Alice Arnault
Alice Arnault
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avatarAlice Arnault
2023-05-03

Techical analysis 101: Valuation methods with cases

Follow me at @Alice Arnault to learn more  Saw quite a number of news stories which talk about valuation, so hope to share a bit on this Relative Valuation - estimates the value of an asset by looking at the pricing of assets relative to a common variable like earnings, cash flows, book value or sales. • Most common multiples: P/E, EV/EBITDA, Price/Book Value, EV/Sales, PEG ratio, free cash flow yield, dividend yield Case: In 2020, the average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index was around 22x, while the historical average is about 15x. This suggested that the market might have been overvalued at that time. • Historical analysis: how does current pricing compare to history Quant: In 2007, just before the financial crisis,
Techical analysis 101: Valuation methods with cases
avatarAlice Arnault
2023-05-09

Tech analysis 101: ADR vs Stock price: Whats the difference

Follow me at @Alice Arnault and let us learn and earn together![Lovely]  The use of ADR is very common on Tiger express and related news. A few have expressed that they are the same as stocks but it's actually different  When someone says an ADR has fallen, it means that the price of the American Depositary Receipt (ADR) has decreased in value on the U.S. stock exchange where it is traded.  This decline in the ADR's price may be due to various factors, such as changes in the underlying foreign company's stock price, fluctuations in currency exchange rates, or shifts in market sentiment towards the company or its industry. The difference between an ADR falling and a domestic stock falling is primarily related to the
Tech analysis 101: ADR vs Stock price: Whats the difference
avatarAlice Arnault
2023-06-04

Stock Persona Method: Tesla and Apple as cases

Follow me @Alice Arnault for less fluff A lot of us would use user persona, product persona etc, this is the same for stocks as well. In this case Stock persona refers to the specific characteristics and behavioral patterns of a stock, which reflect its performance in the market and how investors perceive it. It can involve factors such as volatility, stability, growth potential, and value attributes. Understanding stock persona helps you to choose some stocks suitable  for oneself and requires research and analysis. Here are some methods to understand it 1. Study the company's fundamentals: Understand the company's financial condition, profitability, competitive advantages, etc. These factors can help you assess the company'
Stock Persona Method: Tesla and Apple as cases
avatarAlice Arnault
2023-05-16

Whats a “good”payback period?

This concept actually moves beyond short term investment but also into project decisions so many readers would be familiar with it, but when evaluating businesses and products this requires a different erspective  The payback period in business and finance refers to the length of time required to recover the cost of an investment. In simple terms, it's the time it takes for an investment to generate enough cash flows to recover the initial outlay. The calculation for the payback period is quite straightforward: Payback Period = Initial Investment / Annual Cash Inflows For example, if a company invests $1 million in a project that's expected to generate $200,000 per year, the payback period would be: $1 million / $200,000 = 5 years Good? As always in business, it depends The payback pe
Whats a “good”payback period?
avatarAlice Arnault
2023-05-04

Tech analysis 101: EV/Ebita pls use this with PE

🔹Why use EV/EBITDA?🔹 EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) is a valuation multiple used alongside P/E (Price-to-Earnings) to evaluate companies, especially those with heavy investment. It's useful for comparing firms with different capital structures and has some advantages over P/E. 🌟 Enterprise Value (EV) = Equity market cap + Long-term debt - Cash ✅ Strengths of EV/EBITDA: 1️⃣ Rarely negative: Unlike P/E, EV/EBITDA is hardly ever negative, making it easier to compare companies. 2️⃣ Eliminates D&A differences: Depreciation & Amortization (D&A) can vary across companies, but using EBITDA eliminates these differences. 3️⃣ Eases comparisons: By factoring in debt and cash, EV/EBITDA helps compare companies with different c
Tech analysis 101: EV/Ebita pls use this with PE
avatarAlice Arnault
2023-05-21

Compare with effective interest rate not interest rate

Loans are a fundamental part of of businesses, forming a critical component of leverage .recenly a friend was comparing the loans between what she can get Note from the big differences in interest quoted for $DBS Group Holdings Ltd.(DBSDY)$ $UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED(U11.SI)$ and $Grab Holdings(GRAB)$  Basically the difference comes from the inclusion of fees and compounding and other fees effects making it a more comparison Follow me @Alice Arnault To for logical learning and earning together 
Compare with effective interest rate not interest rate
avatarAlice Arnault
2023-05-15

Reasonable bid spread for options

Follow me at @Alice Arnault Less fluff and more substance  Always look far and wide 5 to 10 percent A good rule of thumb for a "reasonable" bid-ask spread on options is to look for spreads that are no more than 5-10% of the option's ask price. For highly liquid options, such as those on widely-traded stocks or ETFs, you may find spreads much narrower, sometimes just a few cents. However, for less liquid options or options with less trading activity, you may find wider spreads.  In such cases, be cautious when trading these options, as the spread could significantly impact your profits. Additonal costs from spreads If the spread is higher than 10% of the ask price, it may be considered too high, and you should evaluate
Reasonable bid spread for options
avatarAlice Arnault
2023-05-12

Technical 101: Straddle strategy : a formula and template

This is a extension of @Tiger_comments piece on this where this strategy can be used for highly volatile assets.  Follow me @Alice Arnault and let us learn and earn together Step by step  Identify a growth stock: Find a growth stock that you believe will experience significant price movement in the near future, either up or down. Growth stocks are typically characterized by rapidly increasing revenues, earnings, and market share. Choose the strike price: Select a strike price that is close to the current trading price of the stock. This is the price at which you will buy the call option and the put option. Buy call and put options: Purchase a call option (t
Technical 101: Straddle strategy : a formula and template
avatarAlice Arnault
2023-05-22

Lost money? What you do next depend on why you invested

Follow me @Alice Arnault To learn and earn at all times Many of my friends consult me at times what they should do when their equity or fund has lost ground ,as in life it depends  The first category, quite common, is known as 'momentum' or 'trend following' investing. In simpler terms, this involves being attracted to assets that seem to be consistently growing. When people observe an asset rising day by day, they naturally get excited and are tempted to jump on the bandwagon. Hence, if a fund is constantly appreciating, it's quite likely that a lot of people will buy into it. Many platforms love to promote such funds that have been performing exceptionally well over the short term. And when these funds outpace the market's
Lost money? What you do next depend on why you invested
avatarAlice Arnault
2023-05-05

101 QnA: Why does Sheng Shiong have higher ROE than Alibaba/JD

Warren Buffett is often said to value ROE has a indicator but we also see that companies like $SHENG SIONG GROUP LTD(OV8.SI)$ has a higher ROE than $Alibaba(BABA)$  Always look beyond the rainbow This is might seem perculiar but the reasons why it might be so be because  Profit margins: Sheng Siong might have higher profit margins compared to Alibaba and JD.com, which could contribute to a higher ROE. This can be due to factors like efficient cost management, pricing strategies, or lower competition in their respective markets. Financial leverage: Companies with higher financial leverage (more debt relative to equity) can exhibit higher ROE because they use borrowed money to gen
101 QnA: Why does Sheng Shiong have higher ROE than Alibaba/JD
avatarAlice Arnault
2023-01-09
$CF Industries Holdings Inc(CF)$   Investment? An extended global supply crunch for natural gas­—used to produce nitrogen, which farmers can’t skip—may give the US-based fertilizer maker a prolonged cash flow boost. CF’s access to low-cost US gas will help position it to capture higher margins than most of its European and Asian peers. The transition to clean energy is also heating up competition for natural gas, which in turn has the potential to keep the nitrogen market tight for years.
avatarAlice Arnault
2023-05-09

Tech analysis 101:NAV for Navigating investment

Follow me @Alice Arnault and let us learn and earn together. This is not a sponsored post.  Was analysing the @FundMall  promo recently Advert pic Some friends have asked me what NAV means since its in such a prominent location of the reports. So wrote something to share NAV is a metric commonly used to measure the value of a mutual fund, exchange-traded fund (ETF), or closed-end fund.  It represents the per-share price of the fund's assets minus its liabilities.  The NAV is calculated at the end of each trading day by dividing the total net assets of the fund by the total number of outstanding shares. Here's how to interpret NAV: Share price: The NAV is es
Tech analysis 101:NAV for Navigating investment
avatarAlice Arnault
2023-05-08

April,July , October and other dates to take note

Follow me @Alice Arnault and let us learn and earn together  Besides your girlfriend's birthday, there are important dates to take note of As a core, Typically, the quarters end in March, June, September, and December, and companies release their earnings reports approximately one month later. As a result, April, July, and October are key months when earnings are announced, and analysts and investors scrutinize the data closely to make informed investment decisions. Economic data releases: Economic indicators such as GDP growth, employment reports, consumer confidence, and inflation data are released at scheduled intervals. These reports can influence market sentiment and provide insights into the overall health of the econom
April,July , October and other dates to take note
avatarAlice Arnault
2023-04-26

Some differences in trading strategy between blue chip and penny stocks

Here are some of the main differences in strategy for blue-chip stocks and penny stocks: Research and stock selection: Blue-chip stocks: Focus on well-established, financially stable companies with strong market positions, consistent earnings, and a history of dividend payments. The evaluation is often based on long-term growth prospects, competitive advantages, and management quality. Penny stocks: Focus on identifying undervalued, high-risk companies with potential for substantial growth. These stocks may lack a track record or have a less established market position, requiring a more speculative and cautious approach to research and selection. Diversification and position sizing: Blue-chip stocks: Given their lower risk profile, blue-chip stocks can make up a larger portion of a diversi
Some differences in trading strategy between blue chip and penny stocks
avatarAlice Arnault
2023-05-12

Super short straddle strategy summary

If its Volalite market where you predict that prices might move ,but not sure direction[Smug]  Choose growth stock[Bless]  Identify the possible price levels you might want it to go up or down [Silence]  Buy equal shorts and puts [Smart]  Exit when prices are adequate for your p and l expectations[Serious]  Never forget about transaction or other fees
Super short straddle strategy summary
avatarAlice Arnault
2023-05-22

Events and companies to look out for this week

Tuesday, 05/23 – The Manufacturing PMI captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector, which contributes a significant part of total GDP; thus, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the U.S. Services PMI captures business conditions in the services sector;  Why? it is a crucial indicator since the services sector is responsible for over 77% of total U.S. GDP. Stronger-than-expected PMI readings would be inflationary, while weaker-than-expected data would suggest that the economy is cooling. 🌰 Suppose the Manufacturing PMI came in at 59.0, up from the previous month's 58.0, suggesting the manufacturing sector is expanding at a faster rate. Investors could look at companies such as Boeing (BA), Caterpillar
Events and companies to look out for this week
avatarAlice Arnault
2023-05-04

Technical analysis 101: PE ratio, Pros /Cons and Cases

Continuing on sharing on basics of analysis, Follow me @Alice Arnault and let us learn more together Previously i have commented on @nerdbull1669 and @KYHBKO Article and some have asked me to share more on this topic  Price to Earnings ratio is calculated as follows: P/E Ratio = Stock Price / Forward Earnings Per Share (EPS) The P/E ratio is widely used for several reasons: Strengths: a. Ease of calculation: The P/E ratio only requires two readily available data points - stock price and earnings per share. b. Simplicity: The metric is easy to interpret, as it represents the price an investor is willing to pa
Technical analysis 101: PE ratio, Pros /Cons and Cases
avatarAlice Arnault
2023-05-31

Buffett Inspirations: 4 times to consider to sell

Error of Judgment When You Invested: Every investor, no matter how savvy, can occasionally make a misstep. This error could be based on misinformation, incomplete data, or a failure to understand the full implications of a company's strategic position. For instance, imagine an investor who put money into a fledgling technology startup, based on its promising whitepapers and charismatic CEO. However, over time, it became apparent that the product was not gaining the expected market traction, and the company's financial health started deteriorating. Recognizing the error in judgment, the investor decided to sell the stocks, limiting their losses. The Company You Invested Had Management Problems: Company leadership and management are critical for its success. In some situations, an investo
Buffett Inspirations: 4 times to consider to sell
avatarAlice Arnault
2023-05-04

Diversified vs Buffett focused investment: Things to consider

 Follow me at@Alice Arnault and we can learn and earn more together  We are often asked to diversify to reduce our risks, thats why at times there are some discussions on why does Mr Buffett Says to focus, i summarized some points for sharing  Here are some points to consider when deciding whether to diversify or not: Risk tolerance: If you have a low risk tolerance, diversification can help spread the risk across multiple investments, reducing the impact of underperformance in any single investment. Time horizon: Diversification may be more suitable for those with a shorter investment time horizon, as the potential for market fluctuations could be more significant over shorter periods. Investment knowledge: If you
Diversified vs Buffett focused investment: Things to consider
avatarAlice Arnault
2023-05-03

Short notes on Travel industry investment

Attraction management : Largely returned to 2019 levels, difficulty in continued rise of prices at most times due to slow and difficult process in prices  Attraction entertainment : Good overall with no next epidemic, high margins Transport : PE ratios high for now Hotel and hospitality : Improving pictures  Plaform aggregators : This is similar to traditional travel Agencies , have pricing power with market power  Travel agencies
Short notes on Travel industry investment

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