I warned about Bubble Stocks many times during the Denial Phase of the Bust.2022 was all about valuations coming back to earth.The magnitude of the decline in many growth stocks gives the illusion they are cheap, but not so fast.If you ignore the Covid bubble valuations, many growth stocks are not cheap.Many are actually at ATH valuations, above PEAK pre-Covid multiples.The structure of the Covid Bubble and Bust has closely resembled many historical bubbles, including the early 90s Japanese Nikkei Bubble.https://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1609231495582851072?cxt=HHwWgICx-ZzhkdUsAAAA

1 of the craziest stats in the market right now 👇 $Apple(AAPL)$ announced a $110B stock buyback program in Q1. If you strip out the Mag 7 from the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , the average market cap for the S&P 493 is just $65B. AAPL buyback program is 169% larger than the average S&P 493 company.ImageWhen the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ trades higher over the first 100 days of a Presidential election year, the rest of the year is up 93% of the time for an average return of 10.1% ($5800).Imagehttps://x.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1795439679652917329

We are now 2 years into the current Bull Market that began in October 2022. The average duration of the last 11 Bull Markets has been ~5 years, with 8/11 (73%) making it to the end of the year 3. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2412(NQmain)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL

The FAAMG Bubble has plenty more room to deflate after a decade + of outperformance.What Are FAAMG Stocks?FAAMG is an abbreviation coined by Goldman Sachs for five top-performing tech stocks in the market, namely, Meta$Meta Platforms(Facebook), Inc.(META)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$. FAAMG may also go by the acronym,GAFAM.FAAMG originated from the original acronym FANG, which was coined by CNBC’sJim Cramer. FANG did not include Apple and Microsoft but did include

1.The Fed is looking for months of compelling evidence that inflation is deteriorating. So far, there is none.- Core CPI re-accelerated MoM in Aug - Sticky CPI components printed new highs - Wage growth near peak levels - Food/shelter inflation at peak levels$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$ 2.Housing market stress tends to lag the movements of 30 YR mortgage rates. With 30 YR mortgage rates hitting their highest levels since 2008, the housing bubble bust is just beginning. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ https://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1572723326346465281

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Historically, valuations have risen during Fed easing cycles, with the SPX P/E Ratio expanding by 2.1 points. The last 3 easing cycles were different, however, with the SPX P/E falling by an avg of 3.2 pts. The key difference in the past 3 cycles was the starting point - the start-of-period P/Es in the last 3 cycles were the highest of all 10 cases. For this cycle, 2024 is likely to have the 2nd highest P/E (1st ‘03) at the start of an easing cycle since 1966.Imagehttps://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1744429837819777171

It’s all about liquidity. According to BofA $Bank of America(BAC)$ , Fed balance sheet expansion is responsible for 51% of the SPX $S&P 500(.SPX)$ returns since the GFC, by far the biggest driver of returns. Earnings account for 23%, and multiple expansion most of the remaining. $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ ImageAccording to GS Prime data, hedge fund net exposure remains near 5 year lows and has not moved meaningfully in the last 4 months. Imagehttps://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1641417917999767553

The beginning of Fed rate cuts is a crossroads moment for the market.If there is no recession, stocks tend to perform quite well. If there is a recession, a Bear Market typically looms. Today’s sell off appears to stem from distress that the Fed didn't cut rates yesterday and that Sept. will be too late. The catalyst for today’s reversal was recessionary type ISM Data released at 10 AM. The ISM jobs subindex cratered to 43.4 from 49.3, the weakest reading since June ‘20, and even lower than the 45.4 reading in Sept ‘08 (the month Leman collapsed). $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 1

CBOE released a great article explaining some of the flaws in the Put/Call ratio data circulating on Twitter. Namely, deep ITM put activity has resulted in a sharp spike in the equity P/C ratio that is nondirectional and unrelated to typical option use cases.1 method listed for normalizing the data involves exclusion of ITM options entirely: P/C using only OTM and ATM contracts.Another alternative is to focus on smaller executions. Small Trade P/C avoids the distortion of large early-exercise activity for a clearer picture of small-trader sentiment.When normalized, P/C ratio is certainly elevated, but not beyond levels seen in each of the previous market downturns of the last 5 yrs. https://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1610450796247920641

A full Dovish Pivot from the Fed is already in, according to the market.Over the last 20 days, Financial Conditions have eased at one of the fastest paces in the last decade.Even faster than the 2018 Powell Pivot.$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$Meme stock mania has returned with a vengeance.The 5-day upside move in the “GS Most Shorted Stocks” bucket is one of the largest we have seen in the past 5 years.

Hedge Funds were big buyers during last week’s rally. According to GS Prime, last week’s buying in Tech was the largest in 16 months (since Dec ‘22) and ranks in the 99th percentile vs. the past 5 years. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ ImageHere's what I posted a few days ago to compare:Over the past month, we have seen a sharp decrease in positioning across Hedge Funds, Retail, Asset Managers, CTAs, and ETF Flows. The 4wk decrease in positioning reached the most

We are witnessing the fastest Fed tightening cycle in 40 years. The only 2 faster included a great deal of pain1. 1980 Volcker shock - severe global recession, unemployment spikes to 11%2. Early 70s - stagflation with a lost decade for equities2.The percentage of stocks currently oversold is nearing historic levels.Over the last decade, the proportion of stocks signaling oversold readings has been higher only 3 times.$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$ https://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1574856882866589696

In March, the Fed’s balance sheet expanded by $370B. The only comparable instances in history: 1. March 2020 Covid Crisis 2. Fed’s policy response to Lehman Bro’s failure during the 2008 GFC $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ Imagehttps://twitter.com/Marlin_Capital/status/1641800628744716289

Market sentiment is SKY HIGH right now. Goldman’s Sentiment Indicator hit +2.3 last week, its highest reading since Feb ‘18 and 4th highest in history (dates back to 2010). $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ ImageIt measures stock positioning across retail, institutional, and foreign investors vs the past 12 months. A reading above +1.0 indicates extreme positions.The Small Cap outperformance is just beginning. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ Image