警报拉响！美股牛市已高处不胜寒？

腾讯美股 2021-04-19

总而言之，投资者最好还是尊重一下历史，毕竟标普500指数市盈率攀升到30，且盈利见顶的情况，历史上只在二十年前和现在出现过。诚然，美股牛市可能还会继续一段时间，但是投资者不保持谨慎，不保持警惕，显然是不可取的。上周五的交易日当中，在对经济复苏前景的充分信心鼓舞下，标普500指数再度刷新历史收盘点位纪录。这也就意味着，美股市场已经来到一个微妙的节点——市盈率极端高企，每股盈利达到历史性高点，这样的...

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纽约华人雷只做啊甘投资法
·2021-04-20
這文章2018年好像見過！2020年3月份改版過！
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1
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Paulyang
·2021-04-20
股市一定是有漲有跌的。漲這麼高，會不會意味着很快就要下跌呢？
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2
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飞车手
·2021-04-20
666
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2
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鸟语花香在坡县
·2021-04-20
[微笑]
Reply
1
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云里梦里飞
·2021-04-20
世界兩大錯覺：美股到頂 A股到底
Reply
3
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阿麦小乔
·2021-04-20
成長股都慘不忍睹
Reply
1
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haiwei183
·2021-04-20
危= 機？離場還是等低價進場？
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2
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RUMBLE
·2021-04-20
看你耐寒不？?
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1
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53570b80
·2021-04-20
經濟亂象危機並行
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1
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花喵喵
·2021-04-20
[吃瓜]
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2
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Ikhas
·2021-04-20
elasticity
Reply
2
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袁秋萫lD1280577
·2021-04-20
只能說三隻腳的，不是機會，一定是大事情情發生！??????
Reply
4
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hhyw
·2021-04-20
跌吧，跌個50％吧????
Reply
2
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Fold Replies
- hhyw:
  已经买跌了??
  2021-04-20
  Reply
  Report
- 尼克欢:
  你这是打算买入还是已经做空了
  2021-04-20
  Reply
  Report
- 云里梦里飞:
  想多了 5%就有一堆人进去抄底
  2021-04-20
  Reply
  Report
View more 2 comments
馒头卡喉咙啦
·2021-04-20
漲
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2
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Fold Replies
- hhyw:
  跌吧，股价已经太高了?
  2021-04-20
  Reply
  Report
SunnyLeo
·2021-04-20
科技拉動經濟，指數增長，風險控制就好，不要太過焦慮
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2
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Fold Replies
- 阿麦小乔:
  [强]
  2021-04-20
  Reply
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HANDM
·2021-04-20
繼續持倉
Reply
1
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赚大啦
·2021-04-20
股市不是賭場，不需要有人賠纔能有人賺。當然可以大家都賺，美國那麼多好公司，百年來極大的提高了人類的生產力水平，創造了財富
Reply
1
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Fold Replies
- 尼克欢:
  顶头像也?[开心]
  2021-04-20
  Reply
  Report
- 云里梦里飞:
  基本面支撑？
  2021-04-20
  Reply
  Report
- SunnyLeo:
  总会有人焦虑
  2021-04-20
  Reply
  Report
loon0406
·2021-04-20
[得意]
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Like
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新加坡的大螃蟹
·2021-04-20
說說你對這篇新聞的看法...
Reply
2
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JingLing
·2021-04-20
[流淚]
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The bull market in U.S. stocks is already too high to be cold?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e1c87d4b9cc5011270a16c16f9eeb3c","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"总而言之，投资者最好还是尊重一下历史，毕竟标普500指数市盈率攀升到30，且盈利见顶的情况，历史上只在二十年前和现在出现过。诚然，美股牛市可能还会继续一段时间，但是投资者不保持谨慎，不保持警惕，显然是不可取的。上周五的交易日当中，在对经济复苏前景的充分信心鼓舞下，标普500指数再度刷新历史收盘点位纪录。这也就意味着，美股市场已经来到一个微妙的节点——市盈率极端高企，每股盈利达到历史性高点，这样的情况史上一共就出现过两次，分别是2000年9月和现在。以4185.47点的收盘点位计算，指数相对于“正常”盈利（见后文）已经来到了30以上。第一眼看上去，30的市盈率似乎也没有多可怕，毕竟去年6月的时候，最基础版本的市盈率，即基于过去四个季度通用会计准则净盈利记录的市盈率，曾经一度达到31，而那时候，大盘的点位较之现在还要低大约26%。到了去年第四季度结束的时候，市盈率，更是一度曾经达到近40。然而，这一数字当时并没有让牛派受到任何困扰，事实就是，标普500指数从那时开始还进入了狂欢派对模式。关键在于，在经济受到疫情深度折磨的大背景下，用扭曲局面下的盈利去度量股票价格到底是昂贵还是低廉，这种做法已经彻底失掉了意义。比如，从2019年第四季度到2020年第四季度，企业盈利有三分之一灰飞烟灭，于是，各种估值指标都因此窜升到了极高的水平。显而易见，伴随疫情危机逐渐成为过去，企业利润将会从低点大幅反弹。想要判断当今的股价到底在价格光谱上处于昂贵还是低廉的区间，进而据此预测股市未来的走向，首先必须得到一个关键的参照物，“正常化利润”。具体而言就是，当复苏最终落实时，标普企业最可能获得的盈利。在这里，可以使用2019年第四季度的每股盈利数据，年化后为139.47美元。选用2019年的数据，主要有两个原因。首先，2019年的利润不但绝对高度创下了历史纪录，而且相对于销售额和其他项目的相对高度，也处在历史性的高水平。这也就意味着，未来真正出现的正常化利润想要超越其水平，难度将大幅提高。尽管牛派可能会坚持说，30的市盈率不成其为问题，因为2021年的利润甚至会让2019年相形见绌。其次，哪怕是在2019年的强势经济之下，每个季度的盈利也基本上没有多大的变化，这就意味着企业利润相对于基本面已经达到了很高的水平，因此盈利已经没有多少进一步增长的空间了。哪怕现在，素来都以超级乐观闻名的华尔街分析师们，整体而言，也不过是预计2021年第二季度的每股盈利年化将达到与2019年第四季度持平的139美元。简而言之，就企业利润而言，重归那个峰值是2021年最可能发生的一幕。历史角度看来，标普500指数失业率超过30，都是发生在盈利大幅下滑，甚至崩溃的周期当中，唯一一个例外就是当下。比如，1999年第四季度，互联网泡沫峰值将至时，指数市盈率曾经达到30.5，而当时，每股盈利又处在历史性的高水平，这就等于释放出了一个警报。投资者事实上就是在为每1美元的盈利开出超过30美元的价格，而这盈利已经是强弩之末，很难再进一步了。虽然每股盈利后来又坚持了一阵子，至2000年第三季度再创新高，达到了53.70美元，但是之后整整四年时间里，每股盈利都再未能回到那个水平。创纪录的利润出现时，标普500指数也在2000年9月1日达到了接近最高纪录的1518点。当时，指数在之前四年当中累计上涨了120%。总之，最适合拿来和当今对比的，也许正是2000年的那段时间。毕竟，标普500指数每股盈利和点位同时达到峰值，只有这么两次。二十年前的2000年9月1日，标普500指数的传统市盈率为26.75。从这个角度来看，今天的市盈率为30，比当初还要高出12%。不过，单单市盈率显然无法体现市场的全景。比如说，如果将基本面拿来参照，则2000年的每股盈利其实要比2021年还要高。从这个角度说，当时的市盈率实质上要比看上去更高，因为利润注定将要走低，而现在的市盈率实质上则比看上去要更低，因为利润水平将会大幅上扬。虽然需要纳入考虑的各种因素错综复杂，积极与消极互见，但是整体而言，企业利润水平2019年第四季度看上去和科技泡沫巅峰时差不多，都是处于各自相对的周期内的高点，甚至前者还要更高一点。比如，2019年全年，标普500指数盈利合计相当于国民收入的5.4%，比起截至2000年9月的四个季度的4.4%还要高出一个百分点。从营业利润相对于销售额的比例，即所谓营业利润率来看，2019年的数字达到了11.1%，比起二十年前的周期更高出4个百分点。不过，二十年前指数的股本回报率确实要好于2019年，以17.5%领先于15.5%。虽然不是所有，但是显然，大多数指标都显示，2019年的企业利润要相对高于2000年，现在姑且保守一点，就假定两者是在同一水平线上。总而言之，这是美股历史上仅有的两段市盈率达到很高的30上下，同时盈利达到历史性高点的周期。从这比较当中，能够得到关于标普500指数当下和未来的怎样的线索呢？如果投资者是之前就已经入场，那么股市大繁荣之下，市盈率一路攀升到30，对于他们而言当然是好消息。不过，如果投资者是现在才准备入场，或者准备不兑现利得，继续持有美国大型股票指数，那对于他们而言，这可就不是什么好消息了。关于这一点，看看2000年9月1日之后发生了什么，就再清楚不过了。标普500指数进入了漫长的下滑通道，直至2003年3月11日跌至801点，过程当中损失幅度达到47%。指数重新回到2000年9月的水平，已经是七年之后，即2007年9月的事情了。众所周知，在那之后，由于全球金融危机的缘故，等待着指数的是又一条新的下滑通道，等到再度攀升到1500点以上，已经是2013年的3月了。换言之，在一段长达十二年的周期之内，如果不计算股息收益的话，指数能够为投资者提供的回报率就是一个巨大的零蛋。当然，美股未来是否会遭遇类似于当年互联网泡沫破灭之后那种暴跌的惨剧，是谁也不可能准确预测到的。目前，牛派的预期是，两大有利的顺丰因素驱动下，美股将进入全速航行模式，这两者即，快速增长的企业利润将大幅超越2019年，以及超低利率在未来几年还将继续保持，不断提供支持。这两个可能性当然都不能完全排除，但是客观而言，又都不是很大概率的事情。至于要从两者当中得到多大好处，则概率还会进一步降低。首先来看看企业利润。如前所述，2019年的峰值利润已经相当于国民收入的5.4%，攀上历史性的高点了。盈利要像华尔街所预计的那样，增速超过国内生产总值，就意味着利润的相对比例还需要进一步提升，这显然很难指望。更何况，上周结束时，标普500强的总市值相对于国民收入的比例已经达到了令人瞠目结舌的161%，比2000年时 的130%还要高出近四分之一，较之过去二十年的平均数字更是高出近一倍，这就意味着，利润占比想要提升，难度还将进一步增大。现在，工资在停滞多年后终于开始上涨，而企业税率很可能在拜登政府任内大幅度提升，在这种情况下，盈利要保持高过国民收入160%的水平，就已经需要利润进一步扩张了，指望利润扩张再扩张，这任务未免太过艰难。至于利率方面，牛派所指望的是，未来几年当中，十年期国债收益率的上涨速度将持续低于国内生产总值的增长速度，这是一切预期的前提，但遗憾的是，这样的事情在历史上极少发生。事实是，根据通货膨胀调整后的真实利率在正常情况下，其上涨速度是与经济增长同步的\"，而真实利率变成负数的周期，往往都极为短暂。今天收益率甚至不及通货膨胀率的现象，最合理的解读只能是，这只是一个历史的例外，是一种经济遭受多少年都仅此一次的严重疫情打击后，出现的特殊现象。总而言之，大家最好还是尊重一下历史，毕竟标普500指数市盈率攀升到30，且盈利见顶的情况，历史上只在二十年前和现在出现过。诚然，美股牛市可能还会继续一段时间，但是投资者不保持谨慎，不保持警惕，显然是不可取的。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":373724044,"gmtCreate":1618885473888,"gmtModify":1704716352065,"author":{"id":"3549480766038176","authorId":"3549480766038176","name":"纽约华人雷只做啊甘投资法","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1a8428715fa0fedab828700a8f47240","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3549480766038176","idStr":"3549480766038176"},"htmlText":"這文章2018年好像見過！2020年3月份改版過！","listText":"這文章2018年好像見過！2020年3月份改版過！","text":"這文章2018年好像見過！2020年3月份改版過！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373724044","repostId":1147524572,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":373452715,"gmtCreate":1618879821137,"gmtModify":1704716228759,"author":{"id":"3573356109011085","authorId":"3573356109011085","name":"Paulyang","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573356109011085","idStr":"3573356109011085"},"htmlText":"股市一定是有漲有跌的。漲這麼高，會不會意味着很快就要下跌呢？","listText":"股市一定是有漲有跌的。漲這麼高，會不會意味着很快就要下跌呢？","text":"股市一定是有漲有跌的。漲這麼高，會不會意味着很快就要下跌呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373452715","repostId":1147524572,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":373420683,"gmtCreate":1618878997442,"gmtModify":1704716204246,"author":{"id":"3558600224159473","authorId":"3558600224159473","name":"飞车手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf0759d20d5ebdba8ca5268455b124b8","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3558600224159473","idStr":"3558600224159473"},"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373420683","repostId":1147524572,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":373485554,"gmtCreate":1618878286378,"gmtModify":1704716186440,"author":{"id":"3574808464374306","authorId":"3574808464374306","name":"鸟语花香在坡县","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9913b1aabb645acdb516c5ee1b1c67a","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574808464374306","idStr":"3574808464374306"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/373485554","repostId":1147524572,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":373491558,"gmtCreate":1618876733974,"gmtModify":1704716139506,"author":{"id":"3568431359478653","authorId":"3568431359478653","name":"云里梦里飞","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db96756ff214a0066bf8ab2c997583b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3568431359478653","idStr":"3568431359478653"},"htmlText":"世界兩大錯覺：美股到頂 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