1.Public company survival ratesThey say about 50% of businesses go bust within their first 5-years, so it seems public companies do a little better than that (which they probably should!)Image2.If you're an index investor you should know about this chart -- the portfolio you have now looks very different to a few years agoHeavy into techVery Light on defensivesDefinitely an important chart, see more $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image3.Seasonality doesn't always work, but it sure did provide a useful guide for the VIX through 2024This is from our "honorable mentions" cha

1.Not-dot-com... something else!Tech stock valuations are priced for perfection+ What's similar vs different to the dot com bubble, and key points for investorsImage2.Stock Splits boost returns(or is it just that stocks that go up are more likely to split... 🧐 ) $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ Image3.Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ is overvaluedImage4.Emerging Markets *ex-China* are set t

1.Meme Stocks.It was supposed to be some weird David vs Goliath thing, but ultimately it really was about a few lucky individuals getting in early, and the subsequent arrival of dumb money who followed the pied piper and lost.Beware of folk selling get rich quick, because it may not be you that gets rich quick! 😲Image2.This is perhaps *the* most important chart of the past few years, it helped in detecting key shifts in monetary policy settings ─ and that’s really been a key macro call to get right in this day and age.Image3.The mountains and valleys of years gone by in Emerging Markets vs US Equities relative performance... $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

1.“time-in-the-market” The popular aphorism states the longer your holding period, the more likely returns are to be positive. BUT a couple of points... 1. A longer holding period does *not* guarantee positive returns (6% is not zero, it's slightly more than 1/20) 2. Smart diversification and risk management should be able to help smoothen the path and help your odds $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.This was another key chart in 2024 as it helped define a major support level for crude oil, and identify a clear sentiment range-lock...Not only that, it will be a critical chart for the months ahead $WTI Crude Oil - main 2502(CLmain)$ Image3.T

1.Higher For Longer: This chart was key in 2024 by stopping us getting too bullish on bonds, as a new higher range-trade took hold...Image2.Moar Moore’s LawGood cause for long-term optimism.Albeit, n.b. even as humanity as a whole wins from the onward march of technological progress, the individual winners vs losers will be in near-constant flux + difficult to pick with precision.Image3.US PE Ratios about 2x that of Chinawhy?Because it's ""obvious"" --> explained: Image4.Gold vs Bitcoin: when 5th cycle?If these cycles continue to repeat and a 5th cycle is about to begin that will mean a large wave of outperformance by Gold vs Bitcoin over the coming 12-18 months $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ $CME Bit

1.Bonds can play a vital role in dampening volatility, and improving portfolio risk-adjusted returns ---but gotta say the recent experience leaves a lot to be desired... $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ Image2.China is back in the market, who's driving the market into 2025, $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ vs Bond market echoes, and Work required to buy gold...3.Crazy Chart-bubbles are not a new thing-even the smartest muck it up--how can you learn from this?Image4.Stockmarket investors don't care about yield.(at least that's the message we get in the chart below)The US stockmarket dividend yield is close to 1% --a bit more if you include the impact of buybacks, but still far below fixed income alte

This week: monthly chart, stockmarket support group, seasonality, what makes a bull market, earnings vs sales, credit stress, corporate cash, and bonus charts on cash... Welcome to the Weekly S&P500$S&P 500(.SPX)$ #ChartStorm— a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web andpost exclusively on Substack. These charts focus on the S&P500 (US equities), and the forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective.1. Happy New Month!After closing February down -2.61%, the S&P500 still managed to hold above its 10-month moving average for the second month in a row.2. Stockmarket Support GroupBut perhaps more interesting is how late last week the market managed to re

Some context for the market rally -- the way sentiment and positioning are developing, it's almost a case of: any excuse and the market will rally.Pessimistic sentiment, and higher cash levels are the key ingredients for bear market rallies...$S&P 500(.SPX)$ https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/b741d586vodhk1254107296/791de102387702307908990975/u22YxTCy734A.mp4https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3xd8hj5m6U

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ This week: market risk drivers, bullish breadth, gas prices vs stock prices, election cycle seasonality, bank flows, bear market rallies, tech stocks, stocks vs bonds, global 60/40, the index effectThese charts focus on the S&P 500 equities; and the various forces and factors that influence the outlook - with the aim of bringing insight and perspective.Hope you enjoy!1. Risk DriversEarlier this year, this chart was a recurring addition, tracking a number of proxies for the big risk drivers that drove the initial correction/bear.EPOL$iShares MSCI Poland ETF(EPOL)$ (geopolitics proxy) - Clearly the Russia/Ukraine conflict is still raging, with no obvio

Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]Bullish (Fundamentals)43.7%Bullish (Technicals)9.3%Bearish (Fundamentals)33.5%Bearish (Technicals)13.5%Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ Bullish (Fundamentals)28.8%Bullish (Technicals)18.2%Bearish (Fundamentals)36%Bearish (Technicals)17.1%The market has run into round-number resistance.10yr yield rebounding back above 4%, DXY also rebounding, WTI crude up off support, gold pulling back but still above 2k, stocks rolling over from resistance...https://twitter.com/Callum_Th

Each week I run a survey on Twitter$Twitter(TWTR)$ , asking people if they are Bullish or Bearish based on “Fundamental“ vs “Technical“ rationale. I run the survey for equities and bonds. The historical data is in the file below.EquitiesBulls vs Bears - Aggregate Viewi.e. overall bulls vs bears, plotted vs the S&P500$S&P 500(.SPX)$ , with 4-week moving average.Bulls vs Bears - Fundamentals vs Technicalsi.e. bulls vs bears spread for “Fundamentals“ and “Technicals“ vs the S&P500.BondsBulls vs Bears - Aggregate Viewi.e. overall bulls vs bears, plotted vs the UST 10yr yield (inverted).Bulls vs Bears - Fundamentals vs Technicalsi.e. bulls vs bears spread for “Fundamentals

1.The Drawdown in Treasuries goes to show that asset allocators should consider more levers than just bonds in the defensive/diversifier sleeve of their portfolios...How gold fits in $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ Image2.This chart made my favorites of 2024 list simply because of how extreme it has becomeRare to see such exponential curves in markets: “in the short-term, the DXY has found support and oversold conditions, and the reset in sentiment could open the door to a rebound.”Image3.This was one of my favorite charts of 2024, and I think it's probably quite easy to see why $.SPX(.SPX)$ “Digging into equities, and for a moment ignoring all the macro narratives and scenarios, the longer-term sentiment

1. Thing about trendlines is that they move even if price doesn't -- so you have to face up to your problems sooner or later.2. Hodling on...Despite still heavily Bearish Sentiment, investors have not reduced Equity Allocations(actually, they increased the last 2 months in a row!)3. On the other hand, economic sentiment has come right down to meet investor sentiment.Main Street now agreeing with Wall Street.(basically at this point everyone agrees how bad and bearish everything is. Interesting...)4. Another angle on allocations vs sentiment...As with chart no. 2 it begs the open question -- who is wrong? (+who will do the most work to close dat gap?)5. Similar thing on display in the ARKK chart"Despite weak performance (-85% from 2021 peak), there are now more shares outstanding in this ET