Here's the topics & takeaways from my latest Weekly Macro Themes report: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 1. Emerging Markets: remain bullish EM equities given improved technicals, reasonable valuations, favorable macro/fundamentals, and very light positioning despite positive sentiment. 2. US Tech Stocks: remain wary on tech stocks given elevated valuations and stretched positioning, but lift risk-watch given strong macro/fundamental momentum and bullish technicals. 3. Gold: gold faces significant down

Capital Expenditure (aka capex) by tech and tech related companies now accounts for half of all S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ corporate capex. Depending on your perspective, this is either the most bullish or bearish chart you’ve seen today! The bulls will say this is a virtuous cycle of tech acceleration where more investment enables more breakthroughs, rapid rollout and scaling, which leads more revenues and favorable funding, which enables further investment (and so-on) The bears will say this decadal-doubling is unsustainable and a classic bubble sign + late-cycle signal (there appear to be trends and cycles in this chart). Meanwhile, economists might quip that it amounts to crowding out of investment that might have gone into industry, healt

Here's the topics & takeaways from my latest Weekly Macro Themes report: 1. Global Growth: the weight of evidence points to ongoing global growth reacceleration in 2026 (this is supportive for risk assets, and tilts to a bullish bias for stocks). 2. Inflation Risk: expect higher inflation globally given starting point of higher than average inflation, stronger global growth, elevated inflation expectations, tight capacity, and rising commodity prices. 3. Treasuries: retain a bullish bias given cheap valuations, very light positioning/allocations, consensus bearish sentiment, but still waiting for macro/technical confirmation (not yet; mostly downside risk for bonds). 4. EM Bonds: remain bullish given cheap valuations, favorable technicals and sentiment, bullish EMFX outlook, but wary o

This week’s chart shows the market cap weighting of US semiconductor stocks (making record highs). It’s a remarkable chart because at ~14% it’s basically double the level it peaked at during the height of the dot-com bubble. It also comes at an interesting juncture as the $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ (Semiconductors Index) just chalked-up a record 17-days in a row of gains. This is a dangerous market. It’s dangerous for bulls because these are the types of conditions where you often encounter sharp corrections and crashes (even if it is the way of the future). But it’s also dangerous for bears because this is basically the bubble-phase of the bull market — attempts at shorting could end up generating large losses in small time as a combi

This chart tracks what have been two of the biggest weak spots in markets. (and is interesting for 2 key reasons) First: both Bitcoin and Software stocks have stopped going down (and actually are starting to look very promising from a technical standpoint) — i.e. the weak spots are no longer getting weaker. That’s important because in markets weakness has a habit of spreading. But also, further upside in these two (which is looking likely) will help rebuild sentiment and reinforce the bullish outlook for stocks in general. Which brings me to the second point… Second: both boast a bullish tactical outlook (as I just outlined in my latest Weekly Macro Themes report) Basically, we’ve seen a major reset in price (software down more than -35%, bitcoin off almost -50%) and a big washout in senti

Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm - 19 April 2026 Learnings and conclusions from this week’s charts: The S&P500 has bounced back & onto new all-time highs. Q1 saw a major cleanout in positioning across participants. Two major weak spots (Bitcoin & Software) are looking better. Global equity technicals look bullish following “healthy correction”. Retail allocations to cash remain around the bottom end of the range. Overall, following what now looks to be a “healthy correction” + a big Q1 clean out in positioning + positive technical developments — it looks like the path of least resistance is higher from here. Mission Accomplished: that looks like a decisive victory. One thing I think that stands out through this whole episode is how despite consensus bullish sentiment, crowded

Global policy remains supportive amid subdued inflation and a gradual economic recovery, but market signals are becoming more mixed. The US Stock/Bond Ratio is rolling over from stretched levels, pointing to rising caution, while relative opportunities are emerging outside U.S. large-cap growth. Investors are increasingly balancing supportive macro conditions against weakening technicals and shifting global leadership. Monetary Policy Pulse: given lack of underlying inflation pressures, steady but nascent global economic recovery; expect policy on hold globally (and to remain supportive for risk assets, growth). US Stock/Bond Ratio: the stock/bond ratio is rolling over from stretched levels (stretched valuations, positioning, and technicals), history suggests caution (but recession risk is