换电赛道异军突起

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换电赛道异军突起

诗与星空2022-01-02

最近，蔚来创始人李斌表示：我简直就完全不明白，为什么现在还有人在买油车，完全想不明白。一语激起千层浪，掀起了传统燃油车和电动车的新一轮争论。虽然这句话有营销的成分，但毋庸置疑，电动车已经势不可挡。据乘联会数据，2021年11月，新能源车零售渗透率达到了20.8%。这是一个具有里程碑意义的数据。意味着整个行业已经不再是政策推动，而是靠消费者自主选择来快速前进了。如果说十年前还在讨论新能源车尤其是...

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Fenger1188
·2022-01-02
👍🏻
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4
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Kokkeng1119
·2022-01-02
Nio[財迷]
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1
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TimeOut
·2022-01-02
ok
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TimeOut
·2022-01-02
說說你對這篇新聞的看法...
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Alexkoay
·2022-01-02
[微笑]
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1
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hhyw
·2022-01-02
請點贊
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CYau
·2022-01-02
Like and comment?
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1
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不死鸟.
·2022-01-02
未來的發展趨勢👍
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choysk86
·2022-01-02
👍🏻
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bethoven
·2022-01-02
Good sharing
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Li Guixi
·2022-01-02
贊👍
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40032-2021《电动汽车换电安全要求》国家标准正式实施，该标准为国家市场监管总局（国家标准委）于4月份批准发布，这是在中国汽车制造业在换电行业制订的第一个基本通用性国家行业标准。截至2021年10月，中国共计建成换电站1086座，同比增长超过100%。虽然目前换电站的建设已初见规模，但是相比于充电模式，换电模式的体量相对还小，发展空间较大。有报道称，国家能源局会同工信部研究的《关于进一步提升充换电基础设施服务保障能力的实施意见》将于近日正式出台。在政策推动下，换电模式中难点逐步突破，有机构则预计2025年换电车型占比将达30%，由此对应带来3000亿元的市场规模。电补贴一度被称为“蔚来专用”，其实不仅蔚来，东风、奥动、北汽、长安、上汽、吉利等企业都已经切入换电赛道。其中规划最为激进的奥动新能源，计划5年内完成1万座换电站投建。蔚来、奥动都和中石化签署了合作协议，根据中石化方面的消息，中石化未来规划5000座换电站。考虑到中石化的加油站中有大量的国道站、乡村站以及市区面积很小的站，因此5000座站大概是中石化能够部署换电站的极限。除了普通乘用有望部分采用换电路线外，换电重卡已经走上台前。2021年10月28日，工信部《关于启动新能源汽车换电模式应用试点工作的通知》中，首次将换电重卡纳入试点。特斯拉的概念车还未上市，已经有多家中国企业推出了国产换电重卡。2新能源车一定是多种技术路线并行笔者认为，新能源车的高速发展，背后是战略原因，并非简单的为了环保。首先是出于能源自主可控的需要。中国的原油对外依存度高达73%，原油进口金额仅次于芯片，2020年原油进口超过2600亿美元，其中60%的原油被炼制成成品油烧掉。中国石化集团有限公司董事长、中国工程院院士马永生表示：中国要加快结构优化，立足国内保障能源供给。以清洁低碳为导向，加快发展非化石能源，构建煤、油、气、核、新能源、可再生能源多元化能源供应体系，使非化石能源到2025年成为消费增量的主体，能源体系到2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和。其次是出于核心工业换道超车的需要。据国家统计局数据，2020年，中国规模以上工业企业营业收入达到106.14万亿元，同比增长0.8%，营业成本为89.04万亿元，同比增0.6%；实现利润总额6.45万亿元；营业收入利润率约为6.08%。其中，汽车制造业营业收入达到8.16万亿元，同比增长3.4%，占到总体工业企业营收的7.68%，仅次于计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业。汽车类消费占整个社会消费品零售总额超过十分之一，占GDP比重超过4%。直接关联行业占GDP比重8%以上。如果考虑到汽车产业的上下游，拉动的钢铁、橡胶、石化产品等行业的影响，汽车及其相关产业，估算占GDP比重在15%以上。所以，汽车工业也有工业制造业的王冠之称，衡量一个国家制造业是否强大，汽车工业是最重要的指标。而中国的汽车工业起步比较晚，在传统燃油车领域，时至今日，在发动机、变速箱等核心技术方面，尚未跟上国际平均水平。现在则有了一个换道超车的机会：新能源车。从这个角度看，中国的新能源车产业不会重犯燃油车时代的错误，把鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里，导致过度依赖石油。必然是多种路线并行，充电、换电、氢能源、天然气甚至合成燃料都会有一席之地。其中，从政策层面，换电模式受到大力提倡。通过补贴扶持起本国独有的产品线，将来发展起来，会具有独特的竞争力。3产业链的机遇和风险除了名声在外的蔚来，上文提到的奥动新能源已经是最大的独立第三方换电站建设企业。企查查显示，公司的实控人是蔡东青，蔡东青做奥迪玩具起家，名下还有一家上市公司，叫奥飞娱乐。新能源是重资产行业，换电池成本高昂，初期还很难盈利。不难想象，特别缺钱的时候，大股东很有可能会从上市公司抽血。果不其然，据公告，蔡东青不断减持奥飞娱乐的股份，还质押了一部分股权，通过各种途径来套取资金。在《极速焕新能源格局共享赋能城市出行》主题演讲中，奥动对外公布“红色奥动战略计划”，打造100个以上城市级换电服务网络，建设5000座以上20秒极速换电站，形成服务200万车辆规模以上的多品牌车型共享换电平台。笔者曾经见过几个北汽新能源的出租车换电站，虽然外观不像蔚来换电站那样高端大气，但全自动无人值守，换电速度甚至超过加油。目前换电站的规模还不算太大，整个行业也处于刚起步，但充满了机会。从产业链视角来看，主要分三大板块。一是设备生产商。A股换电相关上市公司包括协鑫能科、翰川智能、博众精工、山东威达和科大智能。其中，山东威达是蔚来的供应商，其余几家主要从事风电、智能制造、消费电子等领域，做换电站是“兼职”。二是电池商。换电行业对动力电池的需求和充电是完全一样的，受益的依然是从事动力电池的企业，如宁德时代、国轩高科等。三是运营商。奥动新能源、蔚来以、中石化以及参与换电业务的一部分主机厂商，都属于换电站运营方。运营商又分为三大类，一是独立第三方换电站，如奥动新能源；二是主机厂商的换电站，如蔚来、北汽等；三是中石化这样的场地合作方。对于投资者来说，选择行业一定要选择利润留存最多的节点。从新能源发展过程合理推测，整个换电站行业中，动力电池行业已经进入红海阶段，竞争激烈，毛利率不会太高；部分头部设备生产商会有不错的毛利率；而运营商初期属于重资产运作，主要靠融资烧钱竞争。比如蔚来开始推出组电池的政策，受到不少车主的欢迎。车电分离有利于缓解电动车主对电池衰减的焦虑，电池租赁可以一直将电池维持在比较新的状态，还可以降低电池使用成本：市区代步用短续航电池节约租金，长途远行用长巡航电池增加里程。尤其是换电行业国家标准的出台，有利于规范市场，最终实现跨品牌统一电池标准，如此一来，才会成为一个坚不可摧的新能源细分行业。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9001997668,"gmtCreate":1641134865454,"gmtModify":1676533574939,"author":{"id":"4088149090977750","authorId":"4088149090977750","name":"Fenger1188","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/184410bf08b3311824fc2e583144b220","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c5ceab71416b120bab4604c0754b52a","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4088149090977750","authorIdStr":"4088149090977750"},"htmlText":"👍🏻","listText":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001997668","repostId":1190319650,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":692407516,"gmtCreate":1641126486543,"gmtModify":1676532515170,"author":{"id":"3581753589389427","authorId":"3581753589389427","name":"Kokkeng1119","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3581753589389427","authorIdStr":"3581753589389427"},"htmlText":"Nio[財迷]&nbsp;","listText":"Nio[財迷]&nbsp;","text":"Nio[財迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/692407516","repostId":1190319650,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":9001053916,"gmtCreate":1641113643759,"gmtModify":1676533573700,"author":{"id":"3586486814388193","authorId":"3586486814388193","name":"TimeOut","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/a141f0ff1c28854c7fe1e4894b897921","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3586486814388193","authorIdStr":"3586486814388193"},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9001053916","repostId":1190319650,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9001059724,"gmtCreate":1641113633764,"gmtModify":1676533573734,"author":{"id":"3586486814388193","authorId":"3586486814388193","name":"TimeOut","avatar":"https://static.itradeup.com/news/a141f0ff1c28854c7fe1e4894b897921","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3586486814388193","authorIdStr":"3586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