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Long_Equity
Concentrated Global Equity Fund | ROC + FCF | Linear Compounders | Value Creation + Pricing Power | “There’s never a bad time to buy a compounding machine.”
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11-25 08:18

The companies that deserve close attention

Here are some of the companies that I follow closely, but don’t currently own:- Synopsys $Synopsys(SNPS)$ - Cerillion $Cerillion PLC(CRLLF)$ - $Nemetschek AG(NEMTF)$ - $Qualys(QLYS)$ - Technology One $Technology One, Ltd.(THNOF)$ - Arista Networks $Arista Networks(ANET)$ - IDEXX $IDEXX Laboratories(IDXX)$ - Texas Instruments $Texas Instruments(TXN)$ - ASML $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ - DISCO
The companies that deserve close attention

Best MSCI Index: Robotics, AI & Cloud Outperforms

What's the best MSCI Index to follow?Since 2010, the MSCI Robotics, AI & Cloud index has outperformed 13 out of 14 years.It's average CAGR is 22%, which is a 11% outperformance of the broader market, i.e. MSCI World.At the bottom we have energy and materials.ImageSome companies are in MSCI Robotics $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $SAP SE(SAP)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$
Best MSCI Index: Robotics, AI & Cloud Outperforms

What matters more - FCF growth rate or FCF yield?

What matters more - FCF growth rate or FCF yield?The correlation between the share price growth rate and the FCF/share growth rate is higher (left), than the correlation between the share price growth rate and the change in FCF yield (right).I used 10 year data for the $.SPX(.SPX)$ . $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ ImageImageWhat I take from your chart is that over the course of 1 year the multiple impacts 46% of performance, which then drops rapidly to just 5% over 10 years. So yes, I think both charts are explaining the same thing. Over the short term, the multiple is just noise.
What matters more - FCF growth rate or FCF yield?

The highest quality companies in the Fundsmith/Smithson

What are the highest quality companies in the Fundsmith/Smithson investable universe?I took the complete set of holdings from both funds and ran it through one of my custom quality filters.Here are the ones that rise to the top 👇🏼👇🏼Which do you own? $MSCI Inc(MSCI)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Fortinet(FTNT)$ $Visa(V)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ I
The highest quality companies in the Fundsmith/Smithson

Capital-light compounders

Investors often talk about compounding and when they do - donuts and snowballs are often used as illustrations.🍩 The ring of a donut resembles the compounding cycle of retaining profits from the previous year to reinvest for the following year.❄️ And if animations are to be trusted, a ball of snow rolling down a hill can start small, but gradually becomes larger and larger, just like the compounding's snowball effect.In this post, I’ll explore how different Returns on Capital (ROC) and growth rates can impact the compounding process and explain why even small adjustments can create a huge difference in your returns over time.1. High ROC + Low Growth Rate: Flatline SnowballsWhile investors in compounders often emphasise the importance of consistently high returns on capital, they often negl
Capital-light compounders

Here's a quick look at ATOSS Software!

Here's a quick look at ATOSS Software...What are your thoughts?⬇️⬇️⬇️📈 Share price up 415% since 1999.ImageCash return on capital consistently above 20%, but also growing (currently over 60%).Image Free cash flow and dividends have both grown substantially over the decadesImage Pricing power is strong... the below is from my research note on ATOSS.Image Since 2020, the company's valuation has de-rated slightly, so is now at a more attractive valuation.ImagePS:Two things you can do to become a better investor:1. Limit the number of companies you own2. Limit how frequently you tradeThis forces you to only own your best ideas and to accept that there will always be an opportunity that you miss out on.
Here's a quick look at ATOSS Software!

Here's four quality growth dashboards

Here's four quality growth dashboards, covering: $Atlas Copco AB(ATLRF)$ $HMS Networks AB(HMNKF)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2412(NQmain)$ $Veeva(VEEV)$ Which stand out to you?ImageYear 1 - you invest $20 and make $10Year 2 - you invest $10 and make $5Year 3 - you invest $5 and make $2.50Your ROC is 50%, but your annualised growth rate is -50%.That’s why ROC and growth both matter. Look for both.Year 1 - you invest $20 and make $10Year 2 -
Here's four quality growth dashboards

Here are four essential ratios for analysing companies

Here are four essential ratios for analysing companies:1. Growth. Consider both revenue and free cash flow. Consider both the short term and long term. Look for consistency. Consider the impact of buybacks on per share growth metrics.2. Margins. Look for margins that are widening over time, allowing FCF growth to outpace revenue growth. Consider each expense separately (e.g. COGS, R&D, CAPEX).3. Return on capital. Look for a consistently high number and a low payout ratio. Consider the company’s debt level and interest expense.4. FCF yield. Consider whether the growth rate justifies the valuation. Be mindful of stock-based compensation.What would you add?
Here are four essential ratios for analysing companies

What's happening inside Estee Lauder?

What's happening inside $Estee Lauder(EL)$ ?I don't invest in consumer stocks, but this is an interesting one.- All measures of profitability are down over the last 5 years.- Return on capital has plummeted since 2019.- Margins have weakened as COGS and SG&A have gone up.- Leverage and cost of debt also up.Companies selling to other companies enter into long-term contracts, which can mean highly predictable and recurring revenue,While a fair number are seemingly more expensive than the S&P 500, the potential of these companies to continue growing their FCF at above market rates remains.Image
What's happening inside Estee Lauder?

Only 33% of companies in the S&P 500 beat the S&P 500

Here's a histogram of the $.SPX(.SPX)$ 's YTD share price returns.* Only 33% of companies in the S&P 500 beat the S&P 500.* The outsized returns have come from $Vistra Energy Corp.(VST)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ .Is it easy or hard to beat the market?!Image
Only 33% of companies in the S&P 500 beat the S&P 500

NVDA, MSFT, MA & V - The potential of these companies to continue growing

Here's a quick look at the valuations of the companies in my portfolio.While a fair number are seemingly more expensive than the $.SPX(.SPX)$ , the potential of these companies to continue growing their FCF at above market rates remains. $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ $Visa(V)$ $Fortinet(FTNT)$ $MasterCard(MA)$ $KLA-Tencor(KLAC)$ $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ $MSCI Inc(MSCI)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$
NVDA, MSFT, MA & V - The potential of these companies to continue growing

Great quality investors need to understand competitive disadvantages

Great quality investors need to understand competitive disadvantages... not just competitive advantages.Here are 5 to look out for:🚫 High Costs: Inefficiency drives prices up, making it tough to compete on price (think narrow margins).👤 Weak Brand Identity: It's hard to build loyalty if no one trusts you or even knows you.🐢 Slow Innovation: Falling behind in tech is a failure to adapt to change.🌍 Limited Market Reach: Without efficient product distribution, your growth is capped.🌐 Weak Network Effects: Without enough users, platforms struggle to add value and reach a critical mass.
Great quality investors need to understand competitive disadvantages

The top contributors to performance were NVIDIA and Visa

Portfolio at the end of October 2024.October performance: +1.8%YTD: 17.3% There were no outright sales or purchases. The top contributors to performance were $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Visa(V)$ . The top detractors from performance were $KLA-Tencor(KLAC)$ and $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ .FCF ROC = 36% FCF per share CAGR (5yr) = 24% FCF Linearity (5yr) = 0.93 FCF Margin Expansion (5yr) = 6% FCF Yield = 3.01% $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ $MSCI Inc(MSCI)$ $Visa(V)$ $Fortinet(FTN
The top contributors to performance were NVIDIA and Visa

The difference between capital-light and capital-intensive, and asset-light and asset-heavy

Every investor should understand the difference between capital-light and capital-intensive, and asset-light and asset-heavy.⬇️⬇️⬇️🌱 Capital-light: Business requires minimal capital investment to operate and grow.🏦 Capital-intensive: Business requires significant investment into assets and infrastructure to operate and grow.📊 INSIGHT: Look for a low CAPEX / OCF ratio.💡 Asset-light: Business relies more on intangible assets than physical assets to operate and grow.🏗️ Asset-heavy: Business relies on physical assets to operate and grow.📊 INSIGHT: Look for a high Intangible Assets / Total Assets ratio.🔍 Note: Asset-heavy companies are often capital-intensive, needing significant CAPEX to maintain physical assets.
The difference between capital-light and capital-intensive, and asset-light and asset-heavy

I hold a positive view of $MTD

What your view on $Mettler-Toledo(MTD)$ ? It's impressive how over the last 5 years they turned 5% revenue CAGR into 19% FCF per share CAGR.There's a consistent history of buybacks, plus a very attractive valuation.ImageOn the surface, it looks like there’s a lot of debt. But it appears affordable. And I think the buybacks have contributed to this appearance.Generally, I hold a positive view of MTD. It continues to be one of my core holdings. The business keeps improving
I hold a positive view of $MTD

Here's a histogram of the $SPX's YTD share price returns

Here's a histogram of the $.SPX(.SPX)$ 's YTD share price returns.* Only 33% of companies in the S&P 500 beat the S&P 500.* The outsized returns have come from $Vistra Energy Corp.(VST)$ , NVIDIA and $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ .Invested in semiconductors? Then you might like these quality growth dashboards that I've put together for $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ $Cadence Design(CDNS)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $KLA-Tencor(KLAC)$ ImageHere's a dashboard I've been working on to capture a ran
Here's a histogram of the $SPX's YTD share price returns

What's the best part of the Semi supply chain to invest in?

What's the best part of the semiconductor supply chain to invest in?I ran some quality growth metrics for each part. Here are some helpful findings:- CAPEX: The highest capital expenditure is found in the fabs (so $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ $GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$ ). Although high levels are also found with chip designers.- SBC: High levels are found particularly with the EDAs (so $Cadence Design(CDNS)$ and $Synopsys(SNPS)$ ), and also some of the designers ( $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ ).- ROC: High levels are found with the EDAs and equipment manufacturers.- Growth: H
What's the best part of the Semi supply chain to invest in?

AMAT - There's more than one type of growth

There's more than one type of growth $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ supplies equipment to the semiconductor industry. Over the last 5 years AMAT has grown.But when we say a company has grown, what precisely does that mean?Companies have many parts to them. Each part can grow at different rates.Let's consider AMAT's growth over the last 5 years.Revenue has grown by 9.7% per annumGross profit has grown 10.5% per annumOperating profit has grown 11.3% per annumNet income has grown 17.7% per annumFree cash flow has grown 19.1% per annumFree cash flow per share has grown 23.9% per annumShare price has grown 29.0% per annumAs you work down the above list you will notice that the percentage growth numbers are going up.Companies with pricing power see their gro
AMAT - There's more than one type of growth

A list of companies that are growing their dividends

Here’s a list of companies that are growing their dividends, both at a high rate and with high linearity.What’s your favourite dividend grower? For the full spreadsheet of global dividend growers $Safestore Holdings PLC(SFSHF)$ $Estee Lauder(EL)$ $Croda International Plc(COIHF)$ $Mainfreight Ltd.(MFGHF)$ $Home Depot(HD)$ $LVMH-Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton(LVMHF)$ $Watsco(WSO)$ $Infosys(INFY)$ $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ <
A list of companies that are growing their dividends

Here's a quick analysis of the cybersecurity company $QLYS

Here's a quick analysis of the cybersecurity company, $Qualys(QLYS)$ 1. Return on capital has been going up consistently, and now sits above 50%.Image2. FCF per share growth has been going up exponentially, and is growing around 20% per annum.Image3. This FCF per share growth has been the result of both revenue going up and expense margins coming down - suggesting the company is now operating at a higher efficiency.Image4. Their use of stock-based compensation has been pretty high (currently around 28% of operating cash flow). Qualys has been counteracting any dilution by buying back stock, hence a reduction in shares outstanding.ImageImage5. FCF yield is also currently at a decade high, in part to it being now down 38% since its Dec 23 high. What
Here's a quick analysis of the cybersecurity company $QLYS

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