After President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance last month, Wall Street began factoring a Trump victory in November. Saturday's shooting at former U.S. President Donald Trump's election rally raises his odds of winning back the White House and betting on his victory will increase, investors said.
Markets have been taking their cue from the probability of Trump’s election victory. Here is a look at the stocks and assets that are likely to be impacted and how as Trump trades are coming:
Trump-linked stocks
Investors expect stocks related to Donald Trump to move in tandem with the chances of his winning the presidency. These include Trump Media & Technology, in which the former president owns a majority stake, software firm Phunware and video-sharing platform Rumble.
Cryptocurrency&Crypto Stocks
The former president, who has positioned himself as pro-crypto, is scheduled to speak at an upcoming Bitcoin conference in Nashville, despite a recent assassination attempt in Pennsylvania.
The event, known for drawing global attendees, is expected to host about 20,000 people this year, prompting enhanced security measures. BTC Inc. CEO David Bailey confirmed Trump's participation, noting increased collaboration with security teams to ensure safety.
Trump's appearance is significant as betting markets like Polymarket suggest he has a high chance of winning the upcoming election, which could spur a broader crypto rally given his increasingly crypto-friendly stance.
Financials
UBS accounts for the prospect of less stringent capital and liquidity rules and easing financial regulation under a second Trump administration.
The brokerage sees benefits for big banks like JPMorgan & Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and smaller lenders including Discover Financial, KeyCorp and Synchrony Financial.
Companies That Support Trump
Billionaire Elon Musk has donated to a super political action committee working to elect Donald Trump to the White House, a major gambit by the world’s richest person to make his imprint on the US political landscape.
Apple CEO Tim Cook, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai and Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos “condemned” the attack and wished Trump a quick recovery.
Oil Companies
Increased oil and natural gas investment, more drilling activity and higher natural gas exports could benefit producers such as Exxon Mobil, Cheniere Energy and ConocoPhillips under Trump 2.0.
Tariffs
A second Trump administration is expected to be much more protectionist in terms of import tariffs. “The consumer discretionary sector is exposed in that environment,” UBS analysts say.
As president, Trump started a tariff war with China and has floated tariffs of 60% or higher on all Chinese goods and a 10% or higher universal tariff on all imports, a move he says will eliminate the trade deficit.
U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports could help domestic manufacturers, namely legacy carmakers Ford and General Motors and steel producers such as Nucor and Steel Dynamics, UBS analysts say.
Semiconductor Manufacturing
Given the fierce competition with China on semiconductor chips, UBS expects a second Trump government to drive support for domestic semiconductor manufacturing companies such as Applied Materials, KLA Corp, Intel and Texas Instruments.
M&A--Related Beneficiaries
A second Trump administration would likely take a more lenient approach to antitrust regulation enforcement in the world’s biggest economy, according to J.P.Morgan analysts.
UBS expects banks such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Lazard and Evercore, which benefit from M&A activities, to gain from such a policy change.
PHARMACEUTICALS AND INSURERS
UBS sees a lower risk of drug price cuts and an inclination towards Medicare Advantage in a Republican-dominated government, which could help drugmakers Eli Lilly and Company and Merck, as well as health insurers such as Humana and UnitedHealth.