Building_Benjamins
Building_Benjamins
Founder of Tradition Capital Management in 2000. Named “PSN Manager of the Decade” for All-Cap in the 2000s and “PSN Manager of the Decade” for Dividend Value in the 2010s.
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Everest Reaches Peak Performance with Rising Premiums and Business Expansion

1.9% dividend yield, EG is targeting >17% shareholder return.Gross written premium growth of 20.9% year over year, with a combined ratio of 90.9%.EG expects to invest more in reinsurance underwriting opportunities in 2024, aiming for a combined ratio target of 89-91%.Strong earnings growth, with a continued hard market in reinsurance and new specialty lines in the primary insurance business.Sustaining catastrophe reinsurance share at 7% of business, realizing 45% increase in catastrophe reinsurance rates.Investment Thesis $Everest Group(EG)$ is a reinsurance and primary insurance provider. EG is embarking on global expansion in the primary insurance market, attempting to capture the nearly $1 trillion in total addressable market. Additionally, th
Everest Reaches Peak Performance with Rising Premiums and Business Expansion

4.2% Dividend Yield and 7-10% Growth for Comstock Resources

4.2% dividend yield.Growing production reached a record high of 1,400 MMcf/day.Sustainable EPS and FCF (Free Cash Flow) growth.Lowest-in-the-industry cost structure which helps generate 80% EBITDA margins.Huge FCF growth of 218% to $286 million for 3Q22.Delevering program to reduce Debt-to-EBITDA to 0.9x.Investment ThesisComstock Resources$Comstock Resources(CRK)$ is a Haynesville Basin pure-play natural gas producer closely located to the Gulf Coast corridor and near several large LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) terminals. CRK operates 1,600 wells across 372,000 acres with an average lateral length of 8,520 feet.In 3Q22, CRK generated the highest quarterly free cash flow in the company’s history, amounting to $286 million in FCF, which is $1.92 per sh
4.2% Dividend Yield and 7-10% Growth for Comstock Resources

Video: Laredo (LPI): Cheap Earnings with High Guidance Could Skyrocket With Oil Demand Increases

$Laredo(LPI)$ Video: Laredo (LPI): Cheap Earnings with High Guidance Could Skyrocket With Oil Demand IncreasesExiting cheap hedges, should see earnings boost as low price hedges roll offIncreased production targets, oil prices are poised to reset higher as SPR repurchases lost reserves and Chinese demand increases.High earnings for the price, we estimated around 5.0x PE, delevering balance sheet quickly.https://buildingbenjamins.com/stock-thoughts/video-laredo-lpi-cheap-earnings-with-high-guidance-could-skyrocket-with-oil-demand-increases/
Video: Laredo (LPI): Cheap Earnings with High Guidance Could Skyrocket With Oil Demand Increases

Global Leader in Gold Seeks To Dig Out Copper Niche

4% projected dividend yield for 2024.Gold prices should benefit from economic instability, persistent inflation, deficit spending, high debt, and a global move away from the dollar.Newmont is the world’s top gold producer, annually outputting 5.3 million ounces of gold and significant quantities of silver, copper, zinc, and lead.NEM’s main production assets are strategically located in politically stable regions.NEM benefits significantly from gold price increases, adding $400 million in annual free cash flow for every $100/oz rise in gold prices.The major acquisition of Newcrest closed in November, significantly expanding the gold and copper asset base.Investment Thesis $Newmont Mining(NEM)$ is the #1 gold producer globally, outputting 5.3Moz (mil
Global Leader in Gold Seeks To Dig Out Copper Niche

Taiwan Semiconductor Dominates Leading Edge

Semiconductor market is expected to double in size by 2030. TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) accounts for 26% of the world’s semiconductor output.Largest pure play fabricator, strength comes from long-term relationships.Scale and leading-edge technology as one of the only sub 7nm wafer technology manufacturers in the world.International expansion slotted in Japanese and American markets driven by a $100 billion CapEx (Capital Expenditure) expansion.Western governments want to distance domestic technology products from China and bring manufacturing back to their countries or local allies.The US CHIPS and Science Act provides roughly $280 billion in new funding to boost domestic research and manufacturing of semiconductors in the United States.Investment ThesisTaiwan Semiconductor Ma
Taiwan Semiconductor Dominates Leading Edge

Big 7.7% Dividend Yield for Undervalued Stellantis

Strong Auto Brands include Chrysler, Jeep, Dodge, Peugeot, Fiat.7.7% Dividend Yield is the highest among peers.Compelling valuation with a 4.3x P/E compared to sector median of 15.0x.2030 Strategic plan emphasizes global EV (Electrical Vehicles) capacity huge global base to pull from.Realizing consumer gains from IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) in North America, focusing on larger utility vehicles in the United States.Investment ThesisStellantis$Stellantis NV(STLA)$ is a global automobile manufacturer formed on a 50-50 merger with Fiat-Chrysler and PSA Group. Across its 16 brands, it has a global sales footprint in 130 countries and a manufacturing footprint in 30 countries. STLA is focused on moving away from the standard combustion engine and laun
Big 7.7% Dividend Yield for Undervalued Stellantis

GFI Poised to Grow Its 3% Dividend with Expansion and Optimization

3% projected dividend yield for 2025.Gold prices should benefit from economic instability, persistent inflation, deficit spending, high debt, and a global move away from the dollar.Production is concentrated in geopolitically stable areas like Australia and the Americas, with limited geopolitical risk compared to competitors.Low-cost greenfield expansion and disposal of older mines should drive down company-wide all-in-sustaining costs.The Salares Norte project will open in April 2024 and add 600k ounces by 2025 at only $700/oz in all-in sustaining costs.Salares Norte will drive double-digit low-cost growth in production.Investment Thesis $Gold Fields(GFI)$ is a gold mining company headquartered in South Africa with 2.25Moz in gold equivalent produ
GFI Poised to Grow Its 3% Dividend with Expansion and Optimization

6.3% Dividend Yield for a Refocused AT&T

6.3% Dividend Yield.TV and Media business units have been divested.Fiber and cellular 5G are the focus.Pullback in price marked an attractive entry point for dividend-seeking investors.Fiber expansion offers a growth opportunity.Investment ThesisAT&T $AT&T Inc(T)$ is a telecommunications company that offers wireless and wireline services to over 100 million domestic customers.The company has had sustained efforts to streamline its business, including spinning off AT&T TV, Warner Media, and DirecTV. Fiber expansion and streamlined business combined with cost improvements of $6 billion in run rate. However, we do have concerns about the debt level and the company’s ability to reach its FY25 goals. AT&T offers income generation and an op
6.3% Dividend Yield for a Refocused AT&T

Economic and Market Review April

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2306(CLmain)$ $Gold - main 2306(GCmain)$ Continuing Weakness in Banking SectorConcern over additional bank failures has created ongoing uncertainty for equity and bond markets, as the collapse of First Republic Bank $First Republic Bank(FRC)$ this past month has become the second-largest bank failure ever, with $229 billion in assets and over $100 billion in deposits.Federal regulators stuck a deal with JPMorgan $JPMorgan
Economic and Market Review April

ROCC: Growth Consolidator Prints Free Cash

Company is expected to get an FY22 EPS of $10, which could increase to $15 by FY24.Eagle Ford consolidator has a history of a high rate of return (60% ROE) by streamlining small operators.Growth Company in exploration and production.Growth Characteristics should demand at least a 10x PE.Oil pricing is expected to get a boost in 2023 from post COVID lockdown recovery in China and SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) ending its release and possibly reversing to refilling.Investment ThesisRanger Oil$Ranger Oil Corporation(ROCC)$ is an oil and gas exploration company focused on consolidation within the Eagle Ford Basin in West Texas. With over 1,000 identified drilling locations providing high returns for an estimated 20 years, there is significant
ROCC: Growth Consolidator Prints Free Cash

ALB: Doubling In Size Inside a Decade

Second largest Lithium producer in the world.3 Expansion opportunities within the next decade, expecting global lithium demand to surge by 275% by 2030.Favorable pricing above $20/kg has made >100 locations viable for expansion.Global focus on electrification creating surge in demand for Lithium.Albemarl $Albemarle(ALB)$ is one of the largest Lithium producers in the world. Lithium is experiencing surge in demand with electrification of vehicles, with global EV sales up 73% year over year. In addition, surging prices have made new developments economically viable for the first time; nonetheless, demand is still expected to outpace supply creating a shortage.ALB is an experienced player in the chemicals space and has the experience for mining, re
ALB: Doubling In Size Inside a Decade

CPI & Fed Meeting = Big Week. Inflation Slowing, Fed Tightening Continues. Higher Rates and More QT

CPI & Fed Meeting = Big Week. Inflation Slowing, Fed Tightening Continues. Higher Rates and More QT$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Inflation Slowed to 7.1% year over year and 0.1% month over month.Energy helped last month but will reverse as SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) is no longer drained at a million barrels a day. China COVID lockdowns ease and demand returns.Fed Tightening Continued with 0.50% increase and indications that rates will continue higher for longer than the market was hoping. In addition, QT (Quantitative Tightening) has kicked into high gear since September at $95 billion a month, and the Fed has so far been meeting th
CPI & Fed Meeting = Big Week. Inflation Slowing, Fed Tightening Continues. Higher Rates and More QT

Meta's Headwinds And Strategic Misalignment Are Not Virtual

It might be too little too late for Meta on its revamp of its advertising algorithm, with its poor adaptation to Apple's new privacy rules. A significant fall in ARPU, despite increases in ad impressions and increases in monthly active users. There are expensive barriers to entry for consumers and developers in the Metaverse. Headwinds may be difficult to surmount with hiring freeze. Meta Platforms$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ is a sell and faces some difficult hurdles. The company's attempted pivot to the Metaverse with virtual and augmented reality (VR/AR) seems unlikely to be successful.Meta appears to be overcharging potential developers to utilize its platform, causing limited uptake. In addition, the core Facebook business is having difficu
Meta's Headwinds And Strategic Misalignment Are Not Virtual

General Dynamics’ Diverse Defense Portfolio Key Part of Modernization

2.16% Dividend YieldThe Navy aims to procure 55 ships over the next five years, indicating sustained demand for maritime defense capabilities.Notable increase in ordnance production due to global conflicts, with plans for a 600% output increase as soon as 2025.Army and Navy are covering significant expansion expenses as part of an “industrial base modernization” program.Nearly $100 billion backlog, with a company-wide 1.4-to-1 book-to-bill.Investment Thesis$General Dynamics Corp(GD)$ is an American defense contractor with a global footprint. GD operates across diverse segments, including Aerospace, Marine, Mission Systems, and Combat Systems, catering to various industry needs from civilian aircraft to naval ships and combat vehicles.Despite challen
General Dynamics’ Diverse Defense Portfolio Key Part of Modernization

BABA: International Expansion and Domestic Success

Stock decline over past two years creates inexpensive growth stock. Chinese e-commerce leader. 22% Revenue growth. Strong cash position of $45 billion. 70% of FY22 cash flow went toward repurchasing 63 million shares for $5.6 billion. Compelling base of growth businesses outside of e-commerce, including cloud computing, digital marketing, and media. Over 1.3 billion active annual customers, with 75% domestically in China and 25% global. Official cloud provider for Beijing Winter Olympics. Investment ThesisAlibaba$Alibaba(BABA)$ $Alibaba(09988)$ is a Chinese multinational firm specializing in e-commerce solutions but has since branched out into software as a service (SaaS), logistics, and media.Despite so
BABA: International Expansion and Domestic Success

SuperVision Provides Future Vision for Mobileye

Strong growth in advanced driver assistance systems, despite making up under 1% of volume, SuperVision makes up 33% of revenue growth.$17 billion in contracted sales cumulatively through 2030, with an average system price of $105 expected compared to the current $56.2.Robust real-world implementation of SuperVision, with 96,000 units deployed in FY22. Expecting >100% growth in units shipped for FY23.Backed by strong consumer demand for more safety features and more fatigue-reducing driver features.Investment ThesisMobileye$Mobileye Global Inc.(MBLY)$ is an autonomous and driver assistance systems technology firm spun off from Intel after its acquisition in 2017. MBLY is a market leader in both driver assistance technology and future autonomous
SuperVision Provides Future Vision for Mobileye

Medtronic is a Compelling 3.6% Dividend Grower

3.6% Dividend Yield. Dividend increased 8% last fiscal year. World’s largest medical device producer and developer. High 80% cash flow conversion with 50% Free Cash Flow (FCF) shareholder return target. Huge growth portfolio, with 230 products entering the trial phase and 200 approvals in FY22. Portfolio streamlining including a spinoff of low-growth segments into NewCo. Repositioning toward a higher growth portfolio. Chinese drag being offset with double-digit growth in other developing markets. Investment ThesisMedtronic$Medtronic PLC(MDT)$ is the world’s largest medical device producer and developer. Across 50,000 patents and 150 countries, MDT generates over $30 billion in revenue.MDT has a robust FCF with 80% conversion target. In addition, 50
Medtronic is a Compelling 3.6% Dividend Grower

Broken Record – Stay Cautious – QT Has Just Begun

The Fed began to taper $10 billion per month in Treasury purchases in November 2021. This doubled in December as it became clear that inflation was spiraling faster and further than the Fed had predicted. However, please note that tapering was still QE (Quantitative Easing) and still feeding inflation even when it had become obvious that inflation was too hot. The Federal Reserve did not stop QE until April 13, 2022, when the balance sheet peaked at $8.965 Trillion, up 10X versus 2008.One should also note that before the 2008 Financial Crisis, FFR generally ran above Core CPI. It was only during the past 14 years while the Fed was conducting the biggest monetary experiment in the history of the US economy, namely QE, that FFR was consistently below core CPI. Higher interest rates on govern
Broken Record – Stay Cautious – QT Has Just Begun

Video: Centrus Growth Enriched by Domestic HALEU Deal

$Centrus(LEU)$ Centrus Growth Enriched by Domestic HALEU DealThe first domestic enriching capacity contract was granted to Centrus since US capacity fell to 0 in 2013.Significant money in next-generation nuclear technology utilizing HALEU fuels. Centrus has first mover advantage, being granted $150 million from the DoE for commercialization.Centrus expects a 40% growth in nuclear energy by 2050 without climate incentive policies. 105% with those policies included.Every US reactor imports 100% of its fuel, including 30% from Russia. Estimated 15 million SWU gap if Russia is cut off from uranium exports https://buildingbenjamins.com/stock-thoughts/video-centrus-growth-enriched-by-domestic-haleu-deal/
Video: Centrus Growth Enriched by Domestic HALEU Deal

JCI Using Green-Dominance to Pivot to High-Value Services

2.62% Dividend Yield.JCI’s focus on sustainable products, constituting about 55% of its revenue, aligns with global environmental goals and market trends.Building Solutions is shifting focus toward service-oriented business, allowing for predictable cycles and higher margins.Short-term weakness in the Global Products segment and Asia-Pacific installs, with secular tailwinds in sustainable product offerings and growth in the high-tech economy.Investment Thesis$Johnson Controls(JCI)$ is a building automation multinational based in the US. JCI traces its origin to the first-ever electric thermostat and has since grown to operate in over 150 countries with a wide breadth of service and product offerings.JCI is a leader in green buildings, pushing towar
JCI Using Green-Dominance to Pivot to High-Value Services

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