Florian_Grummes
Florian_Grummes
independent financial analyst, advisor, consultant, trader & investor as well as an international speaker with more than 25 years of experience in financial markets.
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11-19 07:32

Gold Chartbook — Pullback into the last FOMC meeting in 2024

Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ prices came under significant pressure following Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Over all, gold plummeted more than 9% since its new all time-high at USD 2,790 on Wednesday, 30th of October, 2024. This substantial decline came as no surprise as we had anticipated a wave of profit-taking in the gold-market. This sharp downturn was primarily driven by a surge in bond yields, a rallying stock market, and a strengthening U.S. dollar, all of which made gold less attractive to investors.The market’s reaction to Trump’s win was largely influenced by expectations of his proposed policies, which many believe could reignite inflation. Concerns about potential tariffs and immigration
Gold Chartbook — Pullback into the last FOMC meeting in 2024

Bitcoin — The Breakout Rally Has Begun

ReviewIn our last analysis on September 22nd, we suggested that Bitcoin and the entire crypto sector might need a bit more time. Indeed, Bitcoin briefly slipped below the psychological mark of USD 60,000 on October 10th, only to shoot up significantly the next day. This final bear trap marked the definitive trend reversal, which had already begun with the crash low of USD 49,130 on August 5th.At the latest with Donald Trump’s election victory, it’s clear that the breakout rally for Bitcoin has begun. A new all-time high of USD 79,780 has already been recorded. The strong resistance zone between USD 72,000 and USD 76,000 has thus been breached. Above USD 80,000, the real fireworks should begin, rapidly propelling Bitcoin prices towards the psychological magnet of USD 100,000.Overall, the se
Bitcoin — The Breakout Rally Has Begun

Silver Chartbook — Easing War Premium Leads to Healthy Pullback

Since it’s last significant low and turning point at USD 26.40 on August 8th, 2024, silver $Silver - main 2412(SImain)$ rallied by more than 32% to a new 12-year high at USD 34.86 on October 23rd. Over the last two weeks, however, the silver market came under severe pressure and has sold off to USD 30.84 as of Wednesday. This sharp decrease particularly gained momentum following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election. We timely had anticipated a profit-taking event in the precious metal prices in our bi-weekly gold analysis as well as in our most recent weekly gold chartbook.The decline in silver prices can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, Trump’s victory strengthened the U.S. dollar, which typically has an inverse
Silver Chartbook — Easing War Premium Leads to Healthy Pullback

Gold Chartbook — Profit-Taking in the Gold Market?

Since breaking above USD 2,530 in late August, gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ prices have only known one direction: upward. Following a meteoric rise, a new all-time high of USD 2,790 was reached last week on Wednesday. A significant consolidation or even a genuine correction have been notably absent so far. Amid increased volatility, there have only been two sharp but overall very modest pullbacks. Instead, gold bulls have been charging from one all-time high to the next.The broader rally in the gold market has been ongoing since autumn 2022, already. The triple bottom at USD 1,615 marked the trend reversal at that time. However, the uptrend has only gained significant momentum in the last 13 months. Starting at USD 1,810 on October 5th, 202
Gold Chartbook — Profit-Taking in the Gold Market?

Bitcoin Vs. Gold: What Investors Should Know

Gold is definitely driven by geopolitics says Florian Grummes, as well as de-dollarization. Ryan Wilday on Bitcoin's price action. Silver hasn't shown up to the party. Bitcoin ETFs like BITO. Crypto and precious metals - don't overestimate the importance of US elections. AlexSava Listen here or on the go via Apple Podcasts and Spotify Gold is definitely driven by geopolitics says Florian Grummes, as well as de-dollarization (1:10). Ryan Wilday on Bitcoin's price action (3:25). Silver has
Bitcoin Vs. Gold: What Investors Should Know

Gold - Pullback As A Springboard

Gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations, recently reaching an all-time high of USD 2,685 before pulling back to USD 2,605. Key drivers include the first U.S. interest rate cut, a weaker U.S. dollar, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Technical indicators suggest a potential continuation of the rally if gold surpasses USD 2,660 and USD 2,685, though a pullback to the 50-day moving average is possible. Despite recent volatility, the overall bullish trend remains intact, with a mid-term potential upward target around USD 3,080 to USD 3,100 USD. ssucsy In recent weeks, gold (XAUUSD:CUR) as well as the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), iShares Gold Trust ETF (
Gold - Pullback As A Springboard

Gold — Pullback as a springboard

In recent weeks, gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ has experienced significant fluctuations, marked by an impressive rally and subsequent pullback. As the price of gold reached new heights, investors have been keenly observing the dynamics at play. This article delves into the recent movements in gold prices, analyzing key milestones, market consolidations, and the factors influencing these trends. With a focus on technical indicators and potential future scenarios, we aim to provide a comprehensive overview of the current state of the gold market and what it may mean for investors moving forward.ReviewWith the breakout above the resistance zone between USD 2,520 and 2,535, the gold price was able to ignite the next stage of its two-year rally o
Gold — Pullback as a springboard

Gold: The Rally Is Likely To Continue

Summary Gold prices have surged to new all-time highs, driven by geopolitical tensions, potential US interest rate cuts, and strong technical indicators. Despite brief pullbacks and multi-month consolidations, gold's upward trend remains intact, with potential targets of USD 2,535, USD 2,550, and USD 2,560, possibly even reaching USD 2,700. Commercial traders' short positions, high market optimism and seasonal weakness in September suggest caution, but the established uptrend and macroeconomic factors support continued strength in gold. Gold mining stocks, particularly juniors, show significant catch-up potential, highlighted by Gold Fields' acquisition of Osisko Mining, indicating undervaluation in the sector. ssucsy Since October 6th, 2023, gold has been on a remarkable upward trajectory
Gold: The Rally Is Likely To Continue

Bitcoin: This Correction Is Probably Not Over Yet

Summary Bitcoin experienced significant market fluctuations, with a crash to USD 49,577 followed by a strong bounce to USD 62,729. Global stock market pressures, interest rate hikes, and recession fears led to selling pressure on US technology stocks and the strongly correlated Bitcoin. Thus, sentiment has turned bearish. A final panic has an increased likelihood until the end of September or mid of October and should bring the start of a new uptrend. Technically speaking, Bitcoin might not need to make a new low but could shake of the remaining weak hands with a tricky and tenacious sideways consolidation over the coming one or two months. peshkov Not surprisingly, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has experienced significant market fluctuations over
Bitcoin: This Correction Is Probably Not Over Yet

Bitcoin: Potential Correction Looms Despite ETFs, Halving

The stock market rally still demonstrates a lot of momentum, with $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ showing a year-to-date return of 7.11%. Furthermore, the market’s focus on the tech sector, with AI-related companies like $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ experiencing substantial revenue growth and stock price increases, is not waning yet.Besides Nvidia, however, the star of 2024 is without a doubt Bitcoin. Additionally, there are signals from the US central bank hinting at rate cuts, sparking hopes for even more sustainable gains in stocks and crypto.ReviewAs expected, the launch of numerous Bitcoin spot ETFs in early January initially led to a swift pullb
Bitcoin: Potential Correction Looms Despite ETFs, Halving

Gold: This Breakout Is Unambiguous

SummaryGold prices have broken out to a new all-time high, signaling the end of a 13-year correction and consolidation phase.The weekly chart suggests a medium-term price target of USD 2,535, with the potential for even higher prices in the longer term.The sentiment in the gold market is still neutral, leaving room for further price increases.With Chinese citizen as well as the People's Bank of China being on a buying spree, the gold price is now made in China.American Eagle Gold Coin Bullion Investment ObverseReviewAfter a sharp two-month rise to a new all-time high of USD 2,149 on December 4th, the gold $Gold - main 2404(GCmain)$ market experienced a sharp pullback to USD 1,973 in the final weeks of the old trading year, followed by a rapid
Gold: This Breakout Is Unambiguous

Gold: Pullback Almost Done

Gold prices ended 2023 with a 13.1% increase, reaching a closing price of USD 2,063.The gold market remains in a corrective phase since reaching a new all-time high of USD 2,149 in December.The main drivers for gold in 2024 will be inflation, interest rates, and geopolitics, with interest rate cuts potentially benefiting the gold price.The geopolitically very tense situation in the Middle East could kick gold prices higher at anytime.American Eagle Gold Coin Bullion Investment ObverseGold concluded the trading year 2023 with a closing price of USD 2,063, marking an increase of approximately USD 240 or 13.1% over the course of last year. Particularly beneficial for this overall strong performance were the last two weeks of December when, following the FOMC meeting on December 13th, gol
Gold: Pullback Almost Done
avatarFlorian_Grummes
2023-12-04

Gold - Monthly Closing Above USD 2,000 Triggers Breakout Rally

Gold prices have surged by nearly $200 or 11% in the past three weeks, reaching $2,046.If gold can close above $2,000 by the end of November, it would mark the first monthly closing above this significant threshold.The weekly and daily charts indicate a bullish outlook for gold, with a potential breakout rally expected in the coming months.Liberty Gold Eagle one ounce coinIn the last two months, gold has attracted attention with a strong performance. It looks as if the long and tough 12-year consolidation is coming to an end.ReviewCommencing from the low on October 6th at USD 1,810, the price of gold surged by nearly USD 200 or 11% in the subsequent three weeks, reaching USD 2,009. A two-week retracement brought the prices back to the 200-day moving average (back then at USD 1,933) by mid-
Gold - Monthly Closing Above USD 2,000 Triggers Breakout Rally
avatarFlorian_Grummes
2023-11-25

Bitcoin: Taking A Breath Before The Next Surge

Summary Bitcoin has seen a 145% increase in value over the past 12 months, hence outperforming all other assets like stock markets and precious metals. Bitcoin's recent rally has made it easier for trend-followers, but the vast majority of gains were achieved by three big green weekly candles over the course of this year. A final surge towards the 61.8% retracement around USD 48,000 to 50,000 remains likely. Afterwards a deep pullback is expected. monsitj From its November 2022 low to its recent high, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) as well as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTC:GBTC) is up 145% within 12 months. But of course, it wasn’t easy to ride this rally if you didn’t have a good entry or are a l
Bitcoin: Taking A Breath Before The Next Surge
avatarFlorian_Grummes
2023-11-24

Bitcoin: Taking A Breath Before The Next Surge

Bitcoin has seen a 145% increase in value over the past 12 months, hence outperforming all other assets like stock markets and precious metals.Bitcoin's recent rally has made it easier for trend-followers, but the vast majority of gains were achieved by three big green weekly candles over the course of this year.A final surge towards the 61.8% retracement around USD 48,000 to 50,000 remains likely. Afterwards a deep pullback is expected.silhouette form of bull on technical financial graph 3d illustrationFrom its November 2022 low to its recent high, Bitcoin as well as $Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC)(GBTC)$ is up 145% within 12 months. But of course, it wasn’t easy to ride this rally if you didn’t have a good entry or are a long-term holder. Until t
Bitcoin: Taking A Breath Before The Next Surge
avatarFlorian_Grummes
2023-09-21

Gold: Tenacious Correction Not Definitely Finished

Gold prices have been under pressure for the past two months, reaching a new low at USD $1,885 on August 21st.The correction that began in May is still ongoing, with the bears struggling to push prices significantly below USD $1,900.The seasonal pattern for gold suggests caution and patience until mid-December, while the daily chart shows potential for a bullish move above USD $1,930.Above USD $1,985 the market will shift its focus on a breakout to new all-time highs. In late April, we timely warned about a topping process in the gold market and expected prices to pull back towards USD $1,900 over the following weeks. On June 29th, with gold reaching an intraday low at USD $1,893, we turned bullish. After a nice bounce back towards USD $1,987, we urged some caution and expected another pul
Gold: Tenacious Correction Not Definitely Finished
avatarFlorian_Grummes
2023-09-11

Bitcoin: Emotional Rollercoaster At Critical Support

SummaryBitcoin outperformed all other asset classes between January and July, but over the last seven weeks it is down more than 18%.The recent drop in Bitcoin's price has been attributed to various factors, including economic data from China and the Binance saga. Overall, the sector still is in a bear market.Technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin's weekly and daily charts are bearish, and sentiment in the crypto sector is slightly fearful.Overall, September tends to be very negative for Bitcoin.Glowing dark background with bitcoin symbol.Between early January and mid of July, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) as well as the $Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC)(GBTC)$ had outperformed all other asset classes. Over the last seven weeks, however, the largest and most d
Bitcoin: Emotional Rollercoaster At Critical Support
avatarFlorian_Grummes
2023-07-31

Bitcoin: Breakout To The Upside Is Most Likely

Bitcoin's price has been consolidating over the last four weeks, with the market anticipating a breakout.But since mid of June, fueled by the excitement surrounding a potential Bitcoin ETF by BlackRock, Bitcoin has seen a significant increase of over 27%. Solana is even up 75%.However, the macroeconomic outlook as well as the typical summer lethargy providing reasons for skepticism and restraint.Technically, Bitcoin seems to work to win a Bollinger Band Squeeze.Our "high for the year" target remains USD 48,550, and we remain cautiously bullish.Glowing dark background with bitcoin symbol.Bitcoin's (BTC-USD) price action in the last four weeks has been characterized by consolidation and a lack of decisive movement. The market is eagerly anticipating a breakout, and the next significant price
Bitcoin: Breakout To The Upside Is Most Likely
avatarFlorian_Grummes
2023-06-30

Gold Technical Analysis- No Clear Turning Point Yet

SummaryGold prices have failed to break through the resistance zone of USD 2,070, leading to a correction in the gold market over the past seven weeks - a decline of about 7.6%.Despite the correction, gold has seen a small increase of 4.4% since the start of the year but the performance of gold mining stocks has been disappointing, with industry giant Newmont Corporation seeing a decline of 16.14% since January.While seasonality is slowly but surely turning positive, gold is in search of its typical early summer low from which another run towards about USD 2,070 is expected.As liquidity remains the pivotal piece of the macro puzzle, once the Federal Reserve announces a reversal in its monetary policy, gold price is expected to rise.In the bigger picture, gold will likely break out to news
Gold Technical Analysis- No Clear Turning Point Yet
avatarFlorian_Grummes
2023-06-22

Bitcoin: New Fantasy Despite Summer Lull And Uncertainties

SummaryBitcoin prices have recovered by 8.2% to around USD26,850 in the past two days, possibly due to BlackRock's application for a Bitcoin ETF.Despite recent declines, Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen positive price developments since the beginning of the year, with gains of 60% and 46%, respectively.The ongoing recovery in Bitcoin prices should provide insight into the state of the crypto sector and whether a clear trend reversal and breakout from the downtrend channel will occur.Glowing dark background with bitcoin symbol.With prices reaching nearly USD31,000, Bitcoin's recovery rally hit its peak on April 14th. This resulted in a doubling of prices within a span of five months. Our initial two price targets of USD25,000 and USD30,000 were achieved.ReviewHowever, since mid-April, Bitcoin
Bitcoin: New Fantasy Despite Summer Lull And Uncertainties

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