thing...The latest Gold Market Chartbook outlines the key monetary tailwinds behind gold, the strong technicals, and albeit mixed messages on flows/positioning $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ Image2.What to Expect when Everyone’s Expecting...The crowd consensus at Goldman Sachs’ investment conference reckons the US will be the best-performing equity region this year.What could go wrong?Image3.Emerging Markets - complacency?EM corporate credit spreads have crunched right down to 17-year lows.There is some genuine good things about this, including positive feedback loops.But a couple of things to considerImage

Wine vs StocksLess Bubbles, more Bubble.I don't know about you but I feel like I see more and more people giving up on drinking -- and just about the opposite sentiments on stocks.While investing in stocks is probably a much better health decision, I would say at this point in the cycle I don't know if it's the optimal wealth decision. 🤔 ImageWhy have US Equities so massive outperformed vs global?Hint: check the earningsRelative price performance follows relative earnings performance...Image2024 Gold market returns in perspective, 2025 gold price Forecasts, comparisons of the scope and size of Gold vs Bitcoin... $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ ImageImageImageImage

1.Sometimes the Technology wins, but investors lose...Key case study here -- railway stocks showed a ton of promise and helped investors build a lot of wealth in the first half of the 1800's, but it was pretty much a one-way track (sorry) thereafter!Can you think of any such case today?Image2.Gold vs Agri CommoditiesA curious echo-trend with significant implications... $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ ImageGold Miners are trading at the steepest relative Value Discount since the peak of the dot com bubble...Here's why they can be considered Defensive + a bullish bet: Image3.JGB 10yr Yields -- what a journey!Image

1.Higher For Longer: This chart was key in 2024 by stopping us getting too bullish on bonds, as a new higher range-trade took hold...Image2.Moar Moore’s LawGood cause for long-term optimism.Albeit, n.b. even as humanity as a whole wins from the onward march of technological progress, the individual winners vs losers will be in near-constant flux + difficult to pick with precision.Image3.US PE Ratios about 2x that of Chinawhy?Because it's ""obvious"" --> explained: Image4.Gold vs Bitcoin: when 5th cycle?If these cycles continue to repeat and a 5th cycle is about to begin that will mean a large wave of outperformance by Gold vs Bitcoin over the coming 12-18 months $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ $CME Bit

1.Bonds can play a vital role in dampening volatility, and improving portfolio risk-adjusted returns ---but gotta say the recent experience leaves a lot to be desired... $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ Image2.China is back in the market, who's driving the market into 2025, $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ vs Bond market echoes, and Work required to buy gold...3.Crazy Chart-bubbles are not a new thing-even the smartest muck it up--how can you learn from this?Image4.Stockmarket investors don't care about yield.(at least that's the message we get in the chart below)The US stockmarket dividend yield is close to 1% --a bit more if you include the impact of buybacks, but still far below fixed income alte

1.BOJ continues policy normalization push, hikes +25bps to 0.50% -- last time they hiked to that level was early-2007Capping off one crazy experiment with another 👺Image2.I realized something the other day...There's a funny duality in markets at the moment -- it seems many people can agree that European stocks are extremely cheap vs US, and many people also agree on the weaknesses and challenges facing Europe vs the upsides and strengths enjoyed by US stocks.Cheap for a reason = It's in the price.Image3.Even after factoring in dividends, "lost decades" are something that seems to come along about at least once per generationIf only there were a way to manage this risk and prepare.......... $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S

1.Tale of two Stockmarkets right there!Two questions:-can tech earnings keep surging?-when will non-tech shake-off stagnation?Image2."stocks go up in the long-run"Yep, but they also go through some pretty major cycles.This is a *good* thing for investors who are prepared to manage risk and capture opportunities. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image3.Initial breakout in Gold $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ , surge in Silver $Silver - main 2503(SImain)$ shorts (squeeze coming?), Deep Value in Gold Miners, and a look at who Holds the most Gold...

This week: monthly chart, stockmarket support group, seasonality, what makes a bull market, earnings vs sales, credit stress, corporate cash, and bonus charts on cash... Welcome to the Weekly S&P500$S&P 500(.SPX)$ #ChartStorm— a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web andpost exclusively on Substack. These charts focus on the S&P500 (US equities), and the forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective.1. Happy New Month!After closing February down -2.61%, the S&P500 still managed to hold above its 10-month moving average for the second month in a row.2. Stockmarket Support GroupBut perhaps more interesting is how late last week the market managed to re

Some context for the market rally -- the way sentiment and positioning are developing, it's almost a case of: any excuse and the market will rally.Pessimistic sentiment, and higher cash levels are the key ingredients for bear market rallies...$S&P 500(.SPX)$ https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/b741d586vodhk1254107296/791de102387702307908990975/u22YxTCy734A.mp4https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3xd8hj5m6U