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U.S. Consumer Sentiment Falls to Record Low, Inflation Outlook Improves

Reuters2022-06-24

June 24 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell to a record low in June, but Americans saw a marginal improvement in the outlook for inflation, a survey showed on Friday, a rare silver lining for Federal Reserve policymakers as they assess how quickly they need to raise interest rates this year.

The University of Michigan said its final consumer sentiment index reading for the month fell to 50.0 from 55.2 in May on the persistence of high inflation and rising fears of an economic slowdown. That compared with a preliminary reading of 50.2 earlier in June.

The survey's one-year inflation expectation was unchanged from May at 5.3%, but ticked down from a preliminary June reading of 5.4%. The five-year inflation outlook edged up to 3.1% from 3.0% in May, but was down from 3.3% earlier in June.

A poor preliminary reading two weeks ago, along with other worrying inflation data on the same day, caused the U.S. central bank to pivot to delivering a bigger-than-expected rate hike of 75 basis points last week on worries that inflation expectations were beginning to become unmoored.

The Fed has since signaled it will raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by either 50 or 75 basis points at its next policy meeting in July in a bid to more decisively dent inflation, calling that battle "unconditional."

The moderation in inflation expectations - particularly at the 5-year horizon - triggered a drop in yields on the Treasury securities most sensitive to Fed policy expectations.

The yield on the 2-year note dropped by as much as 10 basis points in the moments after the University of Michigan data was released. It was last at 3.04% versus 3.02% late on Thursday but still down 5 basis points from the day's high.

Interest rate futures also reacted following the report, with contracts tied to the Fed's July policy meeting now reflecting a 83.4% probability of another 75-basis-point rate hike versus 93.3% on Thursday. The likelihood of the Fed scaling back that pace to 50 basis points at its mid-September meeting was further solidified by the data.

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Comment41

  • ZenInv
    ·2022-06-25
    The next risk is deflation 
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  • Roarhigher
    ·2022-06-25
    Ok
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  • PearlynCSY
    ·2022-06-25
    Not ‘Putin’s price hike’: Fed chair contradicts Biden, says inflation was 'certainly' high before Russia’s Ukraine invasion. Inflation is still white-hot: U.S. consumer price index rose 8.6% in May from a year ago, marking the biggest jump since December 1981.Who’s responsible for the spiking price levels?President Joe Biden points to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, saying that “Putin’s price hike is hitting America hard” after seeing the latest inflation report.But Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell states otherwise.When asked whether he thinks the war in Ukraine was a primary cause of inflation in the U.S. at a committee hearing on Wednesday, Powell said, “No, inflation was high before — certainly before the war in Ukraine broke out.”
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  • PearlynCSY
    ·2022-06-25
    Dow rallies 800 points on Friday to cap big comeback week for stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied more than 800 points on Friday, rebounding off the lows of the bear market last week and capping its first weekly advance since May. The major averages wrapped up a big comeback week for stocks. The S&P 500 is up nearly 6.5% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 7.5%. The Dow is 5.4% higher. All three major averages snapped three-week losing streaks, as market participants deliberated whether markets have found a bottom. Still, many on Wall Street maintained a gloomy outlook. “We believe that bounce in U.S. equity markets over the past three trading days has been a bear market rally off deeply oversold conditions,” Wolfe Research’s Chris Senyek wrote in a Friday note
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  • Bunifa Latif
    ·2022-06-25
    No 
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  • xiaojn
    ·2022-06-25
    K
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  • Ah Ling
    ·2022-06-25
    Good
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  • Williamw
    ·2022-06-25
    Ok
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  • Seah CL
    ·2022-06-25
    K
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  • Seah CL
    ·2022-06-25
    K
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  • Doris11
    ·2022-06-25
    Like please 
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  • HappyTrade
    ·2022-06-25
    OK 
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  • TSY123
    ·2022-06-25
    Ok
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  • YJ Lee
    ·2022-06-25
    Ok
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  • PCK
    ·2022-06-25
    👍
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  • JCKL488
    ·2022-06-25
    Time to buy gold
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  • Chitz
    ·2022-06-25
    Like
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  • Mindthink
    ·2022-06-25
    Ok
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  • zincy
    ·2022-06-25
    Hi
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  • RPGold
    ·2022-06-25
    Good
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