央行和市场都面临转折点！美联储已不再是美股的好朋友了

华尔街见闻2021-05-26

剑桥大学皇后学院的院长、安联集团首席经济顾问、前PIMCO总裁El-Erian近日在英国金融时报上发表专栏文章，提醒市场，如今央行和市场都面临棘手的转折点，与其沉溺于宽松流动性带来短期欢愉，应该忍受阵痛，防止再犯上一次金融危机时的错误。 El-Erian认为，和2008年金融危机时期相比，目前银行业的资本金更为充足，在风险承担方面也受到更多限制，但引爆金融危机的投机心态和风险行为并没有就此消散，...

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Yunjuan
·2021-05-26
??
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Kyorilys
·2021-05-26
慘兮兮的
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- Munhong11Replying toKyorilys:
  [开心]
  2021-06-02
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- Kyorilys:
  [惊讶]
  2021-06-01
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- Munhong11Replying toKyorilys:
  来
  2021-06-01
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巴特菲2021
·2021-05-26
當然不是好朋友啦，都是一家人啊。。。
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龙疼虎乐
·2021-05-26
美聯儲沒那麼快變臉[開心] 還的堅持幾個月呢[財迷] 不着急慢慢來
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- 瀚妈:
  Ok
  2021-05-26
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CodyTang
·2021-05-26
套路
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- Jerry6666:
  [得意]
  2021-05-26
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stocks","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74202192a3825a737e2f43638d8b64b6","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QID":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"剑桥大学皇后学院的院长、安联集团首席经济顾问、前PIMCO总裁El-Erian近日在英国金融时报上发表专栏文章，提醒市场，如今央行和市场都面临棘手的转折点，与其沉溺于宽松流动性带来短期欢愉，应该忍受阵痛，防止再犯上一次金融危机时的错误。\nEl-Erian认为，和2008年金融危机时期相比，目前银行业的资本金更为充足，在风险承担方面也受到更多限制，但引爆金融危机的投机心态和风险行为并没有就此消散，相反，它们已经转化、迁移并滋生在非银行实体中。而直到最近，中央银行和其他监管机构一直坚守的准则，无意中充当了助推器。\n为什么说金融体系依然脆弱？El-Erian表示，今年以来，金融体系已经克服了三次险情：分别是1月份美债收益率的突然上升、2月份散户投资者借着GameStop股票割机构韭菜、以及3月份Archegos世纪爆仓事件，后者给银行体系造成了约100亿美元的损失。虽然这三次险情给金融体系构成的系统性威胁并不大，但显然，金融体系容易受到市场崩溃的影响，这使得经济面临不必要的风险。\nEl-Erian批评了监管者，特别是中央银行在其中起到的推波助澜作用。他表示，上述三次险情给金融体系造成的不良二次影响，更多是靠运气因素所遏制，而非危机防范措施。而由中央银行海量流动性助长的投机行为又“死灰复燃”了起来，与之相伴的是大量投机性头寸的出现。然后，有些因素不应被忽略，他们就像火药一样，一旦被点燃将会导致严重的金融事故发生。\n但所幸的是，在震荡的通货膨胀和金融不稳定阴影之下，中央银行似乎“觉醒”了：包括英国央行、欧洲央行、美联储在内的多家央行都释放了提早结束宽松货币政策的信号。美联储虽然淡化了市场对通胀的担忧，并重申美联储没有考虑削减QE，但上周公布的美联储政策会议纪要显示表明，一些官员希望 \"在未来的会议上 \"谈论缩减QE的可能性。\n央行所释放的收紧政策信号引发了金融市场的小幅震荡。El-Erian认为，如果因为忌惮市场反应过大而等待太久，美联储面临着复杂的政治转向，特别是考虑到联储已经沦为“平均通胀目标”政策框架的“人质”，这一框架在El-Erian看来并不适用于后新冠疫情时代的经济结构变化。\n他表示，当前的美联储如果转变货币政策立场，将带来市场波动和信誉丧失的双重风险。但如果联储谨遵教条，坚持后视的政策立场，则会给金融体系带来更大的危害。“就投资者而言，应该鼓励美联储及早转向，而不是仅仅沉浸在流动性浪潮的欢愉之下。从金融危机时期银行的经验中吸取教训，与其冒着犯损害资产价值、市场运作、经济、社会福祉的重大政治错误，不如迎接短期的阵痛。”El-Erian建议。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":132039048,"gmtCreate":1622043691784,"gmtModify":1704178471483,"author":{"id":"3568774272934412","authorId":"3568774272934412","name":"Yunjuan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb7a79fb2420509d517b2b9e7884b296","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568774272934412","authorIdStr":"3568774272934412"},"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132039048","repostId":2138117175,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":136474785,"gmtCreate":1622037917447,"gmtModify":1704178309575,"author":{"id":"3561982385149076","authorId":"3561982385149076","name":"Kyorilys","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3586bb300cfe1a9a7c43f47bc1d416","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561982385149076","authorIdStr":"3561982385149076"},"htmlText":"慘兮兮的","listText":"慘兮兮的","text":"慘兮兮的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/136474785","repostId":2138117175,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4533741,"gmtCreate":1622563956567,"gmtModify":1680792462386,"authorId":3565776822036269,"author":{"id":3565776822036269,"idStr":"3565776822036269","authorId":3565776822036269,"name":"Munhong11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac2aadbca505f0f5a44ddffa66be566","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3561982385149076,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3561982385149076,"idStr":"3561982385149076","authorId":3561982385149076,"name":"Kyorilys","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3586bb300cfe1a9a7c43f47bc1d416","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":136474785,"type":1,"supId":4520626,"prevId":4520834,"content":"[开心]","text":"[开心]","html":"[开心]"},{"id":4520834,"gmtCreate":1622500998313,"gmtModify":1680792231960,"authorId":3561982385149076,"author":{"id":3561982385149076,"idStr":"3561982385149076","authorId":3561982385149076,"name":"Kyorilys","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3586bb300cfe1a9a7c43f47bc1d416","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":136474785,"type":1,"supId":4520626,"prevId":0,"content":"[惊讶]","text":"[惊讶]","html":"[惊讶]"},{"id":4520629,"gmtCreate":1622499927287,"gmtModify":1680792230921,"authorId":3565776822036269,"author":{"id":3565776822036269,"idStr":"3565776822036269","authorId":3565776822036269,"name":"Munhong11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac2aadbca505f0f5a44ddffa66be566","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3561982385149076,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3561982385149076,"idStr":"3561982385149076","authorId":3561982385149076,"name":"Kyorilys","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3586bb300cfe1a9a7c43f47bc1d416","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":136474785,"type":1,"supId":4513504,"prevId":4514190,"content":"来","text":"来","html":"来"},{"id":4520626,"gmtCreate":1622499920084,"gmtModify":1680792227631,"authorId":3565776822036269,"author":{"id":3565776822036269,"idStr":"3565776822036269","authorId":3565776822036269,"name":"Munhong11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fac2aadbca505f0f5a44ddffa66be566","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":136474785,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[开心]","text":"[开心]","html":"[开心]"},{"id":4514188,"gmtCreate":1622429104690,"gmtModify":1680792114089,"authorId":3561982385149076,"author":{"id":3561982385149076,"idStr":"3561982385149076","authorId":3561982385149076,"name":"Kyorilys","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3586bb300cfe1a9a7c43f47bc1d416","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":136474785,"type":1,"supId":4513500,"prevId":0,"content":"[流泪]","text":"[流泪]","html":"[流泪]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":136475740,"gmtCreate":1622037892080,"gmtModify":1704178307441,"author":{"id":"3575877386336075","authorId":"3575877386336075","name":"巴特菲2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f359d60a65242b63882431568c8436a","vip":1,"crmL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