冈拉克：长期以来美联储都在操纵市场

金十数据2021-05-18

现在距离30年美债收益率到顶还差得很远，这是一个值得警惕的风险因素。 DoubleLine Capital的创始人兼首席执行官杰弗里·冈拉克（Jeffrey Gundlach）表示： “ 美联储长期以来一直在操纵市场。由于数量惊人的刺激，资产估值已经非常非常高。自从美联储开始量化宽松以来，美联储不断扩大资产负债表与标准普尔500指数之间就存在着某种联系，这就像是物理定律。如果将标普500的...

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Miaw
·2021-05-19
有時真給市場玩死
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- AB_Iphone:
  以不变应万变
  2021-05-19
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- AB_Iphone:
  好吧
  2021-05-19
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Jerry6666
·2021-05-18
ok
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Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"Gundlach: The Fed has been manipulating the market for a long time","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4e16f4bad2d87921939afaccda33b3c","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"现在距离30年美债收益率到顶还差得很远，这是一个值得警惕的风险因素。\n\nDoubleLine Capital的创始人兼首席执行官杰弗里·冈拉克（Jeffrey Gundlach）表示：\n\n “\n 美联储长期以来一直在操纵市场。由于数量惊人的刺激，资产估值已经非常非常高。自从美联储开始量化宽松以来，美联储不断扩大资产负债表与标准普尔500指数之间就存在着某种联系，这就像是物理定律。如果将标普500的市值除以美联储的资产负债表，看起来就是一个常数。即使从历史水平来看股市估值很高，但跟债券比相比，还是低于均值。”\n\n上周三，美国劳工统计局报告称，4月的CPI比3月份上涨了0.8％，远远超出市场预期。除去食品和能源，核心通货膨胀率较上个月上涨了0.9％，是自1982年以来的最大单月涨幅。此外，与去年同期相比，4月份CPI上涨了4.2％，增幅快于预期，是自2008年9月以来的最大涨幅。\n4月CPI高于DoubleLine的预测。冈拉克说，DoubleLine Capital的模型预测通货膨胀率可能在未来几个月内上升，并可能在7月达到顶峰。\n\n “如果通胀继续走高，那么人们会担心通胀是否是暂时的。\n 现在距离30年美债收益率到顶还差得很远，这是一个值得警惕的风险因素。”\n\n在机会方面，曾非常看好大宗商品的冈拉克表示，短期商品涨幅过大。\n冈拉克认为，到年底美元可能会有所上涨。\n自一月份以来，冈拉克的建议是持有浮动利率的公司债券，如银行贷款，如the InvescoSenior Loan (BKLN) ETTF。\n\n “2020年BKLN基本都是净流出，因为人们认为在相当长的时期为零利率，但现在人们开始转变思路，觉得短端利率最终也会上行。银行贷款与其他投资级债券比，具有相同期限或更长的期限，因此，我倾向银行贷款。”\n\nDoubleLine最近还首次买入了欧洲股票。冈拉克称：\n\n “我们从未持有过任何欧洲股票。我们不喜欢欧洲的负利率，并且欧元区有各种结构性问题。DoubleLine的长期观点是美元走低，这对欧洲股票来说是个利好因素。欧洲股市今年的表现与美国股市基本相同或略好。这是另外一个正在改变的趋势。就像纳斯达克指数不再跑赢标准普尔500指数一样，突然之间，非美股市开始涨了，欧洲股市开始略胜一筹。”\n\n虽然还为时过早，但冈拉克长期看好新兴市场股票。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":194825955,"gmtCreate":1621356454677,"gmtModify":1704356385276,"author":{"id":"3569028586400878","authorId":"3569028586400878","name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorIdStr":"3569028586400878"},"htmlText":"有時真給市場玩死","listText":"有時真給市場玩死","text":"有時真給市場玩死","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194825955","repostId":1167406373,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4369574,"gmtCreate":1621356628922,"gmtModify":1680789541006,"authorId":3574395209516109,"author":{"id":3574395209516109,"idStr":"3574395209516109","authorId":3574395209516109,"name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":194825955,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"以不变应万变","text":"以不变应万变","html":"以不变应万变"},{"id":4369591,"gmtCreate":1621356914949,"gmtModify":1680789540209,"authorId":3574395209516109,"author":{"id":3574395209516109,"idStr":"3574395209516109","authorId":3574395209516109,"name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":194825955,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"好吧","text":"好吧","html":"好吧"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":194804242,"gmtCreate":1621351280886,"gmtModify":1704356307263,"author":{"id":"3582603564454110","authorId":"3582603564454110","name":"Jerry6666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/341ac0d8c7e78a01f49f688b745e56f4","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582603564454110","authorIdStr":"3582603564454110"},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194804242","repostId":1167406373,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":27,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}