4.2% base dividend, 50% of free cash flow going toward share repurchases.Colorado regulatory uncertainties have historically pressured valuations, but the early 2024 agreement has delayed major risks until 2028.Civitas has partially shifted to the Permian Basin, emphasizing cost reduction in drilling operations rather than outright production gains.Still some minor expansion in DJ Basin, advancing with 4-mile lateral drills in premium-priced high-grade oil.Investment Thesis $Civitas Resources(CIVI)$ was formed in 2021 through the merger of two Colorado DJ Basin Pure Players, Bonanza Creek and Extraction Oil and Gas. Since then, it has become the second largest producer in the DJ Basin and has recently expanded operations into the Permian Basin in

2.2% Dividend YieldLoyal customer base, with loyalty members making up 80% of sales.85% of the supply chain originated in North America, mitigating tariff risk.Produces 55% of its end products in-house, with 40% of products on offer being seasonal only.Peer leader in sales per square foot with $1,074/sqft in sales.Expanding into ‘adjacent’ markets like products marketed at men and products marketed to Gen Z to boost new-customer growth.Investment Thesis $Bath & Body Works Inc.(BBWI)$ is a North American chain of home-good stores specializing in scented products and self-care. BBWI was formed after L Brands spun off Victoria’s secret into its own publicly traded entity (VSCO), with L Brands changing its name to Bath and Body Works. In recent ye

3.14% Dividend Yield13 consecutive years of dividend increases, most recently increasing by 2% in November 2024.Despite overlapping downcycles in pork and beef markets, Tyson generated $1.5 billion in free cash flow.Shifting more production to high margin value-added products like pre-made food and pre-seasoned meat across all segments.Targeting leverage ratio of net debt to EBITDA of under 2.0x, currently 2.6x with most debt maturing past 2027.Investment Thesis $Tyson(TSN)$ is an American meat-processing giant, producing about 20% of the consumer beef chicken and pork sold in the United States. With both pork and beef markets experiencing a cyclical downturn, coupled with a strained consumer, Tyson has seen its margins contract and volumes remain

$.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ OverviewEquity markets closed at another record high on the last trading day of November. November was the best month of the year for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, with the S&P 500 having its best YTD performances since 2013. Largely gains came from renewed market optimism following a Trump victory and strong preliminary economic data.With

Deficit Dilemma: Inflation and Sectoral Shifts in a New AdministrationThe DOGE (Department of Governmental Efficiency) Committee faces significant challenges in addressing the $2 trillion deficit, with most expenditures politically untouchable.Inflation is expected to rise by 2025, driven by persistent deficit spending and nominal GDP growth.Gold $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ remains a strong long-term hedge despite recent sell-offs, with equities favored over bonds during inflation.Natural gas may see growth due to rising electricity demand, while crude oil demand remains stagnant.Healthcare reform faces resistance due to lobbying, despite inefficiencies driving up costs significantly.Subsidies for green energy and electric vehicles may decrease

Recently announced $350 million repurchase agreement, representing more than 10% of shares.Despite pressure from low-cost payment architectures, STNE has been able to maintain a high take-rate thanks to value-added services.Management indicated it may sell off the software arm to run a more lean and transparent business.Obtained banking license in early 2024, allowing it access to cheaper funding and increases the stickiness of the business model.Brazil has a fragmented payments industry with ample cross-selling opportunities. Investment Thesis $StoneCo(STNE)$ is a Brazilian fintech providing hardware solutions for SMBs (small-medium business) and provide payment acquiring services. Since the start of the year, STNE’s stock price has declined

3.95% Dividend Yield.Stock dropped 17.3% on the failure of Emraclidine in Phase 2 Trials, a drug only projected to make up ~7% of revenues.Aggressively expanding oncology offerings, acquiring ADC (antibody drug conjugates, non-chemo cancer drugs) expert ImmunoGen.Expects to replace Humira revenue in 2025 with two new immunology drugs and grow to be more than $27 billion in annual revenues.Shifting focus in neuroscience to Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s, areas with few effective on-market treatments.Investment Thesis$AbbVie(ABBV)$ is a biopharma company, made famous by its blockbusting Humira, at one point the best-selling drug in the world. As biosimilars have eroded Humira ABBV has gone on an acquisition spree to replace lost Humira revenues while a

3.3% Dividend Yield recently announced 4% dividend increase.Expects robust housing recovery in 2026, betting on a similar timeline for commercial real estate.#1 market share in the US for title insurance, in both agency and direct sales.F&G has secular tailwind in life and annuity from aging population.Despite downturn in housing market, FNF grew revenues by 8% over the first 9 months of 2024.Investment Thesis $Fidelity National(FNF)$ is a provider of title insurance and settlement services to the mortgage industry, and a provider of annuity and life insurance through F&G which owns approximately 85% of.We believe we are at the cyclical bottom of the housing market, and at a long-term bottom for commercial real estate. As rates come down an

5.3% Dividend Yield with 5% dividend growth.Strong long-term production profile, expecting a 4% CAGR output increase to 2030 with breakeven below $30/boe (barrel of oil equivalent).Long-term focus on LNGs (Liquified Natural Gas), expecting to grow export capacity by more than 50% by 2030, with 6 Mt/y (million tons per year) in long-term supply contracts signed with Asian importers.Trades at an attractive valuation at just 7.8x earnings.Committed to $2 billion in buybacks each quarter of 2025.Investment Thesis $Total SA(TTE)$ is a French energy company specializing in petroleum extracting and refining. TTE is the third largest non-OPEC producer in the world, producing 1.6 mmbbl/d of liquids (million barrels per day) and more than 5 bcf/d (billion cu

Committed to repurchasing 2.3% of shares within the next quarter, on top of a modest 1.0% dividend.Strong presence in the SMB (Small-medium business) space, consolidating its 16 brands into one coherent entity.#1 commercial card processor in the US, processing more than 35 billion transactions annually across 830 million accounts.70% attachment rate for new offerings to existing customers.Investment Thesis $Global Payments(GPN)$ is one of the largest payment processors in the world, primarily working on the acquirer side. GPN processes more than 75 billion transactions a year with 5 million merchant customers in more than 38 countries.  Compared to its other ‘legacy’ peers, GPN has targeted middle-market enterprise as its growth avenue. I

$.DJI(.DJI)$ $.SPX(.SPX)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2412(CLmain)$ OverviewReal GDP growth came in at 2.8% year over year, with inflation moderating to 2.4% year over year, though food and shelter were still elevated.Real disposable income rose once again for the quarter ending September 2024, the 27th straight monthly rise and the longest streak since record keeping began in 1959. However, the savings rate remains at near record-lows at just 5% compa

TDK is leader in small solid state batteries and announced supply agreement with AppleGrowth areas in wearables, phones, IoT (Internet of Things) and EVs (Electric Vehicles)Dominant market share in several areas, including in smartphone battery components, holding the #1 market share of 50-60%.Strong manufacturing and materials science expertise, first to bring silicon anode batteries to market in 2023.Targeting late-stage development products for M&A.Aggressive capital efficiency plan, potentially divesting business units that do not meet the 10% ROIC watermark.$1 USD = 150 JPYInvestment Thesis $TDK Corp.(TTDKY)$ is a Japanese industrial components supplier, manufacturing 120,000 different products across 80 business units and 4 segments. We

1.8% dividend yield.Secular tailwind from municipal underspending and defense rearmament.Revenue forecasted to grow 10.8% in 2024, driven by increased demand in the vocational segment.Expanding access business into Europe, trying to get ahead of tariffs.Investment Thesis $Oshkosh(OSK)$ is an American manufacturer of heavy equipment, primarily targeting municipal and military customers. Despite the loss of the JLTV contract (Joint Light Tactical Vehicle), OSK has a strong backlog originating from a major win from the USPS (US Postal Service), renewed municipal spending, and expansion into Europe.Oshkosh has a 1.8% dividend yield and a growing free cash profile which we expect to accelerate as startup costs from major contracts roll off going into la

2.0% Yield.Strong secular volume tailwind from aging population, with Medicare Advantage holders having a higher average revenue-per-test.AI (Artificial Intelligence) in pathology testing should drive high margin  growth.Tailwind from more bespoke testing, with genetic testing seeing a market-wide spending growth of 8% and 5% volume growth according to Avalon.Increasing leverage to 2.5-3.0x debt to EBITDA to enable more freedom in aggressive acquisitions.Strong M&A profile, purchasing Canadian provider LifeLabs for $1 billion, which will generate $710 million in additional annual revenues by 2025.Investment Thesis $Quest Diagnostics(DGX)$ is a provider of medical diagnostic services to markets across the world. Operations are focused on No

2.84% Yield.Industry-leading 90% of revenue comes from working timberland rather than leasing it for harvesting rights (stumpage)Largest timberland holdings in North America with more than 10.5 million acres.Long-term tailwinds from historic pent-up demand and lows in new housing.Timber assets generally appreciate with inflation and tree growth.Investment Thesis $Weyerhaeuser(WY)$ is the largest timberland REIT in North America. It owns 10.5 million acres in the US, and licenses 14 million acres in Canada for logging. Additionally, it operates 35 mills with the capacity of 6 billion board feet per year in finished lumber and 4.1 billion square feet of flat and engineered lumber.AssetAsset Value (Per Share)% of totalTimberland$39.3589.6%Other$0.681.5

5.0% Yield.Offering services to enhance margin including more small-business mix and specialized medical logistics services.Consolidating 200 sorting centers, with the new automated counterparts offering a reported 30% efficiency improvement.Expects to generate $5.8 billion in free cash in 2024, adding to its already massive $6.3 billion cash position.Industry-leading capital efficiency, with a return on invested capital median of 27% for the last 3 years.Investment Thesis $United Parcel Service Inc(UPS)$ is an American delivery company that processes more than 20 million packages per day across its fleet of 115,000 ground vehicles and 500 aircraft. UPS is repositioning to target more SMB (Small Medium Business) customers and more specialized logis

Economic and Market Review September 2024• Equity markets have strong year-to-date returns, with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ having its first positive September in 5 years.• $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ and $Silver - main 2412(SImain)$ surge amid continued economic uncertainty and global conflict fears.OverviewThe Fed cut rates by 50bps. The market rallied on the news but flattened out as the month progressed, with the S&P ending the month up 2.8%. However, the last time the Fed cut rates by 50bps with markets at all time highs was in October 2007 – what followed in 2008 came to be known as the ‘great recession’.As a refences, at the time Debt to GDP

2.2% Yield.LW holds #1 market share in North America, and #2 for the rest of the world for frozen-potato products.Dominance in the frozen-potato product market, being the provider for French-fries for customers such as McDonalds, Chic Fil A, Arby’s and Sonic.Transitioning to a volume-focused growth strategy rather than pricing-focused.Expects headwinds in restaurant traffic to begin to alleviate in the middle of 2025.Investment Thesis $Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.(LW)$ is a consumer-staples company specializing in the production of frozen-potato products. Across 27 factories and in more than 100 countries, LW holds #1 market share in North America, and #2 for the rest of the world.As consumer finances have become strained, we believe that consumers wi

2.7% Yield.Kroger agreed to purchase Albertsons for $24.6 billion in October 2022.If approved, Albertsons shareholders will receive $27.25 per share, a 48.3% premium to the current stock price.Albertsons holds 6.4% of total grocery market share in 2023, while Kroger holds 10.1%.$600 million claw back provision to be paid to Albertsons if the merger does not go through, recouping its costs.Investment Thesis $Albertsons Companies, Inc.(ACI)$ is a US grocery chain that operates 2,269 stores across 20 banner brands including Safeway, Albertsons, Acme, and Shaw’s, and 3 private label brands that earn more than $1 billion each.Same store sales increased by 1.4% year over year in the quarter ended June 2024, with a minor expansion of gross margins to 28.4