2024 is giving off major 1995 vibes so far. The last time we got a soft landing was 1995. The Fed cut from 6% to 5.25% and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ saw 77 ATH closes. We have already seen 29 ATH closes so far in ‘24, the Fed is projected to cut in Sept, and a soft landing is now consensus.ImageA few days before $SVB Financial Group(SIVBQ)$ collapsed and the Fed stepped in with a massive bailout/easing package that put in the 1st higher low. We were headed to new lows otherwise. Things can change quickly. Adapt or die George.I have 16x P/E for the Equal Weight and even lower if you strip out the Mag 7. The premium valuations are essentially all in Mega Cap.https://x.com/Marlin_Capital/status/18025229882034

$Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ outperformed the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ by +385% during the Dot Com Bubble. We are at +71% in favor of SOX during the current bull run. Plenty more juice left in the Semi space if the AI Bubble is going to reach Dot Com levels. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Micron Technology(MU)$ $ARM Holdings Ltd(ARM)$ Imagehttps://x.com/Marlin_Capital/status/18013700903798869

Historically, Small Caps tend to outperform in the 6-12 months after the 1st rate cut (83% prob in Sep).ImageMarket volatility tends to increase in each month from here as we approach the November election.Image $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ https://x.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1800329601064812909

Since 1950, there have been 21 episodes where the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ was up more than +10% at the end of May. Out of these, the SPX was up the rest of the year in 19/21 instances (91%) for a median return of +13.3%.ImageWhen the SPX trades higher over the first 100 days of a Presidential election year, the rest of the year is up 93% of the time for an average return of 10.1% ($5800).Imagehttps://x.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1797637497373204582

2+ years later, we’re a long way from Covid Bubble valuations in Software now.The pendulum usually swings both ways. 27 month performance on these stocks 👇 $Snowflake(SNOW)$ -53% $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ -36% $Datadog(DDOG)$ -35% $Zscaler Inc.(ZS)$ -36% $BILL HOLDINGS INC(BILL)$ -78% $GitLab, Inc.(GTLB)$ -31% $HashiCorp, Inc.(HCP)$ -45%This is a comment I made in 2022Been saying this for months now, but Buyer Beware. These stocks are still trading at bubble valuations. No company has ever sust

This Semiconductor rally has been 1 for the history books.The outperformance of $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ vs. the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has made its way back through Dot Com Bubble levels to new record highs. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Micron Technology(MU)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ ImageAll aboard the NVDA Bull train.The AI chip titan eclipsed $160B in call volume yesterday, its 3rd highest level ever.Imagehttps://x.com/Marlin_Capita

1 of the craziest stats in the market right now 👇 $Apple(AAPL)$ announced a $110B stock buyback program in Q1. If you strip out the Mag 7 from the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , the average market cap for the S&P 493 is just $65B. AAPL buyback program is 169% larger than the average S&P 493 company.ImageWhen the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ trades higher over the first 100 days of a Presidential election year, the rest of the year is up 93% of the time for an average return of 10.1% ($5800).Imagehttps://x.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1795439679652917329

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ remains undervalued relative to its 3-year median valuation. Following another blowout earnings report, NVDA is now trading at 38x NTM P/E, 13% below its 3-year median P/E.Imagehttps://x.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1793656923965051197

Analysts YTD have lowered 2024 EPS estimates for the S&P 493 by -2%, but raised estimates for the Magnificent 7 by +8%. The aggregate $S&P 500(.SPX)$ EPS forecast is flat. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

Retail traders took over this week.Off-Exchange Volume hit 52% of all US equities traded yesterdayThis is the highest level on record, exceeding the prior retail peak of Jan ‘21 (~50%). $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $GameStop(GME)$ $AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ ImageHedge funds got roasted in Meme Stock squeeze. We just witnessed a 4-Sigma day in HF VIP Longs vs Most Shorted Stocks (-5.9%).This is the 2nd worst day since the original Meme Stock Mania. Imagehttps://x.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1791511378093609419

Hedge Funds were big buyers during last week’s rally. According to GS Prime, last week’s buying in Tech was the largest in 16 months (since Dec ‘22) and ranks in the 99th percentile vs. the past 5 years. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ ImageHere's what I posted a few days ago to compare:Over the past month, we have seen a sharp decrease in positioning across Hedge Funds, Retail, Asset Managers, CTAs, and ETF Flows. The 4wk decrease in positioning reached the most

Consensus estimates are projecting +3% YoY EPS Growth for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ in Q1.Last quarter, Wall Street was also modeling +3% EPS Growth and the realized number came in at +8%. $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ ImageApril is historically a strong month for the SPX. A mid-month dip during tax day/week has also been the norm since 1985.Image https://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1778551277963616400

We are currently in the corporate buyback blackout period for most of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ . Since 2000, US corporations have bought back $5.5T of stock. This has amounted to more demand than any other market participant, and it’s not even close. 👇👇ImageAnd why and how long buyback blackout period?The blackout period is typically 4-6 weeks prior to the company’s earnings report and ends a few days after the release.Imagehttps://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1777340193781014656

The 10 largest TMT（Technology, Media and Telecoms） stocks currently trade at a 28x Fwd P/E multiple.Still well below heights reached during previous bubbles - 52x at the Dot Com peak and 43x at the Covid Bubble peak. $Apple(AAPL)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ Image https://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1770948349878808908

With Tech continuing to lead the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , there is a narrative that the sector has become too big/dominant.But history reminds us that it is not unprecedented to see 1 sector dominate this much. Just like Tech today, Energy ruled in the 1950s. Specifically, Tech’s size today equals the Energy sector’s peak in the 1950s. $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$

Tech valuations are still not nearly as frothy as they were at the height of the Dot Com Bubble.At the peak of the Dot Com Bubble, Tech traded at 2x the P/E multiple of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Currently, the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ trades at 1.25x to the SPX.Imagehttps://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1762565064656040242

Last week, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said that this rate cutting cycle could look more like 1995 when the Fed eased on moderating inflation rather than growth concerns.Despite the slow nature of that cutting cycle, the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ finished +42% in 1995.ImageGoldman’s Sentiment Indicator, which measures positioning across retail, institutional, and foreign investors versus the past 12M, is now into stretched territory.Imagehttps://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1762256469120917587